Journal of Economic StudiesTable of Contents for Journal of Economic Studies. List of articles from the current issue, including Just Accepted (EarlyCite)https://www.emerald.com/insight/publication/issn/0144-3585/vol/51/iss/9?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestJournal of Economic StudiesEmerald Publishing LimitedJournal of Economic StudiesJournal of Economic Studieshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/proxy/containerImg?link=/resource/publication/journal/5baa79c7c5a573c899a61d342aa00484/urn:emeraldgroup.com:asset:id:binary:jes.cover.jpghttps://www.emerald.com/insight/publication/issn/0144-3585/vol/51/iss/9?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestFinancial development, growth and productivityhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2022-0397/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestIn this paper, the heterogeneity of the linkages among financial development, productivity and growth across income groups is emphasized. An empirical analysis is conducted with an illustrative sample of 130 economies over the period 1991–2019 and classified into four subsamples: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), developing, least developed and net food importing developing countries. Forecast error variance decompositions and panel vector auto-regressive estimations are computed, with insightful findings. Higher levels of output stimulate the economic development in the agricultural sector, mainly via the productivity channel and, in the most developed economies, also through access to credit. Differently, in developing and least developed economies, the role of access to credit is marginal. The findings have practical implications for stakeholders involved in the planning of long-run investments. In less developed economies, priorities should be given to investments in technology and innovation, whereas financial markets are more suited to boost the development of the agricultural sector of developed economies. The authors conclude on the credit–output–productivity nexus and contribute to the literature in (at least) three ways. First, they assess how credit access, agricultural output and agricultural productivity are jointly determined. Second, they use a novel approach, which departs from most of the case studies based on single-country data. Third, they conclude on potential causality links to conclude on policy implications.Financial development, growth and productivity
Cosimo Magazzino, Fabio Gaetano Santeramo
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 51, No. 9, pp.1-20

In this paper, the heterogeneity of the linkages among financial development, productivity and growth across income groups is emphasized.

An empirical analysis is conducted with an illustrative sample of 130 economies over the period 1991–2019 and classified into four subsamples: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), developing, least developed and net food importing developing countries. Forecast error variance decompositions and panel vector auto-regressive estimations are computed, with insightful findings.

Higher levels of output stimulate the economic development in the agricultural sector, mainly via the productivity channel and, in the most developed economies, also through access to credit. Differently, in developing and least developed economies, the role of access to credit is marginal. The findings have practical implications for stakeholders involved in the planning of long-run investments. In less developed economies, priorities should be given to investments in technology and innovation, whereas financial markets are more suited to boost the development of the agricultural sector of developed economies.

The authors conclude on the credit–output–productivity nexus and contribute to the literature in (at least) three ways. First, they assess how credit access, agricultural output and agricultural productivity are jointly determined. Second, they use a novel approach, which departs from most of the case studies based on single-country data. Third, they conclude on potential causality links to conclude on policy implications.

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Financial development, growth and productivity10.1108/JES-07-2022-0397Journal of Economic Studies2023-05-09© 2023 Cosimo Magazzino and Fabio Gaetano SanteramoCosimo MagazzinoFabio Gaetano SanteramoJournal of Economic Studies5192023-05-0910.1108/JES-07-2022-0397https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2022-0397/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Cosimo Magazzino and Fabio Gaetano Santeramohttp://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
The salience of informed risk: an experimental analysishttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-09-2022-0483/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestExpanding on the real-world financial market framework and considering the current market turmoil, with cryptocurrencies (where contracts for difference (CFDs) are extremely common) (Hasso et al., 2019) displaying unprecedented volatility, the authors aim to test in an online laboratory setting whether displaying a risk warning message is truly effective in reducing the level of risk taken and whether the placement of this method makes a difference. To explore the impact of risk disclosure framing on risk-taking behavior, the authors conducted an online pair-wise lottery choice experiment. In addition to manipulating risk awareness through the presence or absence of risk warning messages of varying intensity, the authors also considered dynamic inconsistency, cognitive ability and questionnaire-based financial risk tolerance (FRT) scores. The authors aimed to identify potential relationships between these variables and experimentally elicited risk aversion. The authors' study offers valuable insights into the complex nature of risky decision-making and sheds light on the importance of considering dynamic inconsistency in addition to risk awareness and aversion. The authors' results provide statistical evidence for the efficacy of informative and very salient messages in mitigating risky decision, hinting at several policy implications. The authors also provide some statistical evidence in support of the relationship between cognitive abilities and risk preferences. The authors detect that individual with low cognitive abilities scores display great risk aversion. This study investigates the impact of risk warning messages on investment decisions in an online laboratory setting – a unique approach. However, the authors go beyond this and also examine the potential influence of dynamic inconsistency on decision-making, adding further value to the literature on this topic. To ensure a comprehensive understanding of the participants, the authors collect data on cognitive ability and FRT using questionnaires. This study provides a simple and cost-effective framework that can be easily replicated in future research – a valuable contribution to the field.The salience of informed risk: an experimental analysis
Marco Santorsola, Rocco Caferra, Andrea Morone
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 51, No. 9, pp.21-35

Expanding on the real-world financial market framework and considering the current market turmoil, with cryptocurrencies (where contracts for difference (CFDs) are extremely common) (Hasso et al., 2019) displaying unprecedented volatility, the authors aim to test in an online laboratory setting whether displaying a risk warning message is truly effective in reducing the level of risk taken and whether the placement of this method makes a difference.

To explore the impact of risk disclosure framing on risk-taking behavior, the authors conducted an online pair-wise lottery choice experiment. In addition to manipulating risk awareness through the presence or absence of risk warning messages of varying intensity, the authors also considered dynamic inconsistency, cognitive ability and questionnaire-based financial risk tolerance (FRT) scores. The authors aimed to identify potential relationships between these variables and experimentally elicited risk aversion. The authors' study offers valuable insights into the complex nature of risky decision-making and sheds light on the importance of considering dynamic inconsistency in addition to risk awareness and aversion.

The authors' results provide statistical evidence for the efficacy of informative and very salient messages in mitigating risky decision, hinting at several policy implications. The authors also provide some statistical evidence in support of the relationship between cognitive abilities and risk preferences. The authors detect that individual with low cognitive abilities scores display great risk aversion.

This study investigates the impact of risk warning messages on investment decisions in an online laboratory setting – a unique approach. However, the authors go beyond this and also examine the potential influence of dynamic inconsistency on decision-making, adding further value to the literature on this topic. To ensure a comprehensive understanding of the participants, the authors collect data on cognitive ability and FRT using questionnaires. This study provides a simple and cost-effective framework that can be easily replicated in future research – a valuable contribution to the field.

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The salience of informed risk: an experimental analysis10.1108/JES-09-2022-0483Journal of Economic Studies2023-06-09© 2020 Marco Santorsola, Rocco Caferra and Andrea MoroneMarco SantorsolaRocco CaferraAndrea MoroneJournal of Economic Studies5192023-06-0910.1108/JES-09-2022-0483https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-09-2022-0483/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2020 Marco Santorsola, Rocco Caferra and Andrea Moronehttp://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
The role of relatedness in firm interrelationshipshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-12-2022-0631/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis paper analyses how firm births and deaths are influenced by previous firm births and deaths in related and unrelated sectors. Competition and multiplier effects are used as the theoretical lens for this analysis. This paper uses 2008–2016 Irish business demography data pertaining to 568 NACE 4-digit sectors within 20 NACE 1-digit industries across 34 Irish county and sub-county regions within 8 NUTS3 regions. A three-stage least squares (3SLS) estimation is used to analyse the impact of past firm deaths (births) on future firm births (deaths). The effect of relatedness on firm interrelationships is explicitly modelled and captured. Findings indicate that the multiplier effect operates mostly through related sectors, while the competition effect operates mostly through unrelated sectors. This paper's findings show that firm interrelationships are significantly influenced by the degree of relatedness between firms. The raw data used to calculate firm birth and death rates in this analysis are count data. Each new firm is measured the same as another regardless of differing features like size. Some research has shown that smaller firms have a greater propensity to create entrepreneurs (Parker, 2009). Thus, it is possible that the death of differently sized firms may contribute differently to multiplier effects where births induce further births. Future research could seek to examine this. These findings have implications for policy initiatives concerned with increasing entrepreneurship. Some express concerns that public investment into entrepreneurship can lead to “crowding out” effects (Cumming and Johan, 2019), meaning that public investment into entrepreneurship could displace or reduce private investment into entrepreneurship (Audretsch and Fiedler, 2023; Zikou et al., 2017). This study’s findings indicate that using public investment to increase firm births could increase future firm births in related and unrelated sectors. However, more negative “crowding out” effects may also occur in unrelated sectors, meaning that public investment which stimulates firm births in a certain sector could induce firm deaths and crowd out entrepreneurship in unrelated sectors. This paper is the first in the literature to explicitly account for the role of relatedness in firm interrelationships.The role of relatedness in firm interrelationships
Daragh O'Leary, Justin Doran, Bernadette Power
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 51, No. 9, pp.36-58

This paper analyses how firm births and deaths are influenced by previous firm births and deaths in related and unrelated sectors. Competition and multiplier effects are used as the theoretical lens for this analysis.

This paper uses 2008–2016 Irish business demography data pertaining to 568 NACE 4-digit sectors within 20 NACE 1-digit industries across 34 Irish county and sub-county regions within 8 NUTS3 regions. A three-stage least squares (3SLS) estimation is used to analyse the impact of past firm deaths (births) on future firm births (deaths). The effect of relatedness on firm interrelationships is explicitly modelled and captured.

Findings indicate that the multiplier effect operates mostly through related sectors, while the competition effect operates mostly through unrelated sectors.

This paper's findings show that firm interrelationships are significantly influenced by the degree of relatedness between firms. The raw data used to calculate firm birth and death rates in this analysis are count data. Each new firm is measured the same as another regardless of differing features like size. Some research has shown that smaller firms have a greater propensity to create entrepreneurs (Parker, 2009). Thus, it is possible that the death of differently sized firms may contribute differently to multiplier effects where births induce further births. Future research could seek to examine this.

These findings have implications for policy initiatives concerned with increasing entrepreneurship. Some express concerns that public investment into entrepreneurship can lead to “crowding out” effects (Cumming and Johan, 2019), meaning that public investment into entrepreneurship could displace or reduce private investment into entrepreneurship (Audretsch and Fiedler, 2023; Zikou et al., 2017). This study’s findings indicate that using public investment to increase firm births could increase future firm births in related and unrelated sectors. However, more negative “crowding out” effects may also occur in unrelated sectors, meaning that public investment which stimulates firm births in a certain sector could induce firm deaths and crowd out entrepreneurship in unrelated sectors.

This paper is the first in the literature to explicitly account for the role of relatedness in firm interrelationships.

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The role of relatedness in firm interrelationships10.1108/JES-12-2022-0631Journal of Economic Studies2023-08-28© 2023 Daragh O'Leary, Justin Doran and Bernadette PowerDaragh O'LearyJustin DoranBernadette PowerJournal of Economic Studies5192023-08-2810.1108/JES-12-2022-0631https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-12-2022-0631/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Daragh O'Leary, Justin Doran and Bernadette Powerhttp://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
Property tax incentives to divorce strategicallyhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0226/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe paper aims to examine the role played by property tax in influencing strategic decisions regarding marital separation and divorce in Italian municipalities. The empirical analysis is conducted on a sample of 6,458 Italian municipalities by applying the ordinary least squares (OLS) and instrumental variables (IVs) approaches. The estimation results show a small increase in marital separations and divorces as the difference between the municipal secondary and primary home tax rate increases. Specifically, an increase of 1‰ in the property tax rate differentials is accompanied by an increase of six marital separations and four divorces per 1,000 inhabitants. The main limitation of the analysis is that the strategic behavior of the married couple is inferred from econometric analysis with data aggregated at the municipal level. To investigate this phenomenon more precisely, it would be useful to have individual data collected by surveys on strategic divorce decisions due to property tax incentives. This study contributes to the scant existing literature on the tax incentives for strategic divorce. It is the first study to empirically investigate the effects of property tax on separation and divorce decisions by investigating the Italian context. In Italy, a property tax was introduced in 1993, encouraging “false” divorces by spouses with a second home since the tax on the secondary home was set at a rate higher than that on the primary residence. Moreover, there were no tax deductions and no additional tax breaks on the secondary home, while they were established on the primary one. Higher property taxes and the absence of tax breaks on the secondary home may have encouraged a strategic behavior whereby many married couples filed for false separation and divorce in order to recover part of property tax rebates.Property tax incentives to divorce strategically
Raffaella Santolini
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 51, No. 9, pp.59-74

The paper aims to examine the role played by property tax in influencing strategic decisions regarding marital separation and divorce in Italian municipalities.

The empirical analysis is conducted on a sample of 6,458 Italian municipalities by applying the ordinary least squares (OLS) and instrumental variables (IVs) approaches.

The estimation results show a small increase in marital separations and divorces as the difference between the municipal secondary and primary home tax rate increases. Specifically, an increase of 1‰ in the property tax rate differentials is accompanied by an increase of six marital separations and four divorces per 1,000 inhabitants.

The main limitation of the analysis is that the strategic behavior of the married couple is inferred from econometric analysis with data aggregated at the municipal level. To investigate this phenomenon more precisely, it would be useful to have individual data collected by surveys on strategic divorce decisions due to property tax incentives.

This study contributes to the scant existing literature on the tax incentives for strategic divorce. It is the first study to empirically investigate the effects of property tax on separation and divorce decisions by investigating the Italian context. In Italy, a property tax was introduced in 1993, encouraging “false” divorces by spouses with a second home since the tax on the secondary home was set at a rate higher than that on the primary residence. Moreover, there were no tax deductions and no additional tax breaks on the secondary home, while they were established on the primary one. Higher property taxes and the absence of tax breaks on the secondary home may have encouraged a strategic behavior whereby many married couples filed for false separation and divorce in order to recover part of property tax rebates.

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Property tax incentives to divorce strategically10.1108/JES-05-2023-0226Journal of Economic Studies2023-09-11© 2023 Raffaella SantoliniRaffaella SantoliniJournal of Economic Studies5192023-09-1110.1108/JES-05-2023-0226https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0226/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Raffaella Santolinihttp://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
Cross country comparisons of environmental efficiency under institutional quality. Evidence from European economieshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0264/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe paper aims at addressing the following research questions: does institutional quality improve countries' environmental efficiency? And which pillars of institutional quality improve countries' environmental efficiency? By specifying a directional distance function in the context of stochastic frontier method where GHG emissions are considered as the bad output and the GDP is referred as the desirable one, the work computes the environmental efficiency into the appraisal of a production function for the European countries over three decades. According to the countries' performance, the findings confirm that high and upper middle-income countries have higher environmental efficiency compared to low middle-income countries. In this environmental context, the role of institutional quality turns out to be really important in improving the environmental efficiency for high income countries. This article attempts to analyze the role of different dimensions of institutional quality in different European countries' performance – in terms of mitigating GHGs (undesirable output) – while trying to raise their economic performance through their GDP (desirable output). The paper aims at addressing the following research question: does institutional quality improve countries' environmental efficiency?We adopt a directional distance function in the context of stochastic frontier method, considering 40 European economies over a 30-year time interval.The findings confirm that high and upper middle-income countries have higher environmental efficiency compared to low middle-income countries.The role of institutional quality turns out to be really important in improving the environmental efficiency for high income countries, while the performance decreases for the low middle-income countries.Cross country comparisons of environmental efficiency under institutional quality. Evidence from European economies
Cristian Barra, Pasquale Marcello Falcone
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 51, No. 9, pp.75-111

The paper aims at addressing the following research questions: does institutional quality improve countries' environmental efficiency? And which pillars of institutional quality improve countries' environmental efficiency?

