Research in Economic History: Volume 24

Research in Economic History volume 24 includes seven papers, four of which were submitted and evaluated through our regular channels. An additional three were solicited from among those presented at the conference Toward a Global History of Prices and Wages, held in Utrecht in August 2004. Owing to the emphasis in these papers on data and the relevance of their findings for our understanding of long-run economic growth and development in different parts of the world, we encouraged a number of authors from this conference to submit their work. Three of these contributions have already been published in REH 23, and an additional three are included here. Associate editor Greg Clark took responsibility for soliciting, refereeing, selecting, and editing the submissions.

This study consists of an examination of productivity growth following three major technological breakthroughs: the steam power revolution, electrification and the ICT revolution. The distinction between sectors producing and sectors using the new technology is emphasized. A major finding for all breakthroughs is that there is a long lag from the time of the original invention until a substantial increase in the rate of productivity growth can be observed. There is also strong evidence of rapid price decreases for steam engines, electricity, electric motors and ICT products. However, there is no persuasive direct evidence that the steam engine producing industry and electric machinery had particularly high productivity growth rates. For the ICT revolution the highest productivity growth rates are found in the ICT-producing industries. We suggest that one explanation could be that hedonic price indexes are not used for the steam engine and the electric motor. Still, it is likely that the rate of technological development has been much more rapid during the ICT revolution compared to any of the previous breakthroughs.

Regional rates of return in the United States differed widely following the Civil War and some differences persisted until well after World War II. Our understanding of the evolution of short-term interest rates is based primarily on portfolio rates of return estimated from bank accounting data. This paper uses new national bank loan rate series for 1887–1975 to present a revised view of the evolution of regional short-term interest rates. Two findings are of particular interest. The organization of the Federal Reserve System was accompanied by significant convergence in regional bank loan rates. Rates in the postbellum South were lower than previously thought.

This study utilizes a different approach to examine the effect of transportation on the average height of people in the postbellum period, simply by modeling the change in the marketable surplus of protein. The results show that railroad development had a positive effect on average height from 1867 to 1887, and after this period, its effect was negligible. This study suggests that the factors with negative effects – such as urbanization, industrialization, and infectious diseases – dominated the positive effects of railroad development leading actual average height to decrease from 1867 to 1887.

From 1850 to 1913, the Portuguese economy expanded slowly and diverged from the European core. In contrast, during the interwar period, Portugal achieved higher growth and partially caught up to the levels of labor productivity of Western Europe. Higher growth in Portugal after World War I occurred in a framework of protection and increasing levels of state intervention. Growth was due to structural changes that favored sectors with higher levels of factor productivity. Such changes were associated with growth in domestic demand and higher levels of investment, and were helped by sustained export levels, the continuation of essential imports, and the restoration of capital inflows.

This paper provides standardized estimates of labor productivity in arable farming in selected regions of the early Ottoman Empire, including Jerusalem and neighboring districts in eastern Mediterranean; Bursa and Malatya in Anatolia; and Thessaly, Herzegovina, and Budapest in eastern Europe. I use data from the tax registers of the Ottoman Empire to estimate grain output per worker, standardized (in bushels of wheat equivalent) to allow productivity comparisons within these regions and with other times and places. The results suggest that Ottoman agriculture in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries had achieved levels of labor productivity that compared favorably even with most European countries ca. 1850.

This paper compares grain prices between Cairo and Europe during medieval times. Prices were higher and more volatile in Cairo than in Europe. Over time, price levels declined in large parts of Europe but not in Cairo.

No price integration can be seen between the European Mediterranean region and Cairo. In north-western Europe, a cluster of urban centers showing similar price movements had emerged in the fourteenth century, at the latest. The Mediterranean area was not integrated into this network. Price integration in north-western Europe may have contributed to the economic advancement of this region in late medieval and early modern times.

Climatic fluctuations (in temperature as well as in the water level of the Nile) affected Cairo grain prices. In Europe, on the other hand, short-term temperature variation did not have an appreciable impact on prices. Western European price integration cannot, it seems, be explained by the existence of a common climatic factor. Early European economic development was facilitated by a robust environment.

Since 1997, a quantitative revolution has swept Korean economic history and generated a new paradigm. From 1700 to 1900 the Korean economy expanded and contracted along lines suggested by Adam Smith. Economic expansion was based on productive land and a stable commodity market. The direct result was high real skilled wages. Economic contraction became clear from the mid-nineteenth century when the value of land declined, commodity prices rose, and real skilled wages fell. The contraction was apparent before the appearance of Japanese imperialism and the absorption of Korea into the international commodity market after 1876.