Disasters may lead to civil war

Citation

(2009), "Disasters may lead to civil war", Disaster Prevention and Management, Vol. 18 No. 2. https://doi.org/10.1108/dpm.2009.07318bab.007

Disasters may lead to civil war

Article Type: News items From: Disaster Prevention and Management, Volume 18, Issue 2

Natural disasters occurring in low- and middle-income countries significantly increased the risk of violent civil conflict between 1950 and 2000, according to researchers at the University of Otago in New Zealand. Political scientists Philip Nel and Marjolein Righarts looked at 187 political units covering most of the years after the Second World War. They found that a political unit that experiences one natural disaster is “30 percent more likely to experience violent civil conflict compared to a unit that experiences no natural disaster.”

In his 2008 book Apocalypse: Earthquakes, Archaeology and the Wrath of God (Observer, September 2008), Amos Nur argues that several ancient civilizations may have had their demise hastened by natural disasters rather than invaders. He cites likely quakes at Mycenae, Troy, Jericho, Teotihuacàn and others as possible triggers for decline.

Nel and Righarts begin their paper with a 465/464 BCE quake that struck Sparta, becoming the proximate cause of the revolt of Sparta’s Messenian slaves. The Otago researchers found a country that experiences rapid-onset disasters is 50 percent more prone to violent conflict, while more slowly developing hazards present only about an 18 percent risk factor. However, experiencing several climate-related disasters in a year raises the risk of violent conflict substantially. The work appeared in International Studies Quarterly.

(Extracted from Natural Hazards Observer, January 2009.)