By specifying a directional distance function in the context of stochastic frontier method where GHG emissions are considered as the bad output and the GDP is referred as the desirable one, the work computes the environmental efficiency into the appraisal of a production function for the European countries over three decades.

According to the countries' performance, the findings confirm that high and upper middle-income countries have higher environmental efficiency compared to low middle-income countries. In this environmental context, the role of institutional quality turns out to be really important in improving the environmental efficiency for high income countries.

This article attempts to analyze the role of different dimensions of institutional quality in different European countries' performance – in terms of mitigating GHGs (undesirable output) – while trying to raise their economic performance through their GDP (desirable output).

  1. The paper aims at addressing the following research question: does institutional quality improve countries' environmental efficiency?

  2. We adopt a directional distance function in the context of stochastic frontier method, considering 40 European economies over a 30-year time interval.

  3. The findings confirm that high and upper middle-income countries have higher environmental efficiency compared to low middle-income countries.

  4. The role of institutional quality turns out to be really important in improving the environmental efficiency for high income countries, while the performance decreases for the low middle-income countries.

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Cross country comparisons of environmental efficiency under institutional quality. Evidence from European economies10.1108/JES-05-2023-0264Journal of Economic Studies2023-11-07© 2023 Cristian Barra and Pasquale Marcello FalconeCristian BarraPasquale Marcello FalconeJournal of Economic Studies5192023-11-0710.1108/JES-05-2023-0264https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0264/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Cristian Barra and Pasquale Marcello Falconehttp://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
Fiscal adjustments and TFP dynamics: addressing reverse causality within a heterogeneous panel framework with global shockshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0447/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe purpose of this study is to provide new insights into the relationship between fiscal policy and total factor productivity (TFP) while accounting for several economic and econometric issues of the phenomenon like non-stationarity, fiscal feedback effects, persistence in productivity, country heterogeneity and unobserved global shocks and local spillovers affecting heterogeneously the countries in the sample. The paper is empirical. It builds an Error Correction Model (ECM) specification within a dynamic heterogeneous framework with common correlated effects and models both reverse causality and feedback effects. The results of this study highlight some new findings relative to the existing related literature. The outcomes suggest some relevant evidence at both the academic and policy levels: (1) the causal effects going from fiscal deficit/surplus to TFP are heterogeneous across countries; (2) the effects depend on the time horizon considered; (3) the long-run dynamics of TFP are positively impacted by improvements in fiscal budget, but only if the austerity measures do not exert slowdowns in aggregate growth. The main originality of this study is methodological, with possible extensions to related phenomena. Relative to the existing literature, the gains of this study rely on the way econometric techniques, recently proposed in the literature, are adapted to the economic relationship of interest. The endogeneity due to the existence of reverse causality is modelled without implying relevant performance losses of the models. Moreover, this is the first article that questions whether the effects of fiscal budget on productivity depend on the impact of the former on aggregate output growth, thus emphasising the importance of the quality of fiscal adjustments.Fiscal adjustments and TFP dynamics: addressing reverse causality within a heterogeneous panel framework with global shocks
Gianni Carvelli
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 51, No. 9, pp.112-136

The purpose of this study is to provide new insights into the relationship between fiscal policy and total factor productivity (TFP) while accounting for several economic and econometric issues of the phenomenon like non-stationarity, fiscal feedback effects, persistence in productivity, country heterogeneity and unobserved global shocks and local spillovers affecting heterogeneously the countries in the sample.

The paper is empirical. It builds an Error Correction Model (ECM) specification within a dynamic heterogeneous framework with common correlated effects and models both reverse causality and feedback effects.

The results of this study highlight some new findings relative to the existing related literature. The outcomes suggest some relevant evidence at both the academic and policy levels: (1) the causal effects going from fiscal deficit/surplus to TFP are heterogeneous across countries; (2) the effects depend on the time horizon considered; (3) the long-run dynamics of TFP are positively impacted by improvements in fiscal budget, but only if the austerity measures do not exert slowdowns in aggregate growth.

The main originality of this study is methodological, with possible extensions to related phenomena. Relative to the existing literature, the gains of this study rely on the way econometric techniques, recently proposed in the literature, are adapted to the economic relationship of interest. The endogeneity due to the existence of reverse causality is modelled without implying relevant performance losses of the models. Moreover, this is the first article that questions whether the effects of fiscal budget on productivity depend on the impact of the former on aggregate output growth, thus emphasising the importance of the quality of fiscal adjustments.

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Fiscal adjustments and TFP dynamics: addressing reverse causality within a heterogeneous panel framework with global shocks10.1108/JES-08-2023-0447Journal of Economic Studies2023-12-01© 2023 Gianni CarvelliGianni CarvelliJournal of Economic Studies5192023-12-0110.1108/JES-08-2023-0447https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0447/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Gianni Carvellihttp://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
Environmental awareness and firm creationhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2023-0360/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study tests whether environmental awareness affects firm creation by using Google Trends data and a novel region-level data set from Italy. Forward-looking entrepreneurs drive firm creation. The authors hypothesize that more environmentally conscious entrepreneurs will emerge as environmental awareness rises, increasing the number of green and energy firms. The authors test the prediction using Google Trends data and a novel region-level data set from Italy. The authors find that not only the number of green and energy-innovative firms but also that of all innovative start-ups increases with rising environmental consciousness. The results imply some “innovation spillover” effects from green sectors to other industries with rising environmental awareness. The paper hypothesizes that as environmental awareness rises, more environmental-conscious entrepreneurs will emerge, which would increase the number of green and energy firms. Robustness and falsification tests are also offered.Environmental awareness and firm creation
K. Peren Arin, Alessandro De Iudicibus, Nagham Sayour, Nicola Spagnolo
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 51, No. 9, pp.137-147

This study tests whether environmental awareness affects firm creation by using Google Trends data and a novel region-level data set from Italy.

Forward-looking entrepreneurs drive firm creation. The authors hypothesize that more environmentally conscious entrepreneurs will emerge as environmental awareness rises, increasing the number of green and energy firms. The authors test the prediction using Google Trends data and a novel region-level data set from Italy.

The authors find that not only the number of green and energy-innovative firms but also that of all innovative start-ups increases with rising environmental consciousness. The results imply some “innovation spillover” effects from green sectors to other industries with rising environmental awareness.

The paper hypothesizes that as environmental awareness rises, more environmental-conscious entrepreneurs will emerge, which would increase the number of green and energy firms. Robustness and falsification tests are also offered.

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Environmental awareness and firm creation10.1108/JES-07-2023-0360Journal of Economic Studies2024-01-03© 2023 K. Peren Arin, Alessandro De Iudicibus, Nagham Sayour and Nicola SpagnoloK. Peren ArinAlessandro De IudicibusNagham SayourNicola SpagnoloJournal of Economic Studies5192024-01-0310.1108/JES-07-2023-0360https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2023-0360/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 K. Peren Arin, Alessandro De Iudicibus, Nagham Sayour and Nicola Spagnolohttp://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
Time-varying parameters in monetary policy rules: a GMM approachhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-06-2023-0289/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time. This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a time-varying parameter generalised methods of moments (TVP-GMM) framework. Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries with alternative monetary regimes (the US, Japan, Denmark, the Euro Area, Switzerland), we find that monetary policy has become more averse to inflation and more responsive to the output gap in both sets of countries over time. In particular, there has been a clear shift in inflation targeting countries towards a more hawkish stance on inflation since the adoption of this regime and a greater response to both inflation and the output gap in most countries after the global financial crisis, which indicates a stronger reliance on monetary rules to stabilise the economy in recent years. It also appears that inflation targeting countries pay greater attention to the exchange rate pass-through channel when setting interest rates. Finally, monetary surprises do not seem to be an important determinant of the evolution over time of the Taylor rule parameters, which suggests a high degree of monetary policy transparency in the countries under examination. It provides new evidence on changes over time in monetary policy rules.Time-varying parameters in monetary policy rules: a GMM approach
Christina Anderl, Guglielmo Maria Caporale
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 51, No. 9, pp.148-176

The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.

This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a time-varying parameter generalised methods of moments (TVP-GMM) framework.

Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries with alternative monetary regimes (the US, Japan, Denmark, the Euro Area, Switzerland), we find that monetary policy has become more averse to inflation and more responsive to the output gap in both sets of countries over time. In particular, there has been a clear shift in inflation targeting countries towards a more hawkish stance on inflation since the adoption of this regime and a greater response to both inflation and the output gap in most countries after the global financial crisis, which indicates a stronger reliance on monetary rules to stabilise the economy in recent years. It also appears that inflation targeting countries pay greater attention to the exchange rate pass-through channel when setting interest rates. Finally, monetary surprises do not seem to be an important determinant of the evolution over time of the Taylor rule parameters, which suggests a high degree of monetary policy transparency in the countries under examination.

It provides new evidence on changes over time in monetary policy rules.

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Time-varying parameters in monetary policy rules: a GMM approach10.1108/JES-06-2023-0289Journal of Economic Studies2024-01-30© 2024 Christina Anderl and Guglielmo Maria CaporaleChristina AnderlGuglielmo Maria CaporaleJournal of Economic Studies5192024-01-3010.1108/JES-06-2023-0289https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-06-2023-0289/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Christina Anderl and Guglielmo Maria Caporalehttp://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
Strategic flexibility in healthcare: an exploration of real optionshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-10-2023-0605/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis survey explores the application of real options theory to the field of health economics. The integration of options theory offers a valuable framework to address these challenges, providing insights into healthcare investments, policy analysis and patient care pathways. This research employs the real options theory, a financial concept, to delve into health economics challenges. Through a systematic approach, three distinct models rooted in this theory are crafted and analyzed. Firstly, the study examines the value of investing in emerging health technology, factoring in future advantages, associated costs and unpredictability. The second model is patient-centric, evaluating the choice between immediate treatment switch and waiting for more clarity, while also weighing the associated risks. Lastly, the research assesses pandemic-related government policies, emphasizing the importance of delaying decisions in the face of uncertainties, thereby promoting data-driven policymaking. Three different real options models are presented in this study to illustrate their applicability and value in aiding decision-makers. (1) The first evaluates investments in new technology, analyzing future benefits, discount rates and benefit volatility to determine investment value. (2) In the second model, a patient has the option of switching treatments now or waiting for more information before optimally switching treatments. However, waiting has its risks, such as disease progression. By modeling the potential benefits and risks of both options, and factoring in the time value, this model aids doctors and patients in making informed decisions based on a quantified assessment of potential outcomes. (3) The third model concerns pandemic policy: governments can end or prolong lockdowns. While awaiting more data on the virus might lead to economic and societal strain, the model emphasizes the economic value of deferring decisions under uncertainty. This research provides a quantified perspective on various decisions in healthcare, from investments in new technology to treatment choices for patients to government decisions regarding pandemics. By applying real options theory, stakeholders can make more evidence-driven decisions. Decisions about patient care pathways and pandemic policies have direct societal implications. For instance, choices regarding the prolongation or ending of lockdowns can lead to economic and societal strain. The originality of this study lies in its application of real options theory, a concept from finance, to the realm of health economics, offering novel insights and analytical tools for decision-makers in the healthcare sector.Strategic flexibility in healthcare: an exploration of real options
Felipa de Mello-Sampayo
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 51, No. 9, pp.177-199

This survey explores the application of real options theory to the field of health economics. The integration of options theory offers a valuable framework to address these challenges, providing insights into healthcare investments, policy analysis and patient care pathways.

This research employs the real options theory, a financial concept, to delve into health economics challenges. Through a systematic approach, three distinct models rooted in this theory are crafted and analyzed. Firstly, the study examines the value of investing in emerging health technology, factoring in future advantages, associated costs and unpredictability. The second model is patient-centric, evaluating the choice between immediate treatment switch and waiting for more clarity, while also weighing the associated risks. Lastly, the research assesses pandemic-related government policies, emphasizing the importance of delaying decisions in the face of uncertainties, thereby promoting data-driven policymaking.

Three different real options models are presented in this study to illustrate their applicability and value in aiding decision-makers. (1) The first evaluates investments in new technology, analyzing future benefits, discount rates and benefit volatility to determine investment value. (2) In the second model, a patient has the option of switching treatments now or waiting for more information before optimally switching treatments. However, waiting has its risks, such as disease progression. By modeling the potential benefits and risks of both options, and factoring in the time value, this model aids doctors and patients in making informed decisions based on a quantified assessment of potential outcomes. (3) The third model concerns pandemic policy: governments can end or prolong lockdowns. While awaiting more data on the virus might lead to economic and societal strain, the model emphasizes the economic value of deferring decisions under uncertainty.

This research provides a quantified perspective on various decisions in healthcare, from investments in new technology to treatment choices for patients to government decisions regarding pandemics. By applying real options theory, stakeholders can make more evidence-driven decisions.

Decisions about patient care pathways and pandemic policies have direct societal implications. For instance, choices regarding the prolongation or ending of lockdowns can lead to economic and societal strain.

The originality of this study lies in its application of real options theory, a concept from finance, to the realm of health economics, offering novel insights and analytical tools for decision-makers in the healthcare sector.

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Strategic flexibility in healthcare: an exploration of real options10.1108/JES-10-2023-0605Journal of Economic Studies2024-02-13© 2024 Felipa de Mello-SampayoFelipa de Mello-SampayoJournal of Economic Studies5192024-02-1310.1108/JES-10-2023-0605https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-10-2023-0605/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Felipa de Mello-Sampayohttp://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
A three-period extension of the CAPMhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-11-2023-0640/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestOur result of this paper aims to indicate that the beta pricing formula could be applied in a long-term model setting as well. In this paper, we show that the capital asset pricing model can be derived from a three-period general equilibrium model. We show that our extended model yields a Pareto efficient outcome. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) model can be used for pricing long-lived assets. Long-term modelling and sustainability can be modelled in our setting. Our results were only known for two periods. The extension to 3 periods opens up a large scope of applicational possibilities in asset pricing, behavioural analysis and long-term efficiency.A three-period extension of the CAPM
Helga Habis
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 51, No. 9, pp.200-211

Our result of this paper aims to indicate that the beta pricing formula could be applied in a long-term model setting as well.

In this paper, we show that the capital asset pricing model can be derived from a three-period general equilibrium model.

We show that our extended model yields a Pareto efficient outcome.

The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) model can be used for pricing long-lived assets.

Long-term modelling and sustainability can be modelled in our setting.

Our results were only known for two periods. The extension to 3 periods opens up a large scope of applicational possibilities in asset pricing, behavioural analysis and long-term efficiency.

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A three-period extension of the CAPM10.1108/JES-11-2023-0640Journal of Economic Studies2024-02-27© 2024 Helga HabisHelga HabisJournal of Economic Studies5192024-02-2710.1108/JES-11-2023-0640https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-11-2023-0640/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Helga Habishttp://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
Networks, ownership and productivity does firm age play a moderating role?https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-10-2023-0547/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe purpose of this study is to investigate whether and how inter-firm cooperation and firm age moderate the relationship between family ownership and productivity. We first estimate the total factor productivity (TFP) of a large sample of Italian firms observed over the period 2010–2018 and then apply a Poisson random effects model. TFP is, on average, higher for non-family firms (non-FFs) than for FF. Furthermore, inter-organizational cooperation and firm age mitigate the negative effect of family ownership. In detail, it is found that belonging to a network acts as a moderator in different ways according to firm age. Indeed, young FFs underperform non-FF peers, although the TFP gap decreases with age. In contrast, the benefits of a formal network are high for older FFs, suggesting that an age-related learning process is at work. The study provides evidence that FFs can outperform non-FFs when they move away from Socio-Emotional Wealth-centered reference points and exploit knowledge flows arising from high levels of social capital. In the case of mature FFs, networking is a driver of TFP, allowing them to acquire external resources. Since FFs often do not have sufficient in-house knowledge and resources, they must be aware of the value of business cooperation. While preserving the familiar identity of small companies, networks grant FFs the competitive and scale advantages of being large. Despite the wide but ambiguous body of research on the performance gap between FFs and non-FFs, little is known about the role of FFs’ heterogeneity. This study has proven successful in detecting age as a factor in heterogeneity, specifically to explain the network effect on the link between ownership and TFP. Based on a representative sample, the study provides a solid framework for FFs, policymakers and academic research on family-owned companies.Networks, ownership and productivity does firm age play a moderating role?
Francesco Aiello, Paola Cardamone, Lidia Mannarino, Valeria Pupo
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 51, No. 9, pp.212-231

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether and how inter-firm cooperation and firm age moderate the relationship between family ownership and productivity.

