Book Reviews. Eurofutures - Five Scenarios for the next millennium

Citation

Maxwell, D.E. (1998), "Book Reviews. Eurofutures - Five Scenarios for the next millennium", European Business Review, Vol. 98 No. 6. https://doi.org/10.1108/ebr.1998.05498fab.011

Book Reviews. Eurofutures - Five Scenarios for the next millennium

Book reviews

Eurofutures ­ Five Scenarios for the next millennium

David SmithCapstone Publishing LtdOxford1997261 pp.£18.99 (hardback)

The future of Europe following the great political gamble of the single currency is the cause of much speculation and it remains to be seen whether it will cement or split the great European dream. In Eurofutures David Smith takes a subject about which there has been too much rhetoric and too little knowledge and turns it into informed debate.

Eurofutures has a clear triptych structure ­ an introductory section and a concluding section frame the bulk of this work which comprises five extended chapters. These set down a vision of developments in Europe which ranges from a rose-coloured image of the Continent as a peaceful and integrated place whose economy is powerful and vibrant to the extremes of regionalism with xenophobia rampant throughout Europe and a looming threat of conflict and nuclear destruction.

The book opens with a chronological listing of the founding of the European Community and its subsequent development. This history is brought to life over the next 40 pages with admirable clarity. The scene having been set, the author's play begins. The first scenario, entitled "The renaissance", presents a Europe of unrestrained economic growth whose currency has replaced the dollar in world dominance. Asia, in the meanwhile, is unstable and turbulent. "Plus‚ a change" presents a stronger Asian economy which is part of a growth of world trade permitting reasonable levels of economic growth in Europe. The scene is one of economic integration with opposition to political union. The heading for the third scenario, "Les Etrangers", would be better translated as "The outsiders" than "The foreigners" for here we find the two-speed Europe in which the exclusivity of the central groups precludes integration of other countries and splits Europe irrevocably. "The dark ages" is indeed a depressing picture of Europe as a living museum hemmed in by high unemployment, an ageing population and protectionism. The single currency becomes an irrelevance as not even a free trade area remains on the splintering Continent. Finally "The Apocalypse" is a revelation of the worst kind in which a false dawn of optimism is gradually replaced by uneven levels of high unemployment, rising nationalism and permanent mass unemployment. Declining and polluted, scarce resources are ploughed into defence in fear of predatory neighbours with inexorable consequences.

In a radio broadcast at the beginning of this year, veteran broadcaster Alistair Cook spoke of the recurring inability of experts to predict accurately the outcome of events. He quoted a journalist Paul Samuelson who stated:

that the most important trends and events of 1998 won't have been predicted at all. This was so last year when Asia's economic turmoil surprised everyone... Our best seers are regularly humbled.

David Smith acknowledges such a possibility before presenting his own view of the probability of each of the scenarios he has brought to life, actually coming true. He does not leave us to wallow in the slough of despond, but in the concluding section of his book sets out the point of view of the "players" and his own views on the possible permutations.

It is often said that economics is the "least exact of sciences". David Smith however has turned this to good effect by writing entirely plausible scenarios. Each is thoroughly researched and makes excellent use of a wide range of source material. The book's central section takes on an almost "best-seller style" and one finds oneself leafing pages to find out not what happened next, but what might indeed evolve from current conditions and circumstances. Only in this case there is no hero or heroine nor even a villain of the piece and as for the dénouement? Only time will tell.

Diana E. Maxwell