Online from: 1974
Subject Area: Economics
|Title:||Great recession versus great depression: monetary, fiscal and banking policies|
|Author(s):||Cinzia Alcidi, (Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels, Belgium), Daniel Gros, (Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels, Belgium)|
|Citation:||Cinzia Alcidi, Daniel Gros, (2011) "Great recession versus great depression: monetary, fiscal and banking policies", Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 38 Iss: 6, pp.673 - 690|
|Keywords:||Commercial banks, Fiscal policy, Great depression, Great recession, Monetary policy, Recession|
|DOI:||10.1108/01443581111177385 (Permanent URL)|
|Publisher:||Emerald Group Publishing Limited|
|Acknowledgements:||JEL Classification – E6; B22; G21. The authors would like to thank Paul De Grauwe and Andrea Fracasso for valuable comments and an anonymous referee for insightful remarks and suggestions. It goes without saying that all mistakes are the authors'.|
Purpose – This paper sets out to explore three areas in which the experience of the great depression might be relevant today: monetary policy, fiscal policy, and the systemic stability of banks.
Design/methodology/approach – A critical review of the US data for the 1920s and 1930s is presented and stylised facts for monetary, fiscal and banking policies during the noughties are shown and compared with those of the great depression.
Findings – The authors confirm the consensus on monetary policy: deflation and massive bank failures must be avoided. With regard to fiscal policy it is impossible to confirm a widespread opinion according to which fiscal policy did not work because it was not tried. The paper finds that fiscal policy went to the limit of what was possible under the conditions as they existed then. Policy reaction after 1932 was no less bold than that of today if one accounts for sustainability issues. Lastly, the investigation of the US banking system shows a surprising resilience of commercial banks that remained profitable, at least on average, even during the worst years.
Originality/value – First, the paper presents a systematic comparison between the great depression and the great recession, highlighting similarities and differences. Second, it suggests a relevant policy implication. Findings on commercial bank sector resilience suggest that at present national authorities have little choice but to make up for the losses on “legacy” assets and wait for banks to earn back their capital. However, to prevent future crises, at least a partial separation of commercial and investment banking seems justified.
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