We first estimate the total factor productivity (TFP) of a large sample of Italian firms observed over the period 2010–2018 and then apply a Poisson random effects model.

TFP is, on average, higher for non-family firms (non-FFs) than for FF. Furthermore, inter-organizational cooperation and firm age mitigate the negative effect of family ownership. In detail, it is found that belonging to a network acts as a moderator in different ways according to firm age. Indeed, young FFs underperform non-FF peers, although the TFP gap decreases with age. In contrast, the benefits of a formal network are high for older FFs, suggesting that an age-related learning process is at work.

The study provides evidence that FFs can outperform non-FFs when they move away from Socio-Emotional Wealth-centered reference points and exploit knowledge flows arising from high levels of social capital. In the case of mature FFs, networking is a driver of TFP, allowing them to acquire external resources. Since FFs often do not have sufficient in-house knowledge and resources, they must be aware of the value of business cooperation. While preserving the familiar identity of small companies, networks grant FFs the competitive and scale advantages of being large.

Despite the wide but ambiguous body of research on the performance gap between FFs and non-FFs, little is known about the role of FFs’ heterogeneity. This study has proven successful in detecting age as a factor in heterogeneity, specifically to explain the network effect on the link between ownership and TFP. Based on a representative sample, the study provides a solid framework for FFs, policymakers and academic research on family-owned companies.

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Networks, ownership and productivity does firm age play a moderating role?10.1108/JES-10-2023-0547Journal of Economic Studies2024-03-04© 2024 Francesco Aiello, Paola Cardamone, Lidia Mannarino and Valeria PupoFrancesco AielloPaola CardamoneLidia MannarinoValeria PupoJournal of Economic Studies5192024-03-0410.1108/JES-10-2023-0547https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-10-2023-0547/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Francesco Aiello, Paola Cardamone, Lidia Mannarino and Valeria Pupohttp://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
Asymmetric effects of monetary policy on non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) assets: a panel quantile regression approachhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-01-2023-0024/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe purpose of this paper is to fill the momentous gap by explicitly investigating the asymmetric effects of monetary policy (MP) on non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) assets. The authors utilized panel data from 29 countries for the period of 2012–2020 and used the quantile regression estimation. In addition to simultaneous quantile regression (SQR), the authors also employ quantile regression with clustered data (Parente and Silva, 2016) and the generalized quantile regression (GQR) method (Powell, 2020). The empirical results show a significant heterogeneous impact of MP. While there is a positive relationship between MP and NBFI assets (“waterbed effect”) at lower quantiles of NBFI assets, at middle and higher quantiles, MP has a negative impact on NBFI assets (“search for yield” effect). The authors further find that negative impact strengthens as the quantile levels of NBFI assets rise from mid to high. Findings also reveal that “procyclicality” (except higher quantile) and “institutional demand” hypotheses hold. However, regarding “regulatory arbitrage,” mixed results are observed indicating the impact of Basel III requirements. Previous empirical studies have concentrated on either the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework or conditional mean regression approaches and delivered mixed findings of the MP effects on NBFI. The current paper takes a step toward dealing with this issue by deploying quantile regression methodology, which shows the impact of MP on NBFI at different conditional distributions (quantiles) of NBFI assets instead of just NBFI's conditional mean distribution.Asymmetric effects of monetary policy on non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) assets: a panel quantile regression approach
Mugabil Isayev, Farid Irani, Amirreza Attarzadeh
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The purpose of this paper is to fill the momentous gap by explicitly investigating the asymmetric effects of monetary policy (MP) on non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) assets.

The authors utilized panel data from 29 countries for the period of 2012–2020 and used the quantile regression estimation. In addition to simultaneous quantile regression (SQR), the authors also employ quantile regression with clustered data (Parente and Silva, 2016) and the generalized quantile regression (GQR) method (Powell, 2020).

The empirical results show a significant heterogeneous impact of MP. While there is a positive relationship between MP and NBFI assets (“waterbed effect”) at lower quantiles of NBFI assets, at middle and higher quantiles, MP has a negative impact on NBFI assets (“search for yield” effect). The authors further find that negative impact strengthens as the quantile levels of NBFI assets rise from mid to high. Findings also reveal that “procyclicality” (except higher quantile) and “institutional demand” hypotheses hold. However, regarding “regulatory arbitrage,” mixed results are observed indicating the impact of Basel III requirements.

Previous empirical studies have concentrated on either the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework or conditional mean regression approaches and delivered mixed findings of the MP effects on NBFI. The current paper takes a step toward dealing with this issue by deploying quantile regression methodology, which shows the impact of MP on NBFI at different conditional distributions (quantiles) of NBFI assets instead of just NBFI's conditional mean distribution.

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Asymmetric effects of monetary policy on non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) assets: a panel quantile regression approach10.1108/JES-01-2023-0024Journal of Economic Studies2023-08-09© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedMugabil IsayevFarid IraniAmirreza AttarzadehJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-08-0910.1108/JES-01-2023-0024https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-01-2023-0024/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
The non-linear impact of financial development on income inequality: evidence from dynamic panel threshold modelhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-01-2023-0034/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study examines the non-linear impact of financial development on income inequality and analyses the mediators through which financial development affects income inequality. The study uses a dynamic panel threshold method with an endogeneous threshold variable on a comprehensive sample of 85 countries over the period of 1996-2015. The author finds that financial development activities increase income inequality in developed countries. However, financial development promotes income equality in developing countries. Further, the study finds that education and institutional quality are the channels through which financial development has non-linear impacts on income inequality. The study explores relatively new method to examine the nonlinear impact of financial development and also considers new dataset for the main explanatory variable.The non-linear impact of financial development on income inequality: evidence from dynamic panel threshold model
Shobhana Sikhawal
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study examines the non-linear impact of financial development on income inequality and analyses the mediators through which financial development affects income inequality.

The study uses a dynamic panel threshold method with an endogeneous threshold variable on a comprehensive sample of 85 countries over the period of 1996-2015.

The author finds that financial development activities increase income inequality in developed countries. However, financial development promotes income equality in developing countries. Further, the study finds that education and institutional quality are the channels through which financial development has non-linear impacts on income inequality.

The study explores relatively new method to examine the nonlinear impact of financial development and also considers new dataset for the main explanatory variable.

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The non-linear impact of financial development on income inequality: evidence from dynamic panel threshold model10.1108/JES-01-2023-0034Journal of Economic Studies2023-08-22© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedShobhana SikhawalJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-08-2210.1108/JES-01-2023-0034https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-01-2023-0034/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
From pandemic to war: dynamics of volatility spillover between BRICS exchange and stock marketshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-02-2023-0064/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestTo estimate the volatility of exchange and stock markets and examine its spillover within and across the member countries of BRICS during COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The study utilizes the “dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH)” approach of Gabauer (2020). The volatility of the markets is calculated following the approach of Parkinson (1980). The sample dataset comprises the daily volatility of the stock and exchange markets for 35 months, from November 2019 to September 2022. The study confirms the existence of contagion effects among member countries. Volatility spillover between exchange and stock markets is low within the country but substantial across borders. Russian contribution increased significantly during the conflict with Ukraine, and other countries also witnessed a surge in the spillover index during the pandemic and war. It adds to the body of literature by emphasizing the necessity of comprehending the economies' behavior and interdependence. Offers insightful information to decision-makers who must be more watchful regarding the financial crisis and its regional spillover. The study is the first to explore the contagion of volatility among the BRICS countries during the two biggest crisis periods of the decade.From pandemic to war: dynamics of volatility spillover between BRICS exchange and stock markets
Mohit Kumar
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

To estimate the volatility of exchange and stock markets and examine its spillover within and across the member countries of BRICS during COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The study utilizes the “dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH)” approach of Gabauer (2020). The volatility of the markets is calculated following the approach of Parkinson (1980). The sample dataset comprises the daily volatility of the stock and exchange markets for 35 months, from November 2019 to September 2022.

The study confirms the existence of contagion effects among member countries. Volatility spillover between exchange and stock markets is low within the country but substantial across borders. Russian contribution increased significantly during the conflict with Ukraine, and other countries also witnessed a surge in the spillover index during the pandemic and war.

It adds to the body of literature by emphasizing the necessity of comprehending the economies' behavior and interdependence. Offers insightful information to decision-makers who must be more watchful regarding the financial crisis and its regional spillover.

The study is the first to explore the contagion of volatility among the BRICS countries during the two biggest crisis periods of the decade.

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From pandemic to war: dynamics of volatility spillover between BRICS exchange and stock markets10.1108/JES-02-2023-0064Journal of Economic Studies2023-07-12© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedMohit KumarJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-07-1210.1108/JES-02-2023-0064https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-02-2023-0064/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Bank efficiency and competition: bibliometric analysis of concepts and emerging issueshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-02-2023-0067/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study provides a bibliometric analysis of bank efficiency and competition over the past years (from 1993 to 2022) to (1) discover the past and current state of knowledge on bank competition and efficiency, (2) identify leading and authoritative journals and scholars who made significant contributions to the distribution of knowledge and impact, (3) identify nations that made a significant contribution and impact to the literature and (4) identify the structure of collaboration that exists between scholars in the areas of bank competition and efficiency and key thematic areas. A total number of 868 documents made up of articles, reviews, book chapters, book and conference papers from the Scopus database were gathered. This study used a bibliometric analytic approach. The number of documents on bank competitiveness and efficiency has increased significantly, as have their total publications, citations and national output. Additionally, the most esteemed and prestigious academic journals of eminent academics who have had a significant impact on the dissemination of knowledge on bank efficiency and competition literature champion papers on banking efficiency and competition. In terms of citation performance and collaborative efforts, the United States tops the developed countries, led by China, which is also the most productive. Additionally, single-country publications predominate in the literature, with China ranking first among the top five countries with corresponding authors. While the Lerner index, H-statistic, concentration index and market power were used to measure bank competitive behaviour, the data envelopment analysis approach predominates efficiency estimation techniques that are linked to cost, profit or revenue, scale, technical and productivity indexes. This study is one of the first to offer bibliometric evidence of both bank competition and efficiency. It also offers proof of the distribution of knowledge and intellectual structure of the concepts and concerns in bank competition and efficiency.Bank efficiency and competition: bibliometric analysis of concepts and emerging issues
James Ntiamoah Doku, Gladys A.A. Nabieu
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study provides a bibliometric analysis of bank efficiency and competition over the past years (from 1993 to 2022) to (1) discover the past and current state of knowledge on bank competition and efficiency, (2) identify leading and authoritative journals and scholars who made significant contributions to the distribution of knowledge and impact, (3) identify nations that made a significant contribution and impact to the literature and (4) identify the structure of collaboration that exists between scholars in the areas of bank competition and efficiency and key thematic areas.

A total number of 868 documents made up of articles, reviews, book chapters, book and conference papers from the Scopus database were gathered. This study used a bibliometric analytic approach.

The number of documents on bank competitiveness and efficiency has increased significantly, as have their total publications, citations and national output. Additionally, the most esteemed and prestigious academic journals of eminent academics who have had a significant impact on the dissemination of knowledge on bank efficiency and competition literature champion papers on banking efficiency and competition. In terms of citation performance and collaborative efforts, the United States tops the developed countries, led by China, which is also the most productive. Additionally, single-country publications predominate in the literature, with China ranking first among the top five countries with corresponding authors. While the Lerner index, H-statistic, concentration index and market power were used to measure bank competitive behaviour, the data envelopment analysis approach predominates efficiency estimation techniques that are linked to cost, profit or revenue, scale, technical and productivity indexes.

This study is one of the first to offer bibliometric evidence of both bank competition and efficiency. It also offers proof of the distribution of knowledge and intellectual structure of the concepts and concerns in bank competition and efficiency.

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Bank efficiency and competition: bibliometric analysis of concepts and emerging issues10.1108/JES-02-2023-0067Journal of Economic Studies2023-10-09© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedJames Ntiamoah DokuGladys A.A. NabieuJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-10-0910.1108/JES-02-2023-0067https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-02-2023-0067/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
The gender pay gap in the Visegrad Groupshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-02-2023-0072/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe gender pay gap is a well-documented phenomenon in labor economics. Based on the 2018 Structure of Earnings Survey (SES), the authors estimate the impact of observable characteristics on the gender pay gap in Visegrad Group countries and provide policy recommendations on reducing the gender pay gap. The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is applied to estimate the values of explained and unexplained parts of the gender pay gap. Gender pay gap in unadjusted as well as adjusted form is estimated using data on the individual level. The results show that unadjusted gender pay gap proved to be stable at more than 20%. The authors found evidence that education widens gender pay gap implying that men have higher returns on education than women. Tertiary education proved to be the highest contributor to widening of gender pay gap. Results also show that there is strong sectoral and occupational segregation. Decomposition proved that only 21% of gender pay gap could be explained by observed characteristics. The unexplained part showed negative values, meaning women would have higher wages, if they had characteristics like men. Structure of Earnings Survey data are published every four years; therefore the authors’ dataset from year 2018 might not completely reflect today's reality. Unfortunately, newer data are note available yet. Second, Structure of Earning Survey data do not contain variables representing social factors of respondents like marital status, number of children or labour market absence due to birth or childcare. Third, data used for this study do not contain firms that have less than 10 employees; therefore, considerable portion of the labour market is omitted. Results of this study will help policymakers understand the roots and causes of the gender pay gap in Visegrad Group countries but addressing this issue requires further research.The gender pay gap in the Visegrad Groups
Jakub Harman, Lucia Bartůsková
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The gender pay gap is a well-documented phenomenon in labor economics. Based on the 2018 Structure of Earnings Survey (SES), the authors estimate the impact of observable characteristics on the gender pay gap in Visegrad Group countries and provide policy recommendations on reducing the gender pay gap.

The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is applied to estimate the values of explained and unexplained parts of the gender pay gap. Gender pay gap in unadjusted as well as adjusted form is estimated using data on the individual level.

The results show that unadjusted gender pay gap proved to be stable at more than 20%. The authors found evidence that education widens gender pay gap implying that men have higher returns on education than women. Tertiary education proved to be the highest contributor to widening of gender pay gap. Results also show that there is strong sectoral and occupational segregation. Decomposition proved that only 21% of gender pay gap could be explained by observed characteristics. The unexplained part showed negative values, meaning women would have higher wages, if they had characteristics like men.

Structure of Earnings Survey data are published every four years; therefore the authors’ dataset from year 2018 might not completely reflect today's reality. Unfortunately, newer data are note available yet. Second, Structure of Earning Survey data do not contain variables representing social factors of respondents like marital status, number of children or labour market absence due to birth or childcare. Third, data used for this study do not contain firms that have less than 10 employees; therefore, considerable portion of the labour market is omitted.

Results of this study will help policymakers understand the roots and causes of the gender pay gap in Visegrad Group countries but addressing this issue requires further research.

