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Journal cover: Journal of Property Investment & Finance

Journal of Property Investment & Finance

ISSN: 1463-578X
Previously published as: Journal of Property Valuation and Investment

Online from: 1999

Subject Area: Built Environment

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Identifying short-term leading indicators for real estate rental performance

Document Information:
Title:Identifying short-term leading indicators for real estate rental performance
Author(s):George Matysiak, (CB Hillier Parker, London, UK,), Sotiris Tsolacos, (Jones Lang LaSalle, London, UK)
Citation:George Matysiak, Sotiris Tsolacos, (2003) "Identifying short-term leading indicators for real estate rental performance", Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Vol. 21 Iss: 3, pp.212 - 232
Keywords:Performance, Real estate, Rental
Article type:Research paper
DOI:10.1108/14635780310481658 (Permanent URL)
Publisher:MCB UP Ltd
Abstract:This paper looks at the application of economic and financial series in forecasting IPD monthly rental series. The approach follows that employed in classical business cycle work that seeks to decompose series into trend, cyclical and noise components and is the first time that it has been applied to IPD monthly data. Trend extraction is obtained by means of the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Several potential indicator series are investigated together with their lead characteristics. The short-term forecasts of these series are compared with naïve methods and a composite indicator. The results show the naïve methods, especially the Holt-Winters method, and certain leading indicator series produce satisfactory short-term forecasts, but the success is both sector and time-dependent. This suggests that it is a worthwhile endeavour in identifying potential leading indicator series. The methodology presented in this paper should be seen as complementing existing approaches that employ standard econometric procedures in modelling rental growth.

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