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Journal cover: International Journal of Logistics Management, The

International Journal of Logistics Management, The

ISSN: 0957-4093

Online from: 1990

Subject Area: Operations and Logistics Management

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Forecasting in airforce supply chains

Document Information:
Title:Forecasting in airforce supply chains
Author(s):Matthew Downing, (Boeing Defence UK Limited, Gosport, UK), Maxwell Chipulu, (School of Management, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK), Udechukwu Ojiako, (School of Management, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK), Dinos Kaparis, (The Management School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK)
Citation:Matthew Downing, Maxwell Chipulu, Udechukwu Ojiako, Dinos Kaparis, (2011) "Forecasting in airforce supply chains", International Journal of Logistics Management, The, Vol. 22 Iss: 1, pp.127 - 144
Keywords:Forecasting, Helicopters, Inventory, Maintenance programmes, Supply chain management, United Kingdom
Article type:Case study
DOI:10.1108/09574091111127589 (Permanent URL)
Publisher:Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Purpose – The UK Chinook helicopter is a utility and attack helicopter being operated by the Royal Air Force (RAF). Its versatile nature is of enormous importance to the strategic capability of the RAF's operations. The purpose of this paper is to utilise systems-based forecasting to conduct an evaluation of inventory and forecasting systems being used to support its maintenance programme.

Design/methodology/approach – A case study is conducted. Data are collected from existing monthly Component Repair (CRP) data and performance evaluation of software. For propriety reasons, all data have been sanitised.

Findings – Analysis of the current inventory and forecasting system suggests a possible lack of forecasting precision. Current non-specific formulation of forecasting techniques implied several of the cost driver's demands were being miscalculated. This lack of precision is possibly a result of the smoothing value of 0.01 being too low, especially as the results of statistical modelling suggest that current parameter values of 0.01 might be too low.

Originality/value – The paper reports on work conducted jointly between Boeing and the University of Southampton that sought to create an intermittent demand forecasting model.

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