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The gender pay gap in the Visegrad Groups10.1108/JES-02-2023-0072Journal of Economic Studies2023-09-13© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedJakub HarmanLucia BartůskováJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-09-1310.1108/JES-02-2023-0072https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-02-2023-0072/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Forecasting expenditure components in Nigeriahttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-02-2023-0087/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study forecasts the government expenditure components in Nigeria, including recurrent and capital expenditures for 2021 and 2022, based on data from 1981 to 2020. The study employs statistical/econometric problems using the Feasible Quasi Generalized Least Squares approach. Expenditure forecasts involve three simulation scenarios: (1) do nothing where the economy follows its natural path; (2) an optimistic scenario, where the economy grows by specific percentages and (3) a pessimistic scenario that defines specific economic contractions. The estimation model is informed by Wagner's law specifying a positive link between economic activities and public spending. Model estimation affirms the expected positive relationship and is relevant for generating forecasts. The out-of-sample results show that a higher proportion of the total government expenditure (7.6% in 2021 and 15.6% in 2022) is required to achieve a predefined growth target (5%). This study offers empirical evidence that specifically requires Nigeria to invest a ratio of 3 to 1 or more in capital expenditure to recurrent expenditure for the economy to be guided on growth.Forecasting expenditure components in Nigeria
Afees Salisu, Douglason Godwin Omotor
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study forecasts the government expenditure components in Nigeria, including recurrent and capital expenditures for 2021 and 2022, based on data from 1981 to 2020.

The study employs statistical/econometric problems using the Feasible Quasi Generalized Least Squares approach. Expenditure forecasts involve three simulation scenarios: (1) do nothing where the economy follows its natural path; (2) an optimistic scenario, where the economy grows by specific percentages and (3) a pessimistic scenario that defines specific economic contractions.

The estimation model is informed by Wagner's law specifying a positive link between economic activities and public spending. Model estimation affirms the expected positive relationship and is relevant for generating forecasts. The out-of-sample results show that a higher proportion of the total government expenditure (7.6% in 2021 and 15.6% in 2022) is required to achieve a predefined growth target (5%).

This study offers empirical evidence that specifically requires Nigeria to invest a ratio of 3 to 1 or more in capital expenditure to recurrent expenditure for the economy to be guided on growth.

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Forecasting expenditure components in Nigeria10.1108/JES-02-2023-0087Journal of Economic Studies2023-09-06© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedAfees SalisuDouglason Godwin OmotorJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-09-0610.1108/JES-02-2023-0087https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-02-2023-0087/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Does corruption grease or sand the wheels of firm productivity? Evidence of a non-linear relationship from a firm-level analysis in Vietnamhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-02-2023-0092/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis analysis examines the relationship between corruption and firm productivity in Vietnam. The authors apply the system generalized method of moments estimation approach on a panel dataset constructed from comprehensive enterprise surveys covering all the sectors over the 2011–2020 period. The results confirm a non-linear relationship between corruption and firm productivity. Where corruption is severe, leaving corruption alone tends to benefit firm productivity because efforts to control corruption are likely to cause greater delays. In less corrupt provinces, corruption appears to harm firm productivity while efforts to control corruption provide significant productivity gains. This U-shaped relationship is confirmed for small firms and those in the private sector sub-samples. Intriguingly, this study reveals that the U-shaped relationship does not apply to micro, medium, large firms, state-owned firms and foreign-invested firms because corruption is found to have no significant impact on productivity among these sub-samples. Changes in regulations after 2014 toward promoting a transparent business environment are shown to foster the positive impact of lowering corruption on firm productivity. This study suggests that lowering corruption is beneficial for firm productivity at the micro level. However, where corruption is severe, monitoring corruption alone is likely to cause adverse effects on productivity due to increased bureaucratic delays. Institutional reforms might play an important role in leveraging the effects of lowering corruption on productivity in highly corrupt areas. This paper sheds new light on the relationship between corruption and firm productivity in the broad existing literature and especially in the limited number of studies for Vietnam.Does corruption grease or sand the wheels of firm productivity? Evidence of a non-linear relationship from a firm-level analysis in Vietnam
Van Thi Cam Ha, Trinh Nguyen Chau, Tra Thi Thu Pham, Duy Nguyen
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This analysis examines the relationship between corruption and firm productivity in Vietnam.

The authors apply the system generalized method of moments estimation approach on a panel dataset constructed from comprehensive enterprise surveys covering all the sectors over the 2011–2020 period.

The results confirm a non-linear relationship between corruption and firm productivity. Where corruption is severe, leaving corruption alone tends to benefit firm productivity because efforts to control corruption are likely to cause greater delays. In less corrupt provinces, corruption appears to harm firm productivity while efforts to control corruption provide significant productivity gains. This U-shaped relationship is confirmed for small firms and those in the private sector sub-samples. Intriguingly, this study reveals that the U-shaped relationship does not apply to micro, medium, large firms, state-owned firms and foreign-invested firms because corruption is found to have no significant impact on productivity among these sub-samples. Changes in regulations after 2014 toward promoting a transparent business environment are shown to foster the positive impact of lowering corruption on firm productivity.

This study suggests that lowering corruption is beneficial for firm productivity at the micro level. However, where corruption is severe, monitoring corruption alone is likely to cause adverse effects on productivity due to increased bureaucratic delays. Institutional reforms might play an important role in leveraging the effects of lowering corruption on productivity in highly corrupt areas.

This paper sheds new light on the relationship between corruption and firm productivity in the broad existing literature and especially in the limited number of studies for Vietnam.

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Does corruption grease or sand the wheels of firm productivity? Evidence of a non-linear relationship from a firm-level analysis in Vietnam10.1108/JES-02-2023-0092Journal of Economic Studies2023-10-17© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedVan Thi Cam HaTrinh Nguyen ChauTra Thi Thu PhamDuy NguyenJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-10-1710.1108/JES-02-2023-0092https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-02-2023-0092/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Effect of military service on fertility: evidence from the 2001 draft suspension in Spainhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-02-2023-0096/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestMany European countries suspended mandatory conscription after the Cold War, and especially between 2000 and 2010. However, with the changing security situation in Europe, more and more countries are considering the re-introduction of the draft. That is why, it is important to evaluate the impact of conscription on draftees, including its effect on fertility outcomes. Additionally, fertility is of particular interest because birth rates have been below replacement levels in most European countries at least in the last two decades. This, combined with the increase in life expectancy, has contributed to aging population and raises concerns about the future economic prospects and sustainability of the continent. Military service could be related to fertility in several ways. Compulsory service for men would affect the marriage market and subsequently child-bearing outcomes. For example, men who serve in the military would have to delay higher education at least by a year, given that they plan to continue their education after high school. One possibility is that this leads to older men meeting younger women if partners meet at college. Alternatively, in case the partners know each other prior to the draft, service could delay marriage by up to a year due to the conscription, postponing planning and having children, and potentially having fewer children as women might be less able or less willing to have a child after a certain age. Finally, some men who plan and would otherwise continue their education might choose to not do so or to further postpone it once they disattach from studying during their service. For some men, this might influence their marital and subsequent fertility outcomes. In either of these scenarios, a draft or its suspension is likely to be connected to fertility. This study examines the effect of the suspension of the draft in Spain in December 2001 on three fertility outcomes of men that would have been drafted in the absence of the suspension. The author performs the analysis in a difference-in-differences framework. Potential concerns and policy implications are also discussed. The findings suggest that after the suspension of the draft, individuals started to have their first child earlier given that they decide to have children. Consistent with the overall time trend, they became less likely to have a child and started to have fewer children. However, the age at birth of the first child decreased while the number of children and the likelihood of having a child increased for men relative to women, after compared to before the suspension of the mandatory draft. The author extends prior literature by investigating the effect of the abolition of compulsory military service in Spain in December 2001 on fertility. This is novel is several ways. First, to the best of the author’s knowledge, previous literature has examined the effect of this Spanish reform only on labor market outcomes prior to men's conscription. Second, even for other countries that terminated the compulsory draft, fertility has been under-studied, providing an opportunity for further exploration. Third, this analysis is based on rich Census data, representative of the population in Spain. Finally, given the inconclusive findings of previous studies for other countries and the proposed re-introduction of the draft in some parts of Europe, additional evidence of the effect of the conscription has important policy implications necessary for the evaluation of future military service policy decisions.Effect of military service on fertility: evidence from the 2001 draft suspension in Spain
Stefani Milovanska-Farrington
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

Many European countries suspended mandatory conscription after the Cold War, and especially between 2000 and 2010. However, with the changing security situation in Europe, more and more countries are considering the re-introduction of the draft. That is why, it is important to evaluate the impact of conscription on draftees, including its effect on fertility outcomes. Additionally, fertility is of particular interest because birth rates have been below replacement levels in most European countries at least in the last two decades. This, combined with the increase in life expectancy, has contributed to aging population and raises concerns about the future economic prospects and sustainability of the continent. Military service could be related to fertility in several ways. Compulsory service for men would affect the marriage market and subsequently child-bearing outcomes. For example, men who serve in the military would have to delay higher education at least by a year, given that they plan to continue their education after high school. One possibility is that this leads to older men meeting younger women if partners meet at college. Alternatively, in case the partners know each other prior to the draft, service could delay marriage by up to a year due to the conscription, postponing planning and having children, and potentially having fewer children as women might be less able or less willing to have a child after a certain age. Finally, some men who plan and would otherwise continue their education might choose to not do so or to further postpone it once they disattach from studying during their service. For some men, this might influence their marital and subsequent fertility outcomes. In either of these scenarios, a draft or its suspension is likely to be connected to fertility.

This study examines the effect of the suspension of the draft in Spain in December 2001 on three fertility outcomes of men that would have been drafted in the absence of the suspension. The author performs the analysis in a difference-in-differences framework. Potential concerns and policy implications are also discussed.

The findings suggest that after the suspension of the draft, individuals started to have their first child earlier given that they decide to have children. Consistent with the overall time trend, they became less likely to have a child and started to have fewer children. However, the age at birth of the first child decreased while the number of children and the likelihood of having a child increased for men relative to women, after compared to before the suspension of the mandatory draft.

The author extends prior literature by investigating the effect of the abolition of compulsory military service in Spain in December 2001 on fertility. This is novel is several ways. First, to the best of the author’s knowledge, previous literature has examined the effect of this Spanish reform only on labor market outcomes prior to men's conscription. Second, even for other countries that terminated the compulsory draft, fertility has been under-studied, providing an opportunity for further exploration. Third, this analysis is based on rich Census data, representative of the population in Spain. Finally, given the inconclusive findings of previous studies for other countries and the proposed re-introduction of the draft in some parts of Europe, additional evidence of the effect of the conscription has important policy implications necessary for the evaluation of future military service policy decisions.

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Effect of military service on fertility: evidence from the 2001 draft suspension in Spain10.1108/JES-02-2023-0096Journal of Economic Studies2023-08-03© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedStefani Milovanska-FarringtonJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-08-0310.1108/JES-02-2023-0096https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-02-2023-0096/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Assessing the resilience of the US banking sector under a macroeconomic stress testinghttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-03-2023-0116/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe increased capital requirements and the implementation of new liquidity standards under Basel III sparked various concerns among researchers, academics and other stakeholders. The question is whether Basel III regulation is ideal, that is, adequate to deal with a crisis, such as the 2007–2009 global financial crisis? The purpose of this paper is threefold: First, perform a stress testing exercise on the US banking sector, while examining liquidity and solvency risk indicators jointly under the Basel III regulatory framework. Second, allow the study to cover the post-crisis period, while referring to key Basel III regulatory requirements. And third, focus on the resilience of domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), which are supposed to support the US financial system in times of stress and therefore whose failure causes the entire financial system to fail. The authors used a sample of the 24 largest US banks observed over the period Q1-2015 to Q1-2021 and a scenario-based vector autoregressive conditional forecasting approach. The authors found that the model successfully produces accurate forecasts and simulates the responses of the solvency and liquidity indicators to different real and historical macroeconomic shocks. The authors also found that the US banking sector is resilient and can withstand both historical and hypothetical macroeconomic shocks because of its compliance with the Basel III capital and liquidity regulations, which consist of encouraging banks to hold high-quality liquid assets and stable funding resources and to strengthen their capital, which absorbs the losses incurred in a crisis. The authors developed a framework for testing the resilience of the US banking sector under macroeconomic shocks, while examining liquidity and solvency risk indicators jointly under Basel III regulatory framework, a point not yet well studied elsewhere, and most studies on this subject are based on precrisis data. The authors also focused on the resilience of D-SIBs, whose failure causes the failure of the entire financial system, which previous studies have failed to examine.Assessing the resilience of the US banking sector under a macroeconomic stress testing
Mohamed Lachaab
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The increased capital requirements and the implementation of new liquidity standards under Basel III sparked various concerns among researchers, academics and other stakeholders. The question is whether Basel III regulation is ideal, that is, adequate to deal with a crisis, such as the 2007–2009 global financial crisis? The purpose of this paper is threefold: First, perform a stress testing exercise on the US banking sector, while examining liquidity and solvency risk indicators jointly under the Basel III regulatory framework. Second, allow the study to cover the post-crisis period, while referring to key Basel III regulatory requirements. And third, focus on the resilience of domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), which are supposed to support the US financial system in times of stress and therefore whose failure causes the entire financial system to fail.

The authors used a sample of the 24 largest US banks observed over the period Q1-2015 to Q1-2021 and a scenario-based vector autoregressive conditional forecasting approach.

The authors found that the model successfully produces accurate forecasts and simulates the responses of the solvency and liquidity indicators to different real and historical macroeconomic shocks. The authors also found that the US banking sector is resilient and can withstand both historical and hypothetical macroeconomic shocks because of its compliance with the Basel III capital and liquidity regulations, which consist of encouraging banks to hold high-quality liquid assets and stable funding resources and to strengthen their capital, which absorbs the losses incurred in a crisis.

The authors developed a framework for testing the resilience of the US banking sector under macroeconomic shocks, while examining liquidity and solvency risk indicators jointly under Basel III regulatory framework, a point not yet well studied elsewhere, and most studies on this subject are based on precrisis data. The authors also focused on the resilience of D-SIBs, whose failure causes the failure of the entire financial system, which previous studies have failed to examine.

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Assessing the resilience of the US banking sector under a macroeconomic stress testing10.1108/JES-03-2023-0116Journal of Economic Studies2023-11-14© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedMohamed LachaabJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-11-1410.1108/JES-03-2023-0116https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-03-2023-0116/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Poverty and financial development: an asymmetric and nonlinear ARDL analysis for Indiahttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-03-2023-0129/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe primary objective of the paper is to examine the asymmetric Cointegration and asymmetric causality between financial development and poverty alleviation on annual data in Indian context over the period from 1980 to 2019. First nonlinearity test by Brooks et al. (1999) is applied to ascertain the nonlinear behavior of the variables used. Once the nonlinear behavior of variables is confirmed, asymmetric and nonlinear unit root tests by Kapetanios and Shin (2008) are applied to check for the order of integration of selected variables. Next, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) is employed to analyze the asymmetric Cointegration. Finally, Hatemi-j- asymmetric causality tests is applied to work out the direction of asymmetric causality. The empirical findings document the existence of asymmetries in the short-run as well as long-run between poverty and financial development. The asymmetry reveals that negative financial development shocks leave a more profound impact on poverty alleviation than their positive equivalents. The findings of Wald's test also confirm the presence of asymmetric Cointegration. The asymmetric cumulative dynamic multipliers used to examine the behavior of asymmetries and adjustments with respect to time lend credence to the results calculated using NARDL estimator. This result exhibits the robustness of the model. Furthermore, the result emanating from recently introduced asymmetric causality test reveals a unidirectional asymmetric causality between negative shocks in financial development and poverty. The findings of the present study necessitate the need for investigating asymmetric and nonlinear effects in finance–poverty nexus, which existent literature has completely neglected, in order to have relevant policy conclusions. The study used “Per capita consumption expenditure” as a measure for poverty due to lack of continuous time series data on headcount ratio. In future, researchers can extend this study by incorporating headcount ratio as a measure of poverty in their respective works. There is further scope of research on this issue by finding out the impact of formal and informal sources of credit on poverty separately. A panel data study for developing countries over a period of time could further confirm/negate the findings of the present study. To the best of the authors’ knowledge none of the studies in Indian context has scrutinized asymmetric and nonlinear impact of financial development on poverty. To dredge up asymmetric structures at work, the authors have used the highly celebrated NARDL estimator. To enrich the existent body of knowledge along the lines of asymmetric (nonlinear) linkages, the authors have also used recently introduced asymmetric causality test by Hatemi-j-(2012) to find out the direction asymmetric causality.Poverty and financial development: an asymmetric and nonlinear ARDL analysis for India
Ishfaq Nazir Khanday, Md. Tarique, Inayat Ullah Wani, Muzffar Hussain Dar
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The primary objective of the paper is to examine the asymmetric Cointegration and asymmetric causality between financial development and poverty alleviation on annual data in Indian context over the period from 1980 to 2019.

