Forecasts and warnings

Citation

(2007), "Forecasts and warnings", Disaster Prevention and Management, Vol. 16 No. 2. https://doi.org/10.1108/dpm.2007.07316bag.006

Forecasts and warnings

Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts

National Research Council. ISBN 0-309-66261-3. 2006. 124 pp. Free online.National Academies Press: www.nap.edu/catalog/11699.htmlThe National Weather Service (NWS) and others involved in weather, climate, and hydrological prediction and forecasting recognize that uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of such forecasts and, as such, must be included in any forecast that is issued. This study was requested by the NWS to help improve the generation, communication, and potential use of uncertainty information in hydrometeorological forecasts. It provides a template for a process through which the producers and users of forecasts can interact to generate forecasting products that include information about uncertainty and that convey that uncertainty in a way that fosters effective decision making. Among other items, the committee recommends a broad initiative for educating both producers

(Abstracted from the Natural Hazards Observer, Volume XXXI Number 3 January 2007).