Online from: 2011
Subject Area: Information and Knowledge Management
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|Title:||Grey prediction model-based food security early warning prediction|
|Author(s):||Yuhong Wang, (School of Business, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, China), Jiangrong Tang, (School of Business, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, China), Wenbin Cao, (School of Business, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, China)|
|Citation:||Yuhong Wang, Jiangrong Tang, Wenbin Cao, (2012) "Grey prediction model-based food security early warning prediction", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 2 Iss: 1, pp.13 - 23|
|Keywords:||Early warning, Food safety, Food security, Grey prediction model, Grey systems, Public health, Quality index|
|Article type:||Research paper|
|DOI:||10.1108/20439371211197631 (Permanent URL)|
|Publisher:||Emerald Group Publishing Limited|
|Acknowledgements:||This paper is partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71071077); the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (JUSRP21146); the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (JUSRP31107); Social Science Research Project for Universities of Jiangsu Province (2011SJD630009); National Project for Education Science Planning (EFA110351); Project of Food Security Research Base in Jiangsu Province; Young Project of Humanities and Social Science in Jiangnan University; and the Project of Jiangsu Province application research (11SB-004).|
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to make an evaluation and early warning prediction using grey prediction models and the index of process ability.
Design/methodology/approach – An early warning prediction for food security risk is proposed in this paper. A quality index is constructed and an improved grey prediction model is also presented. The quality index model is applied to measure the level of food quality; then the grey prediction model is applied to predict the trend of quality index for food in the future. A comparison between the predicted trends and standard limit proposed by experts is made to judge the food security risk.
Findings – The results in this paper indicate that more attention should be paid to the food security situation and steps should also should be taken to prevent harm to people's health from food.
Practical implications – The method presented in the paper could be used to make predictions for those systems which have the characteristic of small sample and poor information. The combination of grey prediction model and process ability index could also be applied to evaluation and early warning for those systems.
Originality/value – Food quality index is constructed for evaluating food security and an improved grey prediction model is also presented in this paper. The combination of these two models could be applied to make evaluation and warning prediction for food security risk with poor information.
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