First nonlinearity test by Brooks et al. (1999) is applied to ascertain the nonlinear behavior of the variables used. Once the nonlinear behavior of variables is confirmed, asymmetric and nonlinear unit root tests by Kapetanios and Shin (2008) are applied to check for the order of integration of selected variables. Next, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) is employed to analyze the asymmetric Cointegration. Finally, Hatemi-j- asymmetric causality tests is applied to work out the direction of asymmetric causality.

The empirical findings document the existence of asymmetries in the short-run as well as long-run between poverty and financial development. The asymmetry reveals that negative financial development shocks leave a more profound impact on poverty alleviation than their positive equivalents. The findings of Wald's test also confirm the presence of asymmetric Cointegration. The asymmetric cumulative dynamic multipliers used to examine the behavior of asymmetries and adjustments with respect to time lend credence to the results calculated using NARDL estimator. This result exhibits the robustness of the model. Furthermore, the result emanating from recently introduced asymmetric causality test reveals a unidirectional asymmetric causality between negative shocks in financial development and poverty. The findings of the present study necessitate the need for investigating asymmetric and nonlinear effects in finance–poverty nexus, which existent literature has completely neglected, in order to have relevant policy conclusions.

The study used “Per capita consumption expenditure” as a measure for poverty due to lack of continuous time series data on headcount ratio. In future, researchers can extend this study by incorporating headcount ratio as a measure of poverty in their respective works. There is further scope of research on this issue by finding out the impact of formal and informal sources of credit on poverty separately. A panel data study for developing countries over a period of time could further confirm/negate the findings of the present study.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge none of the studies in Indian context has scrutinized asymmetric and nonlinear impact of financial development on poverty. To dredge up asymmetric structures at work, the authors have used the highly celebrated NARDL estimator. To enrich the existent body of knowledge along the lines of asymmetric (nonlinear) linkages, the authors have also used recently introduced asymmetric causality test by Hatemi-j-(2012) to find out the direction asymmetric causality.

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Poverty and financial development: an asymmetric and nonlinear ARDL analysis for India10.1108/JES-03-2023-0129Journal of Economic Studies2023-09-14© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedIshfaq Nazir KhandayMd. TariqueInayat Ullah WaniMuzffar Hussain DarJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-09-1410.1108/JES-03-2023-0129https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-03-2023-0129/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Russia–Ukraine war and the impact on Indian economyhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-03-2023-0136/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestIndia is not geographically close to either Russia or Ukraine. However, India's trade relations with them make it vulnerable to the consequences of the war between these countries. Thus, the present study aims to examine the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on various sectoral indices of the Indian economy. Event study methodology has been used in this study for analysis. The date of the war announcement is the event day. The sample studied includes ten sectors of the Indian economy listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Results correspond to the period of −167 days to +20 days of the announcement of the war, i.e. from June 25, 2021, to March 28, 2022. Almost all the sample sectors earned significantly positive abnormal returns in the post-event period. The metal industry has led this group by showcasing the highest abnormal returns. Though Indian sectors made overall positive returns, the market soon corrected itself and abnormal returns were wiped out. These results can benefit portfolio managers, analysts, investors and policymakers in hedging risks and selecting suitable investments during increased global uncertainty. The study's conclusions help policymakers establish an institutional and supervisory framework that will make it easier to spot systematic risks and reduce them by putting countercyclical measures in place. India has no geographical proximity or trade relations with Russia or Ukraine, as strong as any other European country. However, Russia has remained a strong ally to India in the trade of defense equipment. Similar is the case with Ukraine, a significant global partner for India. Thus, the impact of conflict between these two countries has not been limited to Europe only but has also engulfed related economies. Hence, the present study is one of the first attempts to examine the burns sustained by the Indian economy due to this war.Russia–Ukraine war and the impact on Indian economy
Anindita Bhattacharjee, Dolly Gaur, Kanishka Gupta
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

India is not geographically close to either Russia or Ukraine. However, India's trade relations with them make it vulnerable to the consequences of the war between these countries. Thus, the present study aims to examine the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on various sectoral indices of the Indian economy.

Event study methodology has been used in this study for analysis. The date of the war announcement is the event day. The sample studied includes ten sectors of the Indian economy listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Results correspond to the period of −167 days to +20 days of the announcement of the war, i.e. from June 25, 2021, to March 28, 2022.

Almost all the sample sectors earned significantly positive abnormal returns in the post-event period. The metal industry has led this group by showcasing the highest abnormal returns. Though Indian sectors made overall positive returns, the market soon corrected itself and abnormal returns were wiped out.

These results can benefit portfolio managers, analysts, investors and policymakers in hedging risks and selecting suitable investments during increased global uncertainty. The study's conclusions help policymakers establish an institutional and supervisory framework that will make it easier to spot systematic risks and reduce them by putting countercyclical measures in place.

India has no geographical proximity or trade relations with Russia or Ukraine, as strong as any other European country. However, Russia has remained a strong ally to India in the trade of defense equipment. Similar is the case with Ukraine, a significant global partner for India. Thus, the impact of conflict between these two countries has not been limited to Europe only but has also engulfed related economies. Hence, the present study is one of the first attempts to examine the burns sustained by the Indian economy due to this war.

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Russia–Ukraine war and the impact on Indian economy10.1108/JES-03-2023-0136Journal of Economic Studies2023-09-18© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedAnindita BhattacharjeeDolly GaurKanishka GuptaJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-09-1810.1108/JES-03-2023-0136https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-03-2023-0136/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Unpacking the dynamics of military spending in a globalized world: economic impacts with a network GVAR modelhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-03-2023-0137/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestIn this work, the authors analyze the dynamic interdependencies between military expenditures and the real economy for the period 1970–2018, and the authors' approach allows for the existence of dominant economies in the system. In this study, the authors employ a Network General Equilibrium GVAR (global vector autoregressive) model. By accounting for the interconnection among the top twelve military spenders, the authors' findings show that China acts as a leader in the global military scene based on the respective centrality measures. Meanwhile, statistically significant deviations from equilibrium are observed in most of the economies' military expenses, when subjected to an unanticipated unit shock of other countries. Nonetheless, in the medium run, the shocks tend to die out and economies converge to an equilibrium position. With the authors' methodology the authors are able to capture not only the effect of nearness on a country's military spending, as the past literature has documented, but also a country's defense and economic dependencies with other countries and how a unit's military expenses could shape the spending of the rest. Using state-to-the-art quantitative and econometric techniques, the authors provide robust and comprehensive analysis.Unpacking the dynamics of military spending in a globalized world: economic impacts with a network GVAR model
Claire Economidou, Dimitris Karamanis, Alexandra Kechrinioti, Konstantinos N. Konstantakis, Panayotis G. Michaelides
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

In this work, the authors analyze the dynamic interdependencies between military expenditures and the real economy for the period 1970–2018, and the authors' approach allows for the existence of dominant economies in the system.

In this study, the authors employ a Network General Equilibrium GVAR (global vector autoregressive) model.

By accounting for the interconnection among the top twelve military spenders, the authors' findings show that China acts as a leader in the global military scene based on the respective centrality measures. Meanwhile, statistically significant deviations from equilibrium are observed in most of the economies' military expenses, when subjected to an unanticipated unit shock of other countries. Nonetheless, in the medium run, the shocks tend to die out and economies converge to an equilibrium position.

With the authors' methodology the authors are able to capture not only the effect of nearness on a country's military spending, as the past literature has documented, but also a country's defense and economic dependencies with other countries and how a unit's military expenses could shape the spending of the rest. Using state-to-the-art quantitative and econometric techniques, the authors provide robust and comprehensive analysis.

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Unpacking the dynamics of military spending in a globalized world: economic impacts with a network GVAR model10.1108/JES-03-2023-0137Journal of Economic Studies2023-07-14© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedClaire EconomidouDimitris KaramanisAlexandra KechriniotiKonstantinos N. KonstantakisPanayotis G. MichaelidesJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-07-1410.1108/JES-03-2023-0137https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-03-2023-0137/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
The dance of dependence: a macro-perspective on financial instability and its complex influence on the Euro-American green marketshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-03-2023-0158/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study adopts a new macro-perspective to explore the complex and dynamic links between financial instability and the Euro-American green equity market. Its primary focus and novelty is to shed light on the non-linear and asymmetric characteristics of dependence, causality, and contagion within various time and frequency domains. Specifically, the authors scrutinize how financial instability in the U.S. and EU interacts with their respective green stock markets, while also examining the cross-impact on each other's green equity markets. The analysis is carried out over short-, medium- and long-term horizons and under different market conditions, ranging from bearish and normal to bullish. This study breaks new ground by employing a model-free and non-parametric approach to examine the relationship between the instability of the global financial system and the green equity market performance in the U.S. and EU. This study's methodology offers new insights into the time- and frequency-varying relationship, using wavelet coherence supplemented with quantile causality and quantile-on-quantile regression analyses. This advanced approach unveils non-linear and asymmetric causal links and characterizes their signs, effectively distinguishing between bearish, normal, and bullish market conditions, as well as short-, medium- and long-term horizons. This study's findings reveal that financial instability has a strong negative impact on the green stock market over the medium to long term, in bullish market conditions and in times of economic and extra-economic turbulence. This implies that green stocks cannot be an effective hedge against systemic financial risk during periods of turbulence and euphoria. Moreover, the authors demonstrate that U.S. financial instability not only affects the U.S. green equity market, but also has significant spillover effects on the EU market and vice versa, indicating the existence of a Euro-American contagion mechanism. Interestingly, this study's results also reveal a positive correlation between financial instability and green equity market performance under normal market conditions, suggesting a possible feedback loop effect. This study represents pioneering work in exploring the non-linear and asymmetric connections between financial instability and the Euro-American stock markets. Notably, it discerns how these interactions vary over the short, medium, and long term and under different market conditions, including bearish, normal, and bullish states. Understanding these characteristics is instrumental in shaping effective policies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including access to clean, affordable energy (SDG 7), and to preserve the stability of the international financial system.The dance of dependence: a macro-perspective on financial instability and its complex influence on the Euro-American green markets
Brahim Gaies, Najeh Chaâbane
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study adopts a new macro-perspective to explore the complex and dynamic links between financial instability and the Euro-American green equity market. Its primary focus and novelty is to shed light on the non-linear and asymmetric characteristics of dependence, causality, and contagion within various time and frequency domains. Specifically, the authors scrutinize how financial instability in the U.S. and EU interacts with their respective green stock markets, while also examining the cross-impact on each other's green equity markets. The analysis is carried out over short-, medium- and long-term horizons and under different market conditions, ranging from bearish and normal to bullish.

This study breaks new ground by employing a model-free and non-parametric approach to examine the relationship between the instability of the global financial system and the green equity market performance in the U.S. and EU. This study's methodology offers new insights into the time- and frequency-varying relationship, using wavelet coherence supplemented with quantile causality and quantile-on-quantile regression analyses. This advanced approach unveils non-linear and asymmetric causal links and characterizes their signs, effectively distinguishing between bearish, normal, and bullish market conditions, as well as short-, medium- and long-term horizons.

This study's findings reveal that financial instability has a strong negative impact on the green stock market over the medium to long term, in bullish market conditions and in times of economic and extra-economic turbulence. This implies that green stocks cannot be an effective hedge against systemic financial risk during periods of turbulence and euphoria. Moreover, the authors demonstrate that U.S. financial instability not only affects the U.S. green equity market, but also has significant spillover effects on the EU market and vice versa, indicating the existence of a Euro-American contagion mechanism. Interestingly, this study's results also reveal a positive correlation between financial instability and green equity market performance under normal market conditions, suggesting a possible feedback loop effect.

This study represents pioneering work in exploring the non-linear and asymmetric connections between financial instability and the Euro-American stock markets. Notably, it discerns how these interactions vary over the short, medium, and long term and under different market conditions, including bearish, normal, and bullish states. Understanding these characteristics is instrumental in shaping effective policies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including access to clean, affordable energy (SDG 7), and to preserve the stability of the international financial system.

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The dance of dependence: a macro-perspective on financial instability and its complex influence on the Euro-American green markets10.1108/JES-03-2023-0158Journal of Economic Studies2023-07-21© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedBrahim GaiesNajeh ChaâbaneJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-07-2110.1108/JES-03-2023-0158https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-03-2023-0158/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Disinflation costs and macroprudential policies: real and welfare effectshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-03-2023-0161/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis paper analyzes real and welfare effects of a permanent change in inflation rate, focusing on macroprudential policy’ role and its interaction with monetary policy. While investigating disinflation costs, the authors simulate a medium-scale dynamic general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints, credit frictions and macroprudential authority. Providing discussions on different policy scenarios in a context where still it is expected high inflation, there are three key contributions. First, when macroprudential authority actively operates to improve financial stability, losses caused by disinflation are limited. Second, a Taylor rule directly responding to financial variables might entail a trade-off between price and financial stability objectives, by increasing disinflation costs. Third, disinflation is welfare improving for savers, while costly for borrowers and banks. Indeed, while savers benefit from policies reducing price stickiness distortion, borrowers are worried about credit frictions, coming from collateral constraint. The paper suggests threefold policy implications: the macroprudential authority should actively intervene during a disinflation process to minimize costs and financial instability deriving from it; policymakers should implement a disinflationary policy stabilizing also output; the central bank and the macroprudential regulator should pursue financial and price stability goals, separately. This paper is the first attempt to study effects of a permanent inflation target reduction in focusing on the macroprudential policy’ role.Disinflation costs and macroprudential policies: real and welfare effects
Francesco Busato, Maria Ferrara, Monica Varlese
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This paper analyzes real and welfare effects of a permanent change in inflation rate, focusing on macroprudential policy’ role and its interaction with monetary policy.

While investigating disinflation costs, the authors simulate a medium-scale dynamic general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints, credit frictions and macroprudential authority.

Providing discussions on different policy scenarios in a context where still it is expected high inflation, there are three key contributions. First, when macroprudential authority actively operates to improve financial stability, losses caused by disinflation are limited. Second, a Taylor rule directly responding to financial variables might entail a trade-off between price and financial stability objectives, by increasing disinflation costs. Third, disinflation is welfare improving for savers, while costly for borrowers and banks. Indeed, while savers benefit from policies reducing price stickiness distortion, borrowers are worried about credit frictions, coming from collateral constraint.

The paper suggests threefold policy implications: the macroprudential authority should actively intervene during a disinflation process to minimize costs and financial instability deriving from it; policymakers should implement a disinflationary policy stabilizing also output; the central bank and the macroprudential regulator should pursue financial and price stability goals, separately.

This paper is the first attempt to study effects of a permanent inflation target reduction in focusing on the macroprudential policy’ role.

