The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios

Citation

May, G.H. (2003), "The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios", Foresight, Vol. 5 No. 1, pp. 62-62. https://doi.org/10.1108/fs.2003.5.1.62.1

One of the difficulties of futures work is proof of its effectiveness. In most situations in which it has been, or might be, used it is impossible to compare the results of its use with those of not using it. Futurists are in consequence forced to use evidence from unique situations to develop an argument for their activities. The first part of The Sixth Sense attempts to do this by examining the experience of a number of companies whose success or failure, it is argued, depended on their ability to, “map out the future scarcity landscape”, in order to create customer value.

It is no surprise, given the title of the book, that scenario planning is seen as, “an invaluable tool in achieving this”. Unfortunately, the examples used do not indicate whether the use of scenarios was a factor in the different performance of the companies quoted. Despite this initial disappointment The Sixth Sense does then focus on the value of scenario planning in overcoming the shortcomings its authors identify in managerial decision making.

In thinking about the future it is suggested that most managers and organisations fall into routines and habits that are dominated by business‐as‐usual thinking that results in strategic inertia. Individually, managers, like the rest of us, have their own perspectives on the world which bias their thinking in particular directions, frequently in support of current strategies. The tendency to avoid decisions by continuing with existing but failing policies, procrastination and buck passing is only likely to worsen the situation. Organisations too are all too frequently susceptible to “group‐think” and “lock‐in” where the accepted corporate view is reinforced and new and disruptive thinking discouraged. This section of The Sixth Sense is well supported by extensive evidence drawn from research on management. Scenarios are seen as a tool for providing the necessary jolt to encourage the organisational learning that is vital to survival.

One of the problems that the authors point out has become increasingly significant as companies have extended their operations globally are the cultural assumptions they carry with them. The difficulties experienced by EuroDisney and IKEA in the American market are used to illuminate the problem. The development of a scenario culture that starts, “by asking not what are we looking at, but where we are looking from”, is recommended. Although it is claimed that scenario thinking is the most effective way to explore cultural diversity, Slaughter (2002) has pointed to a number of shortcomings as it is usually practised. One way of overcoming some of these is to incorporate Inayatullah’s (2002) causal layered analysis into the scenario process as a means to analyse “where we are looking from” and to introduce alternative perspectives.

The Sixth Sense is clearly aimed at organisations and the establishment of a scenario based culture, which it is claimed will improve anticipation and organisational learning that is vital to survival in a rapidly changing world. A brief history of the emergence of the scenario technique provides an indication of its development in the military and business, concludes with a summary of the benefits to be gained, such as enhanced perception and thinking, dealing with complexity, and a tool for communication and management.

Probably the most useful section of the book for anyone wanting to undertake a scenario exercise is Chapter 7, which provides a guide to the process as practised by the authors. This is focussed around a case study of a local authority involved in developing its e‐government strategy. As outlined, this is an extensive process involving several stages that for major projects extend over at least ten weeks. Although the kind of short exercises recommended by Mercer (1995) are not dismissed this longer time period, it is argued, allows for greater depth and critical reflection between the intensive workshop sessions that are interspersed at intervals throughout the process. It also, no doubt, supports the case for involving external consultants as facilitators of the process!

The final chapter shows how scenarios can be incorporated into an organisation’s decision‐making processes in order to achieve particular purposes. They can assist, it is argued, in:

• •

  making sense of a puzzling situation;

• •

  developing strategy;

• •

  improving anticipation to avoid being caught off guard; and

• •

  creating an adaptive learning organisation that is less prone to becoming stuck in business‐as‐usual recipes and can adapt quickly and become more agile.

In short, developing, “a capacity to manage the unknown challenges of the future”.

The Sixth Sense is aimed at a management audience and will be most useful to managers who are unfamiliar with the scenario process but who may be considering its inclusion in their activities. It does provide both an outline of one approach to the scenario process and a rationale for the use of scenarios in organisations. It should also be a useful resource for management students and academics introducing scenarios into their courses, but futurists and experienced scenario practitioners may feel it does not add a great deal to their understanding of the technique or go far enough in developing a theoretical underpinning for it.