Expendable launch vehicle industry ready for comsat rebound

Citation

(2007), "Expendable launch vehicle industry ready for comsat rebound", Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, Vol. 79 No. 1. https://doi.org/10.1108/aeat.2007.12779aaf.005

Expendable launch vehicle industry ready for comsat rebound

Expendable launch vehicle industry ready for comsat rebound

According to a recently released Forecast International study, “The World Market for Expendable Launch Vehicles: 2006-2015,” about 682 ELVs of various types will roll off the production lines during the next ten years to meet future global requirements. The value of the ELV market between 2006 and 2015 is expected to total approximately $46 billion. Forecast International's analysis of world-wide satellite programs indicates that the production of commercial, civil, military, and science satellites through 2015 will total over 800 units. All of these spacecraft will require the services of ELVs, although not all will launch individually as some will be part of multiple-spacecraft launches.

“Taken together, European, Russian, Ukrainian, and US launchers will account for some 78 per cent of the total ELV market through 2015,” said John Edwards, Forecast International's Space Systems Analyst and author of the study. The remaining 22 per cent will be split fairly evenly among China Great Wall Industry, Hindustan Aeronautics, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and their respective systems – Long March, PSLV and GSLV, and H-2A – are earmarked primarily for domestic payloads.

The interconnectivity that exists between the launch vehicle and satellite industries means that neither market can flourish without the other, as the launch vehicle industry requires a steady stream of payloads, and both satellite manufacturers and operators require consistent access to these vehicles. For this reason, it is becoming more critical for both industries to analyse the overall business health of the other.

Despite the over capacity of the commercial satellite market and the decreasing number of commercial launches being conducted, satellite operators are having trouble finding rides to space due to the fact that manufacturers of ELVs have sized their industry to match commercial demand. Therefore, although fewer commercial missions are being performed than in years past, there will be continued competition through at least 2006 for the launch vehicles being produced.

Said Edwards, “At this time, the balance between supply and demand will become much more stable. In the meantime, commercial customers will find that it pays to book in advance.” Some have already done so, to the extent of purchasing a ride to space before the satellite has even been ordered. “In terms of launch service pricing, it looks as if the downward trend that began late in the last century has indeed come to an end, as prices have firmed up and are likely to continue their upward spiral in 2006,” Edwards remarked.

The depressed commercial communications satellite market has obviously limited the number of potential launch opportunities available to providers. However, a rebound is expected and demand will soon exceed capacity. This should lead to a nice replacement market and help to push total commercial satellite orders to about 17 in 2006. This level of production should remain steady for several years and will serve to bolster launch vehicle manufacturers and launch service providers world-wide.

Details available from: Forecast International, Inc., Tel: +1 203 426 0800, E-mail: ray.peterson@forecast1.com