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Disinflation costs and macroprudential policies: real and welfare effects10.1108/JES-03-2023-0161Journal of Economic Studies2023-12-28© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedFrancesco BusatoMaria FerraraMonica VarleseJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-12-2810.1108/JES-03-2023-0161https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-03-2023-0161/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Has the heterogeneity of culture, investor sentiment and uncertainty altered bank stock returns in the MENA region?https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-04-2023-0175/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis paper has analysed the impact of cultural dimensions, investor sentiment and uncertainty on bank stock returns. Also, the study examined the influences of the interaction between cultural dimensions and individual (private) sentiment (investor sentiment). To meet the study's objectives, a two-step generalised method of moments estimator was applied to the study sample, which included 105 banks in the nine Middle East and North African region countries between 2010 and 2020. The cultural dimensions of individualism and masculinity were found to have a positive and significant effect on banks' buy and hold stock return (BUH). At the same time, power distance and uncertainty avoidance were discovered to have negative effects. Besides, the findings revealed that the interactions of power distance, individual sentiment and uncertainty avoidance had positive and significant relationships with banks' BUH. However, individualism, individual sentiment and masculinity had inverse relationships with banks' BUH. Furthermore, the findings revealed that investor sentiment positively influenced banks' BUH. Finally, uncertainty influenced banks' BUH stock returns positively. Important implications for participants in the financial sector and governments may be learnt from this study's conclusions. Due to cultural biases, this study's findings suggested that investors overreact in the stock market. Additionally, this research comprises one of the few studies that have overviewed the link between classical and behavioural finance in MENA countries with distinctive cultural characteristics.Has the heterogeneity of culture, investor sentiment and uncertainty altered bank stock returns in the MENA region?
Syed Faisal Shah
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This paper has analysed the impact of cultural dimensions, investor sentiment and uncertainty on bank stock returns. Also, the study examined the influences of the interaction between cultural dimensions and individual (private) sentiment (investor sentiment).

To meet the study's objectives, a two-step generalised method of moments estimator was applied to the study sample, which included 105 banks in the nine Middle East and North African region countries between 2010 and 2020.

The cultural dimensions of individualism and masculinity were found to have a positive and significant effect on banks' buy and hold stock return (BUH). At the same time, power distance and uncertainty avoidance were discovered to have negative effects. Besides, the findings revealed that the interactions of power distance, individual sentiment and uncertainty avoidance had positive and significant relationships with banks' BUH. However, individualism, individual sentiment and masculinity had inverse relationships with banks' BUH. Furthermore, the findings revealed that investor sentiment positively influenced banks' BUH. Finally, uncertainty influenced banks' BUH stock returns positively.

Important implications for participants in the financial sector and governments may be learnt from this study's conclusions. Due to cultural biases, this study's findings suggested that investors overreact in the stock market.

Additionally, this research comprises one of the few studies that have overviewed the link between classical and behavioural finance in MENA countries with distinctive cultural characteristics.

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Has the heterogeneity of culture, investor sentiment and uncertainty altered bank stock returns in the MENA region?10.1108/JES-04-2023-0175Journal of Economic Studies2023-08-08© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedSyed Faisal ShahJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-08-0810.1108/JES-04-2023-0175https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-04-2023-0175/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Climate change and agricultural productivity in Asian and Pacific countries: how does research and development matter?https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-04-2023-0192/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study empirically examines the impact of climate change and agricultural research and development (R&D) as well as their interaction on agricultural productivity in 12 selected Asian and Pacific countries over the period of 1990–2018. Various estimation methods for panel data, including Fixed Effects (FE), the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) and two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) were used. Results show that both proxies of climate change – temperature and precipitation – have negative impacts on agricultural productivity. Notably, agricultural R&D investments not only increase agricultural productivity but also mitigate the detrimental impact of climate change proxied by temperature on agricultural productivity. Interestingly, climate change proxied by precipitation initially reduces agricultural productivity until a threshold of agricultural R&D beyond which precipitation increases agricultural productivity. The findings imply useful policies to boost agricultural productivity by using R&D in the context of rising climate change in the vulnerable continent. This study contributes to the literature in two ways. First, this study examines how climate change affects agricultural productivity in Asian and Pacific countries – those are most vulnerable to climate change. Second, this study assesses the role of R&D in improving agricultural productivity as well as its moderating effect in reducing the harmful impact of climate change on agricultural productivity.Climate change and agricultural productivity in Asian and Pacific countries: how does research and development matter?
Cong Minh Huynh
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study empirically examines the impact of climate change and agricultural research and development (R&D) as well as their interaction on agricultural productivity in 12 selected Asian and Pacific countries over the period of 1990–2018.

Various estimation methods for panel data, including Fixed Effects (FE), the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) and two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) were used.

Results show that both proxies of climate change – temperature and precipitation – have negative impacts on agricultural productivity. Notably, agricultural R&D investments not only increase agricultural productivity but also mitigate the detrimental impact of climate change proxied by temperature on agricultural productivity. Interestingly, climate change proxied by precipitation initially reduces agricultural productivity until a threshold of agricultural R&D beyond which precipitation increases agricultural productivity.

The findings imply useful policies to boost agricultural productivity by using R&D in the context of rising climate change in the vulnerable continent.

This study contributes to the literature in two ways. First, this study examines how climate change affects agricultural productivity in Asian and Pacific countries – those are most vulnerable to climate change. Second, this study assesses the role of R&D in improving agricultural productivity as well as its moderating effect in reducing the harmful impact of climate change on agricultural productivity.

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Climate change and agricultural productivity in Asian and Pacific countries: how does research and development matter?10.1108/JES-04-2023-0192Journal of Economic Studies2023-08-14© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedCong Minh HuynhJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-08-1410.1108/JES-04-2023-0192https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-04-2023-0192/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Does central bank credibility from professional forecasters and consumers affect the interest rate and its expectations?https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-04-2023-0205/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis paper aims to contribute to the analysis concerning how inflation forecasts from different economic agents (professional forecasters and consumers) lead to varying levels of central bank credibility and how it affects the monetary policy interest rate and its expectations. Based on the Brazilian economy data from June 2007 to May 2022, the authors provide evidence that is useful for search mechanisms that improve the conduct of monetary policy through the management of inflation expectations. The authors perform several ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments regressions inspired by the Taylor rule principle. In brief, the benchmark model considers that the monetary policy interest rate and its expectations respond to departures of inflation expectations to the target (a proxy for central bank credibility) and the level of economic activity. The main result of the analysis is that inflation expectations from professional forecasters and consumers imply different perceptions of central bank credibility that affect the monetary policy interest rate and expectations for horizons until one year ahead. The novelty that the authors bring from the analysis is that the authors calculate central bank credibility by taking into account the “public beliefs” of different economic agents. Furthermore, the authors analyze the effect of central bank credibility from professional forecasters and consumers on the monetary policy interest rate and its expectations.Does central bank credibility from professional forecasters and consumers affect the interest rate and its expectations?
Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, Cristiane Nascimento de Lima
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This paper aims to contribute to the analysis concerning how inflation forecasts from different economic agents (professional forecasters and consumers) lead to varying levels of central bank credibility and how it affects the monetary policy interest rate and its expectations.

Based on the Brazilian economy data from June 2007 to May 2022, the authors provide evidence that is useful for search mechanisms that improve the conduct of monetary policy through the management of inflation expectations. The authors perform several ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments regressions inspired by the Taylor rule principle. In brief, the benchmark model considers that the monetary policy interest rate and its expectations respond to departures of inflation expectations to the target (a proxy for central bank credibility) and the level of economic activity.

The main result of the analysis is that inflation expectations from professional forecasters and consumers imply different perceptions of central bank credibility that affect the monetary policy interest rate and expectations for horizons until one year ahead.

The novelty that the authors bring from the analysis is that the authors calculate central bank credibility by taking into account the “public beliefs” of different economic agents. Furthermore, the authors analyze the effect of central bank credibility from professional forecasters and consumers on the monetary policy interest rate and its expectations.

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Does central bank credibility from professional forecasters and consumers affect the interest rate and its expectations?10.1108/JES-04-2023-0205Journal of Economic Studies2023-10-16© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedHelder Ferreira de MendonçaCristiane Nascimento de LimaJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-10-1610.1108/JES-04-2023-0205https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-04-2023-0205/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Banking sector's reaction during the Russian invasion of Ukraine: who reacted the most?https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-04-2023-0206/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study aims to investigate the market reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, specifically in the banking sector. The research uses an event study and cross-sectional analysis, with market reaction measured by cumulative abnormal return (CAR). The sample comprised 1,126 banks. The results show that the market reacted negatively to the invasion both before and after its announcement. Developed and emerging markets saw a negative impact from the invasion, while frontier markets experienced only a slight impact. The authors also find that the banking markets of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members reacted significantly and negatively both before and after the invasion was announced. This demonstrates that the negative market reaction of NATO members was more impactful than that of other markets. Overall, this study shows that investors in the banking market are very sensitive to war. This is the first study to provide international evidence, specifically on the banking sector's reaction during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.Banking sector's reaction during the Russian invasion of Ukraine: who reacted the most?
Rizky Yudaruddin, Dadang Lesmana
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study aims to investigate the market reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, specifically in the banking sector.

The research uses an event study and cross-sectional analysis, with market reaction measured by cumulative abnormal return (CAR). The sample comprised 1,126 banks.

The results show that the market reacted negatively to the invasion both before and after its announcement. Developed and emerging markets saw a negative impact from the invasion, while frontier markets experienced only a slight impact. The authors also find that the banking markets of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members reacted significantly and negatively both before and after the invasion was announced. This demonstrates that the negative market reaction of NATO members was more impactful than that of other markets. Overall, this study shows that investors in the banking market are very sensitive to war.

This is the first study to provide international evidence, specifically on the banking sector's reaction during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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Banking sector's reaction during the Russian invasion of Ukraine: who reacted the most?10.1108/JES-04-2023-0206Journal of Economic Studies2023-11-06© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedRizky YudaruddinDadang LesmanaJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-11-0610.1108/JES-04-2023-0206https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-04-2023-0206/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Remittances and economic growth: a blessing for middle-income countries, ineffective for low-income countrieshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-04-2023-0207/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study investigates the impact of international remittances on the economic growth of remittance-receiving countries, using data from 113 developing countries between 1990 and 2015. The authors used a novel approach to address the potential endogeneity of remittances. The authors estimated bilateral remittances and use them to create weighted indicators of remittance-sending countries, which the authors then use as instruments for remittance inflows to remittance-receiving countries. The results indicate that while remittances have a positive impact on economic growth in developing countries with high human capital, they do not contribute to growth in developing countries with low human capital. The authors also examined the channels through which remittances affect growth. The findings suggested that remittances do not impact labor supply in developing countries with high human capital, but they reduce labor supply in countries with low human capital. Additionally, remittances increase investment in physical capital in developing countries with high human capital, but they do not have an effect on investment in developing countries with low human capital. The authors investigated the impact of remittances on economic growth using a novel approach to address the endogeneity of remittances. Additionally, the authors examined the different indirect channels through which remittances can impact economic growth, such as their effect on labor supply and investment.Remittances and economic growth: a blessing for middle-income countries, ineffective for low-income countries
SeyedSoroosh Azizi, Abed Aftabi, Mohsen Azizkhani, Kiana Yektansani
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study investigates the impact of international remittances on the economic growth of remittance-receiving countries, using data from 113 developing countries between 1990 and 2015.

The authors used a novel approach to address the potential endogeneity of remittances. The authors estimated bilateral remittances and use them to create weighted indicators of remittance-sending countries, which the authors then use as instruments for remittance inflows to remittance-receiving countries.

The results indicate that while remittances have a positive impact on economic growth in developing countries with high human capital, they do not contribute to growth in developing countries with low human capital. The authors also examined the channels through which remittances affect growth. The findings suggested that remittances do not impact labor supply in developing countries with high human capital, but they reduce labor supply in countries with low human capital. Additionally, remittances increase investment in physical capital in developing countries with high human capital, but they do not have an effect on investment in developing countries with low human capital.

The authors investigated the impact of remittances on economic growth using a novel approach to address the endogeneity of remittances. Additionally, the authors examined the different indirect channels through which remittances can impact economic growth, such as their effect on labor supply and investment.

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Remittances and economic growth: a blessing for middle-income countries, ineffective for low-income countries10.1108/JES-04-2023-0207Journal of Economic Studies2023-12-14© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedSeyedSoroosh AziziAbed AftabiMohsen AzizkhaniKiana YektansaniJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-12-1410.1108/JES-04-2023-0207https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-04-2023-0207/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
A probit-based analysis of the deep stock market drawdownshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0228/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study is motivated in part by the fact that the unfolding 2022 bear market, which has reached the −25% drawdown, has not been preceded by the inverted 10Y-3 m spread or an inverted near-term forward spread. The authors develop a three-factor probit model to predict/explain the deep stock market drawdowns, which the authors define as the drawdowns in excess of 20%. The study results show that (1) the rising credit risk predicts a deep drawdown about a year in advance and (2) the monetary policy easing precedes an imminent drawdown below the 20% threshold. This study three-factor probit model shows adaptability beyond the typical recessionary bear market and predicts/explains the liquidity-based selloffs, like the 2022 and possibly the 1987 deep drawdowns.A probit-based analysis of the deep stock market drawdowns
Damir Tokic, Dave Jackson
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study is motivated in part by the fact that the unfolding 2022 bear market, which has reached the −25% drawdown, has not been preceded by the inverted 10Y-3 m spread or an inverted near-term forward spread.

The authors develop a three-factor probit model to predict/explain the deep stock market drawdowns, which the authors define as the drawdowns in excess of 20%.

The study results show that (1) the rising credit risk predicts a deep drawdown about a year in advance and (2) the monetary policy easing precedes an imminent drawdown below the 20% threshold.

This study three-factor probit model shows adaptability beyond the typical recessionary bear market and predicts/explains the liquidity-based selloffs, like the 2022 and possibly the 1987 deep drawdowns.

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A probit-based analysis of the deep stock market drawdowns10.1108/JES-05-2023-0228Journal of Economic Studies2023-11-01© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedDamir TokicDave JacksonJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-11-0110.1108/JES-05-2023-0228https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0228/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Asymmetric causality between Bitcoin and tech stocks in the US market using mixed frequency datahttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0231/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study is the first to investigate the causal relationship between Bitcoin and equity price returns by sectors. Previous studies have focused on aggregated indices such as S&P500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones, but this study uses mixed frequency and disaggregated data at the sectoral level. This allows the authors to examine the nature, direction and strength of causality between Bitcoin and equity prices in different sectors in more detail. This paper utilizes an Unrestricted Asymmetric Mixed Data Sampling (U-AMIDAS) model to investigate the effect of high-frequency Bitcoin returns on a low-frequency series equity returns. This study also examines causality running from equity to Bitcoin returns by sector. The sample period covers United States (US) data from 3 Jan 2011 to 14 April 2023 across nine sectors: materials, energy, financial, industrial, technology, consumer staples, utilities, health and consumer discretionary. The study found that there is no causality running from Bitcoin to equity returns in any sector except for the technology sector. In the tech sector, lagged Bitcoin returns Granger cause changes in future equity prices asymmetrically. This means that falling Bitcoin prices significantly influence the tech sector during market pullbacks, but the opposite cannot be said during market rallies. The findings are consistent with those of other studies that have established that during market pullbacks, individual asset prices have a tendency to decline together, whereas during market rallies, they have a tendency to rise independently. In contrast, this study finds evidence of causality running from all sectors of the equity market to Bitcoin. The findings have significant implications for investors and fund managers, emphasizing the need to consider the asymmetric causality between Bitcoin and the tech sector. Investors should avoid excessive exposure to both Bitcoin and tech stocks in their portfolio, as this may lead to significant drawdowns during market corrections. Diversification across different asset classes and sectors may be a more prudent strategy to mitigate such risks. The study's findings underscore the need for investors to pay close attention to the frequency and disaggregation of data by sector in order to fully understand the true extent of the relationship between Bitcoin and the equity market.Asymmetric causality between Bitcoin and tech stocks in the US market using mixed frequency data
Abbas Valadkhani
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study is the first to investigate the causal relationship between Bitcoin and equity price returns by sectors. Previous studies have focused on aggregated indices such as S&P500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones, but this study uses mixed frequency and disaggregated data at the sectoral level. This allows the authors to examine the nature, direction and strength of causality between Bitcoin and equity prices in different sectors in more detail.

