Research in Finance: Volume 23

Since its first appearance in 1979, Research in Finance has continued to publish novel, theoretical, and empirical research papers that represent significant contributions to important areas in finance, and economics.

We evaluate the performance of fixed income mutual funds using stochastic discount factors motivated by continuous-time term structure models. Time-aggregation of these models for discrete returns generates new empirical “factors,” and these factors contribute significant explanatory power to the models. We provide a conditional performance evaluation for US fixed income mutual funds, conditioning on a variety of discrete ex-ante characterizations of the states of the economy. During 1985–1999 we find that fixed income funds return less on average than passive benchmarks that do not pay expenses, but not in all economic states. Fixed income funds typically do poorly when short-term interest rates or industrial capacity utilization rates are high, and offer higher returns when quality-related credit spreads are high. We find more heterogeneity across fund styles than across characteristics-based fund groups. Mortgage funds underperform a GNMA index in all economic states. These excess returns are reduced, and typically become insignificant, when we adjust for risk using the models.

We utilize cross-sectional regression analysis to identify key variables affecting the initial three-year holding period returns of foreign equities traded as American Depository Receipts (ADRs) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Our results suggest that U.S. market index movements and foreign exchange rates are the main determinants of the initial three-year holding period returns for 285 ADRs listed from January 1990 through December 2002. The determinants vary once the sample is broken into subsets comparing ADRs issued before 1998 to those issued afterwards, ADRs issued as IPOs versus SEOs, and Asia Pacific ADRs versus European and Latin American ADRs. We also find that U.S. interest rate movements and type of ADR issue (IPO versus SEO) provide little explanatory power for ADR returns overall.

This paper applies the variable forgetting factor and the fixed forgetting factor to financial time-series analysis, and establishes the linkage for the first time between the variable forgetting factor approach and kernel smoothing. We then demonstrate the use of the proposed variable forgetting factor approach to undertake forecasting of the Euro's exchange rates and the CRSP monthly net asset values (NAV). For both applications, the findings show that the kernel bandwidth so determined can improve the forecasting performance.

Stock markets during the day are relatively centralized, while night markets, due to the dominance of electronic trading venues, are fragmented. Though electronic markets at night allow more competition for order flow, they may result in decreased order interaction and decreased transparency. Using transaction data for three exchange traded funds (ETFs), we find that bid–ask spreads are wider at night due to higher order processing costs, market maker rents, and inventory holding costs. Results show that night markets are informationally fragmented and are not able to impound information available in net order flow to the same degree as day markets.

Recent research has examined the effect of the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999, more commonly known as the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act (GLB), on the market value of U.S. commercial banks, life insurers, property-liability insurers, thrifts, finance companies, and securities firms. This study fills a gap in our understanding of the Act by measuring the price and trading volume effects of the GLB on U.S.-listed foreign banks. A primary contribution of this study is to examine the role, if any, of two corporate governance perspectives, the stakeholder (code law), and shareholder (common law) models, in a cross-sectional analysis of foreign bank market reaction to the GLB.

Using a generalized least squares (GLS) portfolio approach, Corrado's rank statistic, and confirmed by the traditional market model approach, we find significant negative share price reactions to certain legislative announcements surrounding the passage of the GLB. Trading volume reactions corroborate the significant share price responses. In general, our results indicate that investors in foreign banks reacted negatively to key legislative action. In a cross-sectional analysis, younger, higher-risk foreign banks with less concentrated ownership and more subordinated debt from countries with higher quality accounting standards appear to have more positive (or less negative) share price reactions.

This paper provides a fuller characterization of the analytical upper bounds for American options than has been available to date. We establish properties required of analytical upper bounds without any direct reliance on the exercise boundary. A class of generalized European claims on the same underlying asset is then proposed as upper bounds. This set contains the existing closed form bounds of Margrabe, (1978) and Chen and Yeh (2002) as special cases and allows randomization of the maturity payoff. Owing to the European nature of the bounds, across-strike arbitrage conditions on option prices seem to carry over to the bounds. Among other things, European option spreads may be viewed as ratio positions on the early exercise option. To tighten the upper bound, we propose a quasi-bound that holds as an upper bound for most situations of interest and seems to offer considerable improvement over the currently available closed form bounds. As an approximation, the discounted value of Chen and Yeh's (2002) bound holds some promise. We also discuss implications for parametric and nonparametric empirical option pricing. Sample option quotes for the European (XEO) and the American (OEX) options on the S&P 100 Index appear well behaved with respect to the upper bound properties but the bid–ask spreads are too wide to permit a synthetic short position in the early exercise option.

We set out, in this paper, to extend the Das and Sundaram (2000) model as a means of simultaneously considering correlated default risk structure and counter-party risk. The multinomial model established by Kamrad and Ritchken (1991) is subsequently modified in order to facilitate the development of a computational algorithm for valuing two types of active credit derivatives, credit-spread options and default baskets. From our numerical examples, we find that along with the correlated default risk, the existence of counter-party risk results in a substantially lower valuation of credit derivatives. In addition, we find that different settings of the term structure of interest rate volatility also have a significant impact on the value of credit derivatives.

We extend Diamond's (1989, 1991) life-cycle hypothesis to posit that, once they reach the stage of bank borrowing, firms begin with prime loans and evolve toward borrowing more cheaply at LIBOR as they grow larger, less risky and less characterized by asymmetric information. We conduct multinomial logit regressions to explain firms’ membership in one of three groups: prime only, prime and LIBOR, and LIBOR. We also examine spreads over prime and LIBOR and find that loans set up to allow borrowing at prime carry higher spreads than those allowing borrowing at LIBOR. Both sets of tests support the life-cycle hypothesis.

Recent studies on the use of private, non-bank, debt have given conflicting results. Instead of a fixed order of preference between various choices of debt as suggested by previous studies, this study postulates that there is a life cycle of debt choice, and as firms move through the cycle, their preferences change. For stable, mature firms, when given a choice, non-bank private debt would fall in between the two extremes of bank debt and public debt. We provide empirical as well as anecdotal evidence from the trade press to support this view. We jointly model the decision to choose a debt source as well as the amount of debt on data from a current database to focus on the “intentional” change in debt levels, rather than those due to unintentional changes. We find that there are significant interdependencies between the decision to borrow from a particular source, as well as the amount of loan, and that taxes, as well as lender reputation, degree of renegotiability and financial flexibility required by the borrower, are key factors that influence the choice of private debt source.

Systemic banking crises can have devastating effects on the economies of developing or industrialized countries. This paper reviews the factors that weaken banking systems and make them more susceptible to crises. It is the first of two papers examining root causes of banking crises and time-consistent policies for resolving them.