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Journal cover: foresight


ISSN: 1463-6689

Online from: 1999

Subject Area: Strategy

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The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

Document Information:
Title:The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques
Author(s):Peter Bishop, (Associate Professor at the University of Houston, Houston, Texas, USA.), Andy Hines, (Senior Director of Consulting at Social Technologies, Washington, DC, USA.), Terry Collins, (Research Assistant at the University of Houston, Houston, Texas, USA.)
Citation:Peter Bishop, Andy Hines, Terry Collins, (2007) "The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques", foresight, Vol. 9 Iss: 1, pp.5 - 25
Keywords:Futures markets, Management techniques, Research methods
Article type:Literature review
DOI:10.1108/14636680710727516 (Permanent URL)
Publisher:Emerald Group Publishing Limited

PurposeThe paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses.

Design/methodology/approachThe study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes.

FindingsThe paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each.

Practical implicationsFuturists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques.

Originality/valueScenario development is the stock-in-trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.

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