This paper utilizes an Unrestricted Asymmetric Mixed Data Sampling (U-AMIDAS) model to investigate the effect of high-frequency Bitcoin returns on a low-frequency series equity returns. This study also examines causality running from equity to Bitcoin returns by sector. The sample period covers United States (US) data from 3 Jan 2011 to 14 April 2023 across nine sectors: materials, energy, financial, industrial, technology, consumer staples, utilities, health and consumer discretionary.

The study found that there is no causality running from Bitcoin to equity returns in any sector except for the technology sector. In the tech sector, lagged Bitcoin returns Granger cause changes in future equity prices asymmetrically. This means that falling Bitcoin prices significantly influence the tech sector during market pullbacks, but the opposite cannot be said during market rallies. The findings are consistent with those of other studies that have established that during market pullbacks, individual asset prices have a tendency to decline together, whereas during market rallies, they have a tendency to rise independently. In contrast, this study finds evidence of causality running from all sectors of the equity market to Bitcoin.

The findings have significant implications for investors and fund managers, emphasizing the need to consider the asymmetric causality between Bitcoin and the tech sector. Investors should avoid excessive exposure to both Bitcoin and tech stocks in their portfolio, as this may lead to significant drawdowns during market corrections. Diversification across different asset classes and sectors may be a more prudent strategy to mitigate such risks.

The study's findings underscore the need for investors to pay close attention to the frequency and disaggregation of data by sector in order to fully understand the true extent of the relationship between Bitcoin and the equity market.

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Asymmetric causality between Bitcoin and tech stocks in the US market using mixed frequency data10.1108/JES-05-2023-0231Journal of Economic Studies2023-08-03© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedAbbas ValadkhaniJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-08-0310.1108/JES-05-2023-0231https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0231/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Home, unsweet home – effect of homeownership on financial investments of Indian householdshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0238/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe study analyzes the relationship between homeownership and financial investment of households in the context of emerging markets like India. It also examines how homeownership affects the portfolio decisions of Indian households. Using the nationally representative All-India Debt and Investment Survey of 2019 and employing an instrumental variable approach, the authors analyze the relationship between homeownership and the share of financial assets held by Indian households. The study also employs several sensitivity checks, including alternate estimation techniques and alternative definitions of the housing variables, and accounts for additional factors to ensure that the authors are able to capture the effect of homeownership on the outcome variable. The analysis suggests homeownership crowds out financial investment in India due to high repair and maintenance costs. The negative effect is mainly observed in urban households. Further, the findings imply that homeownership leads households to reallocate their asset portfolio. Homeowners have a lower share in liquid short term deposits, indicating the high liquidity risk of their portfolios. On the other hand, homeownership increases the share of long term retirement funds along with no effect on risky asset share. The authors observe that the crowding out effect is more striking for younger households and poorer households with low income, and the effect is lower for indebted households. The findings underscore the need for financial awareness programs so that housing does not crowd out liquid investments of households. Additionally, the results highlight that policies should first focus on young and poor households as the negative effect is more prominent for these groups. Finally, there is scope for policies to support repair and maintenance costs incurred by vulnerable households to reduce the negative effect of housing on liquid financial investments. This paper is among the few studies that provide insights into how homeownership relates to financial investment and portfolio decisions in the context of an emerging economy. Furthermore, the heterogeneous effects based on poor economic status and age underscore the need for complementary policies.Home, unsweet home – effect of homeownership on financial investments of Indian households
Shreya Lahiri, Shreya Biswas
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The study analyzes the relationship between homeownership and financial investment of households in the context of emerging markets like India. It also examines how homeownership affects the portfolio decisions of Indian households.

Using the nationally representative All-India Debt and Investment Survey of 2019 and employing an instrumental variable approach, the authors analyze the relationship between homeownership and the share of financial assets held by Indian households. The study also employs several sensitivity checks, including alternate estimation techniques and alternative definitions of the housing variables, and accounts for additional factors to ensure that the authors are able to capture the effect of homeownership on the outcome variable.

The analysis suggests homeownership crowds out financial investment in India due to high repair and maintenance costs. The negative effect is mainly observed in urban households. Further, the findings imply that homeownership leads households to reallocate their asset portfolio. Homeowners have a lower share in liquid short term deposits, indicating the high liquidity risk of their portfolios. On the other hand, homeownership increases the share of long term retirement funds along with no effect on risky asset share. The authors observe that the crowding out effect is more striking for younger households and poorer households with low income, and the effect is lower for indebted households.

The findings underscore the need for financial awareness programs so that housing does not crowd out liquid investments of households. Additionally, the results highlight that policies should first focus on young and poor households as the negative effect is more prominent for these groups. Finally, there is scope for policies to support repair and maintenance costs incurred by vulnerable households to reduce the negative effect of housing on liquid financial investments.

This paper is among the few studies that provide insights into how homeownership relates to financial investment and portfolio decisions in the context of an emerging economy. Furthermore, the heterogeneous effects based on poor economic status and age underscore the need for complementary policies.

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Home, unsweet home – effect of homeownership on financial investments of Indian households10.1108/JES-05-2023-0238Journal of Economic Studies2023-12-08© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedShreya LahiriShreya BiswasJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-12-0810.1108/JES-05-2023-0238https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0238/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
The parental role in intergenerational educational persistence: an empirical investigation with cross-country panel datahttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0246/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe main aim of this study is to investigate the role of fathers and mothers in the intergenerational educational persistence for sons and daughters under two dimensions that characterize the clusters of countries: redistributive policy and governance. Data from the Global Database of Intergenerational Mobility (GDIM), hierarchical cluster analysis on principal components and panel regression are used in this study to estimate intergenerational educational correlation and to investigate its determinants related to the parents’ and descendants’ education variables in 93 countries grouped in four clusters. The empirical analysis is differentiated by gender combinations of parents and descendants. In the clusters of countries characterized by high inequalities and poor governance, our findings show that the role of the fathers is stronger than that of the mothers in educational transmission; fathers and mothers are more influential for the daughters rather than for the sons; parental educational privilege is the main driver of intergenerational educational persistence; there is an inverse U-curve in the association between educational inequality of the parents and educational correlation for the sons. Differently, in the countries characterized by high income, low redistributive conflict and better governance, the role of the mothers is stronger and education mobility for the daughters is higher than that for the sons. The authors’ results remark on the importance of social welfare policies aimed to expand a meritocratic public education system including schooling transfers for lower social class students and narrowing the gender gap in educational mobility between daughters and sons. Social welfare policies should also be oriented to spread high quality child care systems that help to foster greater women equality in the labor market, because the strength of educational persistence depends on the position of the mother in the economic hierarchy. The distinctiveness of the paper can be found in the fact that this study investigates the parental role differentiating by gender and coupling hierarchical cluster analysis on principal components with panel regression models. This allows us to have a sample of 93 countries aggregated in four groups defined in two dimensions: redistributive policy and governance. Amongst the determinants of educational transmission, we consider not only education’s years of the parents but also other determinants, such as educational inequality and privilege of the parents. We also identify the effects of investment in human capital and educational inequalities for the descendants on education mobility.The parental role in intergenerational educational persistence: an empirical investigation with cross-country panel data
Francesco Salomone Marino, Maria Berrittella
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The main aim of this study is to investigate the role of fathers and mothers in the intergenerational educational persistence for sons and daughters under two dimensions that characterize the clusters of countries: redistributive policy and governance.

Data from the Global Database of Intergenerational Mobility (GDIM), hierarchical cluster analysis on principal components and panel regression are used in this study to estimate intergenerational educational correlation and to investigate its determinants related to the parents’ and descendants’ education variables in 93 countries grouped in four clusters. The empirical analysis is differentiated by gender combinations of parents and descendants.

In the clusters of countries characterized by high inequalities and poor governance, our findings show that the role of the fathers is stronger than that of the mothers in educational transmission; fathers and mothers are more influential for the daughters rather than for the sons; parental educational privilege is the main driver of intergenerational educational persistence; there is an inverse U-curve in the association between educational inequality of the parents and educational correlation for the sons. Differently, in the countries characterized by high income, low redistributive conflict and better governance, the role of the mothers is stronger and education mobility for the daughters is higher than that for the sons.

The authors’ results remark on the importance of social welfare policies aimed to expand a meritocratic public education system including schooling transfers for lower social class students and narrowing the gender gap in educational mobility between daughters and sons. Social welfare policies should also be oriented to spread high quality child care systems that help to foster greater women equality in the labor market, because the strength of educational persistence depends on the position of the mother in the economic hierarchy.

The distinctiveness of the paper can be found in the fact that this study investigates the parental role differentiating by gender and coupling hierarchical cluster analysis on principal components with panel regression models. This allows us to have a sample of 93 countries aggregated in four groups defined in two dimensions: redistributive policy and governance. Amongst the determinants of educational transmission, we consider not only education’s years of the parents but also other determinants, such as educational inequality and privilege of the parents. We also identify the effects of investment in human capital and educational inequalities for the descendants on education mobility.

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The parental role in intergenerational educational persistence: an empirical investigation with cross-country panel data10.1108/JES-05-2023-0246Journal of Economic Studies2024-03-15© 2024 Emerald Publishing LimitedFrancesco Salomone MarinoMaria BerrittellaJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-03-1510.1108/JES-05-2023-0246https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0246/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Emerald Publishing Limited
Does monetary policy impact income inequality?https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0254/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis article analyzes the impact of monetary policy on income inequality across 16 advanced economies. The author investigates three key points: (1) the relationship between domestic monetary policy and domestic income inequality, (2) the spillover effect of USA monetary policy (including quantitative easing) on international inequality and (3) the quantitative influence of the monetary policies of both the USA and the Eurozone on the formation of domestic income inequalities. The author employed the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, which uses Vector Autoregressive with Exogenous Variables (VARXs) models of each economy to build an integrated system that enables us to evaluate individual responses to global shocks. The author's analysis reveals that (1) contractionary monetary policy exacerbates domestic inequality and (2) USA monetary policy, including quantitative easing, affects international inequality. Furthermore, the author's variance decomposition analysis highlights that USA monetary policy is especially influential on income inequality in Norway and Sweden. Additionally, the cointegrating analysis confirms that monetary policy's impact on inequality persists in the long term. Most of the studies focused on investigating domestic economies as closed economies. However, the author's approach differs in that the author uses the GVAR, which treats all economies as open. This allows us to incorporate the world economy into the domestic dynamics and connect the economies using bilateral trade. Another advantage of the GVAR is that it captures spillover effects by modeling each economy and constructing the international economy.Does monetary policy impact income inequality?
Luccas Assis Attílio
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This article analyzes the impact of monetary policy on income inequality across 16 advanced economies. The author investigates three key points: (1) the relationship between domestic monetary policy and domestic income inequality, (2) the spillover effect of USA monetary policy (including quantitative easing) on international inequality and (3) the quantitative influence of the monetary policies of both the USA and the Eurozone on the formation of domestic income inequalities.

The author employed the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, which uses Vector Autoregressive with Exogenous Variables (VARXs) models of each economy to build an integrated system that enables us to evaluate individual responses to global shocks.

The author's analysis reveals that (1) contractionary monetary policy exacerbates domestic inequality and (2) USA monetary policy, including quantitative easing, affects international inequality. Furthermore, the author's variance decomposition analysis highlights that USA monetary policy is especially influential on income inequality in Norway and Sweden. Additionally, the cointegrating analysis confirms that monetary policy's impact on inequality persists in the long term.

Most of the studies focused on investigating domestic economies as closed economies. However, the author's approach differs in that the author uses the GVAR, which treats all economies as open. This allows us to incorporate the world economy into the domestic dynamics and connect the economies using bilateral trade. Another advantage of the GVAR is that it captures spillover effects by modeling each economy and constructing the international economy.

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Does monetary policy impact income inequality?10.1108/JES-05-2023-0254Journal of Economic Studies2023-11-06© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedLuccas Assis AttílioJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-11-0610.1108/JES-05-2023-0254https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0254/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Monetary policy in practice: do central banks respond to movements in exchange rate and credit growth?https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0258/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth. This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods. The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock. This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.Monetary policy in practice: do central banks respond to movements in exchange rate and credit growth?
Hai Le, Phuong Nguyen
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.

This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.

The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.

This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.

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Monetary policy in practice: do central banks respond to movements in exchange rate and credit growth?10.1108/JES-05-2023-0258Journal of Economic Studies2023-12-26© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedHai LePhuong NguyenJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-12-2610.1108/JES-05-2023-0258https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0258/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
The nexus between arms imports, military expenditures and economic growth of the top arms importers in the world: a pooled mean group approachhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0265/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis paper explores whether data back the claim that imports of armaments are inherently bad for economic growth. Regardless of one's point of view, the production and trade of weaponry is a significant industry with serious economic implications that warrant investigation. The financial repercussions of military spending have been extensively studied, but the economic effects of arms importation remain unknown. This study adopts a pooled mean group approach to investigate the nexus between arms imports, military expenditure and per capita GDP for a balanced panel of twenty-five of the top arms importers in the world from 2000 to 2021. The authors find that arms imports and military spending negatively impact GDP per capita in the short run, but military spending is beneficial over the long run. The authors also used the Dumitrescu Hurlin Granger causality test, which revealed a unidirectional causation between per capita GDP and military expenditure, and a unidirectional causal relationship from military spending to arms imports. This paper is deficient in a few aspects: first, it looks at only those countries comprising the top 70% of arms imports. Second, it omits many political, technological and legal factors that impact arms imports and military expenditures. This paper looks into the impact of defense spending and arms imports on economic growth for twenty-five nations with the highest share of arms imports in recent times. It is a significant addition to the literature as it resolves the debate of whether or not the military expenditure is wasteful and whether arms imports significantly harm the nation's economic growth.The nexus between arms imports, military expenditures and economic growth of the top arms importers in the world: a pooled mean group approach
Shreesh Chary
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This paper explores whether data back the claim that imports of armaments are inherently bad for economic growth. Regardless of one's point of view, the production and trade of weaponry is a significant industry with serious economic implications that warrant investigation. The financial repercussions of military spending have been extensively studied, but the economic effects of arms importation remain unknown.

This study adopts a pooled mean group approach to investigate the nexus between arms imports, military expenditure and per capita GDP for a balanced panel of twenty-five of the top arms importers in the world from 2000 to 2021.

The authors find that arms imports and military spending negatively impact GDP per capita in the short run, but military spending is beneficial over the long run. The authors also used the Dumitrescu Hurlin Granger causality test, which revealed a unidirectional causation between per capita GDP and military expenditure, and a unidirectional causal relationship from military spending to arms imports.

This paper is deficient in a few aspects: first, it looks at only those countries comprising the top 70% of arms imports. Second, it omits many political, technological and legal factors that impact arms imports and military expenditures.

This paper looks into the impact of defense spending and arms imports on economic growth for twenty-five nations with the highest share of arms imports in recent times. It is a significant addition to the literature as it resolves the debate of whether or not the military expenditure is wasteful and whether arms imports significantly harm the nation's economic growth.

