Space accident risk now more accurately analysed

Citation

(2009), "Space accident risk now more accurately analysed", Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, Vol. 81 No. 5. https://doi.org/10.1108/aeat.2009.12781eaf.007

Space accident risk now more accurately analysed

Article Type: Mini features From: Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology: An International Journal, Volume 81, Issue 5

In 2006, pioneers in the world of complex risk analysis, Sciemus, collaborated with defence experts, QinetiQ, to develop a mathematical model which would analyse just how risky space missions are.

It took two years and 40 scientists to complete the model which became known as SpaceRAT, a tool which reduced satellite risk analysis time from months to minutes, and has since saved some satellite operators an estimated 30 per cent in insurance costs.

Three years on, Sciemus' SpaceRAT model has been used to underwrite over 130 satellites and assists operators with risk analysis data when seeking financial backing. Sciemus Co-founder and Chief Technology Officer, Neil Fleming, explains more.

“Satellite reliability varies widely, depending on the quality of parts used, the manufacture and testing processes and the operational processes. Understanding satellite risk is important for any party with an interest in satellite capability. Whether spacecraft operator, investor or buyer, you need to know whether your satellite system will fulfil its requirements.”

“Before SpaceRAT reliable operators were effectively subsidising their competitors because it was so difficult to differentiate between high and low risk within the space sector. Our space model allows our insurance partner, Liberty Syndicates, to price according to the actual risk of failure, meaning significant cost savings for technically superior operators.”

SpaceRAT provides a detailed understanding of the probability of satellite failure and the impact of such failures both during launch and through life. This is achieved through the combination of highly sophisticated analytical models with three decades of comprehensive data from previously flown space missions and current information drawn from the SpaceRAT database or input directly by the user.

SpaceRAT uses the available information to assess the risk to any spacecraft. It highlights areas that may carry specific concerns given the history of that spacecraft, or its individual components. The model received glowing praise following a PwC assessment.

“Back testing results show all of the past 11 years of market experience fall within a 95 per cent confidence interval based on results provided by SpaceRAT for failures in the market […] SpaceRAT provides valuable estimates of satellite failure risks – a significant risk for securitisation structures of in-orbit satellite cash flows.”

The first space operator to take advantage of the benefits offered by SpaceRAT was Inmarsat for their I-4 satellites. Rick Medlock, Inmarsat's Chief Financial Officer said.

“We are pleased to have been approached by Sciemus, whose understanding of satellites has enabled them to deliver an insurance package for the I-4 s which recognises in a truly tangible way our 26-year record of excellence as a communications satellite network operator.”