UAV market to top $13 billion by 2014

Citation

(2006), "UAV market to top $13 billion by 2014", Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, Vol. 78 No. 2. https://doi.org/10.1108/aeat.2006.12778baf.009

UAV market to top $13 billion by 2014

UAV market to top $13 billion by 2014

Keywords: Aircraft, Aerospace industry

Five years ago few would have imagined the US Air Force would enthusiastically announce that it was expanding the number of predator unmanned air vehicle (UAV) squadrons from 3 to 15. However, according to Forecast International unmanned vehicles analyst Larry Dickerson, the global war on terrorism has prompted the USA to pump significant amounts of money into its UAV programs.

The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems – including air vehicles, ground control equipment and payloads – is expected to be worth $13.6 billion through 2014. “Although the popularity of UAVs continues to grow world-wide, the United States is by far the largest single market,” said Dickerson. “American firms have a value share of more than 50 per cent of this market and could gain control of a further 5-10 per cent over the next decade,” he added.

The dominance of these American companies can be attributed in part to the large US requirement and the high cost of certain systems it is currently acquiring such as the RQ-4 Global Hawk UAV. “The value of Global Hawk production over the next 10 years could reach $3.5 billion,” Dickerson said. Northrop Grumman believes that sales of the Global Hawk air vehicles could exceed 200 units.

Demand for UAVs also has been growing in Europe. Both France and the United Kingdom are working to expand their UAV fleets. “A shortage of funding is a big problem for European UAV programs,” Dickerson said. Both Sweden and Italy could pull their funding from the Neuron UAV program due to issues that have nothing to do with the merits of the Neuron proposal.

More than 9,000 UAVs are expected to be purchased over the next ten years by countries in every region of the world. Forecast International does not include funding for RDT&E and operations and maintenance in its analysis, but as procurement increases, money spent in these areas is also likely to increase.

“Thanks to their battlefield successes in Iraq and Afghanistan, money is being lavished on UAV programs as never before,” said Dickerson. “Still, UAVs receive only a fraction of the amounts spent on fighter aircraft and tactical missiles,” he said. “Even if current enthusiasm for UAVs in the U.S. and elsewhere should dissipate, overall funding and interest will remain higher than it was before September 11, 2001.”

Forecast International has also recently published a study on the Military Transport Market (The World Market for Military Transport Aircraft – 2005-2014) The study concludes that Global demand for new military transports is projected at 929 aircraft worth nearly $54 billion during the next ten years.

Although the Boeing C-17 and Lockheed Martin C-130J will maintain their hold on the market through this decade, some major changes are in the offing.

Boeing will deliver the last of 180 C-17 heavy-lifters by mid-2008 and, although it appears likely that an additional 40 units will be procured, the line is expected to close by the end of 2010. Boeing hopes to instead build KC-767 tankers for the USAF by decade’s end.

“Boeing’s market exit will leave Lockheed Martin to battle for sales against the larger new A400M from Airbus Military, and the smaller transport models offered by EADS CASA and Italy’s Alenia,” according to Forecast International aviation analyst Bill Dane. “Lockheed Martin had a brief scare in early 2005 when the Pentagon sought to cut short the manufacturer’s multiyear C-130J contract in a budget-trimming measure, but that plan was shot down.” The line continues to roll, providing the manufacturer time to drum up more export sales.

Seven European nations are committed to buying 180 of the four-engined A400Ms, and both Chile and South Africa also plan to acquire the aircraft. Initial deliveries are scheduled for 2009.

In addition, the US Army’s Future Cargo Aircraft (FCA) competition is shaping up as an all-European show, with the Alenia C-27J pitted against the EADS CASA CN-235 and/or C-295. The Army wants about 30 new transports to replace 44 C-23 Sherpas but is also expected to standardise on the FCA finalist to replace some of its other, ageing medium transports. Alenia has been claiming to hold the inside track in the FCA competition, citing its candidate’s enviable short field capabilities. EADS CASA, on the other hand, contends that the C-27J is too large for the Army’s requirements. The Army is expected to select a finalist design around mid-2006. With possible USAF procurements, the total production run could total about 120 aircraft.

Details available from: Forecast International’s analysts. Tel: +1 203 426 0800, e-mail: monty.nebinger@forecast1.com