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The nexus between arms imports, military expenditures and economic growth of the top arms importers in the world: a pooled mean group approach10.1108/JES-05-2023-0265Journal of Economic Studies2023-08-31© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedShreesh CharyJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-08-3110.1108/JES-05-2023-0265https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0265/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
US unemployment rate: Federal Reserve versus private informationhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0273/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study evaluates the Federal Reserve (Fed) initial and final forecasts of the unemployment rate for 1983Q1-2018Q4. The Fed initial forecasts in a typical quarter are made in the first month (or immediately after), and the final forecasts are made in the third month of the quarter. The analysis also includes the private forecasts, which are made close to the end of the second month of the quarter. In evaluating the multi-period forecasts, the study tests for systematic bias, directional accuracy, symmetric loss, equal forecast accuracy, encompassing and orthogonality. For every test equation, it employs the Newey–West procedure in order to obtain the standard errors corrected for both heteroscedasticity and inherent serial correlation. Both Fed and private forecasts beat the naïve benchmark and predict directional change under symmetric loss. Fed final forecasts are more accurate than initial forecasts, meaning that predictive accuracy improves as more information becomes available. The private and Fed final forecasts contain distinct predictive information, but the latter produces significantly lower mean squared errors. The results are mixed when the study compares the private with the Fed initial forecasts. Additional results indicate that Fed (private) forecast errors are (are not) orthogonal to changes in consumer expectations about future unemployment. As such, consumer expectations can potentially help improve the accuracy of private forecasts. Unlike many other studies, this study focuses on the unemployment rate, since it is an important indicator of the social cost of business cycles, and thus its forecasts are of special interest to policymakers, politicians and social scientists. Accurate unemployment rate forecasts, in particular, are essential for policymakers to design an optimal macroeconomic policy.US unemployment rate: Federal Reserve versus private information
Hamid Baghestani, Bassam M. AbuAl-Foul
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study evaluates the Federal Reserve (Fed) initial and final forecasts of the unemployment rate for 1983Q1-2018Q4. The Fed initial forecasts in a typical quarter are made in the first month (or immediately after), and the final forecasts are made in the third month of the quarter. The analysis also includes the private forecasts, which are made close to the end of the second month of the quarter.

In evaluating the multi-period forecasts, the study tests for systematic bias, directional accuracy, symmetric loss, equal forecast accuracy, encompassing and orthogonality. For every test equation, it employs the Newey–West procedure in order to obtain the standard errors corrected for both heteroscedasticity and inherent serial correlation.

Both Fed and private forecasts beat the naïve benchmark and predict directional change under symmetric loss. Fed final forecasts are more accurate than initial forecasts, meaning that predictive accuracy improves as more information becomes available. The private and Fed final forecasts contain distinct predictive information, but the latter produces significantly lower mean squared errors. The results are mixed when the study compares the private with the Fed initial forecasts. Additional results indicate that Fed (private) forecast errors are (are not) orthogonal to changes in consumer expectations about future unemployment. As such, consumer expectations can potentially help improve the accuracy of private forecasts.

Unlike many other studies, this study focuses on the unemployment rate, since it is an important indicator of the social cost of business cycles, and thus its forecasts are of special interest to policymakers, politicians and social scientists. Accurate unemployment rate forecasts, in particular, are essential for policymakers to design an optimal macroeconomic policy.

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US unemployment rate: Federal Reserve versus private information10.1108/JES-05-2023-0273Journal of Economic Studies2023-11-22© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedHamid BaghestaniBassam M. AbuAl-FoulJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-11-2210.1108/JES-05-2023-0273https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-05-2023-0273/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Fast-food consumption and individual time preferences in Russia: evidence for the social policyhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-06-2023-0282/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis article aims to investigate the role of socioeconomic factors and individual time preferences in the demand for fast-food in Russia. An individual discount rate shows the ability of a person to postpone utility from consumption to future periods. An individual discount rate is measured through a hypothetical money experiment. The database is the special survey of the Levada analytical center conducted in 2017. Multivariate probit model enables the authors to consider the possible endogeneity of individual discount rate and reveal the relationship between socioeconomic factors and frequent fast-food consumption. Results show that a higher individual discount rate is related to frequent consumption of fast-food. At the same time, there are factors that provoke both a higher individual discount rate and the refusal of frequent consumption of fast-food. Findings advise the prioritization of measures highlighting the short-term benefits of healthy eating and the short-term costs of avoiding it. To the authors' knowledge, this article is the first one which presents comprehensive investigation of microeconomic factors of fast-food consumption in Russia including individual time preferences of consumers.Fast-food consumption and individual time preferences in Russia: evidence for the social policy
Tatiana Kossova, Maria Sheluntcova
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This article aims to investigate the role of socioeconomic factors and individual time preferences in the demand for fast-food in Russia. An individual discount rate shows the ability of a person to postpone utility from consumption to future periods.

An individual discount rate is measured through a hypothetical money experiment. The database is the special survey of the Levada analytical center conducted in 2017. Multivariate probit model enables the authors to consider the possible endogeneity of individual discount rate and reveal the relationship between socioeconomic factors and frequent fast-food consumption.

Results show that a higher individual discount rate is related to frequent consumption of fast-food. At the same time, there are factors that provoke both a higher individual discount rate and the refusal of frequent consumption of fast-food. Findings advise the prioritization of measures highlighting the short-term benefits of healthy eating and the short-term costs of avoiding it.

To the authors' knowledge, this article is the first one which presents comprehensive investigation of microeconomic factors of fast-food consumption in Russia including individual time preferences of consumers.

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Fast-food consumption and individual time preferences in Russia: evidence for the social policy10.1108/JES-06-2023-0282Journal of Economic Studies2023-11-15© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedTatiana KossovaMaria SheluntcovaJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-11-1510.1108/JES-06-2023-0282https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-06-2023-0282/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Trade potential in European Union manufacturinghttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-06-2023-0292/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study deals with changes in European Union's (EU's) trade potential in Machinery (HS 84–85) and Transportation (HS86-89) products. The study uses a Structural Gravity model, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation together with panel data for the years 2002–2018 and a two-step procedure that employs predicted values of bilateral trade to compare potential to actual trade. Results for Machinery products suggest a potential to expand trade with existing Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) in the American continent, and countries of the IGAD region in Africa. In Transportation, a high trade potential with RTAs is found in the Americas, Africa and the Middle East. Policy suggestions concentrate on opportunities for enhancing trade relations through trade liberalization and agreement proliferation. There are no studies to date, that examine “collective” measure of EU trade potential, that treats the EU as a single country. Changes in existing opportunities to expand trade, common for EU members, are of special interest for policy formulation, especially after the recent turmoil presented by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Greek Economic Crisis (GEC). Treating the EU as a single entity, is necessary for the formulation of an effective, common, EU trade policy. This study concentrates on the manufacturing sector to examine existing opportunities for the EU to expand trade, after the GFC and the GEC. This article deals with Machinery (HS 84 and 85) and Transportation (HS 86 through 89) products as they comprise a significant part of total EU exports, reaching 41% of total exports in 2016. Finally, this study offers a unique illustration of results through trade potential heat maps.Trade potential in European Union manufacturing
Lazaros Antonios Chatzilazarou, Dimitrios Dadakas
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study deals with changes in European Union's (EU's) trade potential in Machinery (HS 84–85) and Transportation (HS86-89) products.

The study uses a Structural Gravity model, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation together with panel data for the years 2002–2018 and a two-step procedure that employs predicted values of bilateral trade to compare potential to actual trade.

Results for Machinery products suggest a potential to expand trade with existing Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) in the American continent, and countries of the IGAD region in Africa. In Transportation, a high trade potential with RTAs is found in the Americas, Africa and the Middle East. Policy suggestions concentrate on opportunities for enhancing trade relations through trade liberalization and agreement proliferation.

There are no studies to date, that examine “collective” measure of EU trade potential, that treats the EU as a single country. Changes in existing opportunities to expand trade, common for EU members, are of special interest for policy formulation, especially after the recent turmoil presented by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Greek Economic Crisis (GEC). Treating the EU as a single entity, is necessary for the formulation of an effective, common, EU trade policy. This study concentrates on the manufacturing sector to examine existing opportunities for the EU to expand trade, after the GFC and the GEC. This article deals with Machinery (HS 84 and 85) and Transportation (HS 86 through 89) products as they comprise a significant part of total EU exports, reaching 41% of total exports in 2016. Finally, this study offers a unique illustration of results through trade potential heat maps.

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Trade potential in European Union manufacturing10.1108/JES-06-2023-0292Journal of Economic Studies2023-11-21© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedLazaros Antonios ChatzilazarouDimitrios DadakasJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-11-2110.1108/JES-06-2023-0292https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-06-2023-0292/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Factors determining migration intentions in Bangladesh: from land to factoryhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-06-2023-0293/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis article explores the migration intentions (MIs) embedded in population movements from rural to urban areas in Bangladesh. In this country, urban-centric development policies have made cities epicentres of commerce and industrialisation, offering significant employment and livelihood opportunities. This rapid transformation has generated several socio-psychological factors that are influencing the willingness of rural populations to migrate to cities for better jobs, lifestyles and services. The present study adopted the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) as a conceptual model to assess the behavioural and psychological factors underlying MIs. The results of the structural equation modelling (SEM) indicate that MIs are mainly influenced by subjective norms (SN) and, to a lesser extent, attitudes towards migration (ATM) and perceived behavioural control (PBC). The analysis drew on an original dataset built through interviews with migrants from rural areas employed in the ready-made garment (RMG) industry in four selective areas of the Metropolitan City of Chittagong.Factors determining migration intentions in Bangladesh: from land to factory
Muhammad Kazim Nur Sohad, Giuseppe Celi, Edgardo Sica
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This article explores the migration intentions (MIs) embedded in population movements from rural to urban areas in Bangladesh. In this country, urban-centric development policies have made cities epicentres of commerce and industrialisation, offering significant employment and livelihood opportunities. This rapid transformation has generated several socio-psychological factors that are influencing the willingness of rural populations to migrate to cities for better jobs, lifestyles and services.

The present study adopted the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) as a conceptual model to assess the behavioural and psychological factors underlying MIs.

The results of the structural equation modelling (SEM) indicate that MIs are mainly influenced by subjective norms (SN) and, to a lesser extent, attitudes towards migration (ATM) and perceived behavioural control (PBC).

The analysis drew on an original dataset built through interviews with migrants from rural areas employed in the ready-made garment (RMG) industry in four selective areas of the Metropolitan City of Chittagong.

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Factors determining migration intentions in Bangladesh: from land to factory10.1108/JES-06-2023-0293Journal of Economic Studies2023-10-30© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedMuhammad Kazim Nur SohadGiuseppe CeliEdgardo SicaJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-10-3010.1108/JES-06-2023-0293https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-06-2023-0293/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
The human consequences of economic sanctionshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-06-2023-0299/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe use of economic sanctions has grown dramatically in recent decades. Nevertheless, many arguments are presented in the public policy space regarding their effects on target populations. The author presents the first systematic analysis of the effects of sanctions on living conditions in target countries. This paper provides a comprehensive survey and assessment of the literature on the effects of economic sanctions on living standards in target countries. The author identifies 31 studies that apply quantitative econometric or calibration methods to cross-country and national data to assess the impact of economic sanctions on indicators of human and economic development. The author provides in-depth discussions of three sanctions episodes—Iran, Afghanistan and Venezuela—that illustrate the channels through which sanctions affect living conditions in target countries. Of the 31 studies, 30 find that sanctions have negative effects on outcomes ranging from per capita income to poverty, inequality, mortality and human rights. The author provides new results showing that 54 countries—27% of all countries and 29% of the world economy— are sanctioned today, up from only 4% of countries in the 1960s. In the three cases discussed, sanctions that restricted the access of governments to foreign exchange limited the ability of states to provide essential public goods and services and generated substantial negative spillovers on private sector and nongovernmental actors. This is the first literature survey that systematically assesses the quantitative evidence on the effect of sanctions on living conditions in target countries.The human consequences of economic sanctions
Francisco Rodríguez
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The use of economic sanctions has grown dramatically in recent decades. Nevertheless, many arguments are presented in the public policy space regarding their effects on target populations. The author presents the first systematic analysis of the effects of sanctions on living conditions in target countries.

This paper provides a comprehensive survey and assessment of the literature on the effects of economic sanctions on living standards in target countries. The author identifies 31 studies that apply quantitative econometric or calibration methods to cross-country and national data to assess the impact of economic sanctions on indicators of human and economic development. The author provides in-depth discussions of three sanctions episodes—Iran, Afghanistan and Venezuela—that illustrate the channels through which sanctions affect living conditions in target countries.

Of the 31 studies, 30 find that sanctions have negative effects on outcomes ranging from per capita income to poverty, inequality, mortality and human rights. The author provides new results showing that 54 countries—27% of all countries and 29% of the world economy— are sanctioned today, up from only 4% of countries in the 1960s. In the three cases discussed, sanctions that restricted the access of governments to foreign exchange limited the ability of states to provide essential public goods and services and generated substantial negative spillovers on private sector and nongovernmental actors.

This is the first literature survey that systematically assesses the quantitative evidence on the effect of sanctions on living conditions in target countries.

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The human consequences of economic sanctions10.1108/JES-06-2023-0299Journal of Economic Studies2023-11-07© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedFrancisco RodríguezJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-11-0710.1108/JES-06-2023-0299https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-06-2023-0299/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Abortion stigma, government regulation and religiosity: findings from the case of Iranhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-06-2023-0310/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestExperiencing stigma after abortion may decelerate the accumulation of human capital. Despite the importance of studying the relationship between religiosity and abortion stigma, the topic is understudied, especially in Islamic contexts. Abortion was legalized in Iran in 2005. Under the new law, far more cases are allowed for abortion. This change provided an opportunity to explore the interplay of abortion stigma, legalization and religiosity in Iran. Using regression analysis based on 291 completed questionnaires from two cities in Iran, this study analyzes the relation between abortion stigma level and religiosity in Iran, controlling for contextual and individual variables. The time trend is also identified. The authors use different manifestations of abortion stigma as dependent variables. The authors found that abortion stigma and its two manifestations decreased after the new law, suggesting that its legalization might have caused abortion stigma to decrease gradually. Another finding of this study is that the correlations between abortion stigma (internalized stigma) and individual religiosity level are meaningful and positive; religious people feel higher levels of abortion stigma. The study supports the idea that effective health regulations (in the specific case of abortion) would result in less cost/risk of social issues like stigma. Policymakers in religious societies must pay more attention to the specific case of abortion stigma since it is very important for the mental health of women who think of abortion and/or select it.Abortion stigma, government regulation and religiosity: findings from the case of Iran
Farzin Rasoulyan, Seyed Reza Mirnezami, Arash Khalili Nasr, Bahar Morshed-Behbahani
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

Experiencing stigma after abortion may decelerate the accumulation of human capital. Despite the importance of studying the relationship between religiosity and abortion stigma, the topic is understudied, especially in Islamic contexts. Abortion was legalized in Iran in 2005. Under the new law, far more cases are allowed for abortion. This change provided an opportunity to explore the interplay of abortion stigma, legalization and religiosity in Iran.

Using regression analysis based on 291 completed questionnaires from two cities in Iran, this study analyzes the relation between abortion stigma level and religiosity in Iran, controlling for contextual and individual variables. The time trend is also identified. The authors use different manifestations of abortion stigma as dependent variables.

The authors found that abortion stigma and its two manifestations decreased after the new law, suggesting that its legalization might have caused abortion stigma to decrease gradually. Another finding of this study is that the correlations between abortion stigma (internalized stigma) and individual religiosity level are meaningful and positive; religious people feel higher levels of abortion stigma.

The study supports the idea that effective health regulations (in the specific case of abortion) would result in less cost/risk of social issues like stigma. Policymakers in religious societies must pay more attention to the specific case of abortion stigma since it is very important for the mental health of women who think of abortion and/or select it.

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Abortion stigma, government regulation and religiosity: findings from the case of Iran10.1108/JES-06-2023-0310Journal of Economic Studies2023-11-10© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedFarzin RasoulyanSeyed Reza MirnezamiArash Khalili NasrBahar Morshed-BehbahaniJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-11-1010.1108/JES-06-2023-0310https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-06-2023-0310/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
The impact of Credit Suisse takeover on Indian banking and financial services sector stocks: an event study analysishttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-06-2023-0316/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe present study aims to comprehensively examine the impact of the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) takeover of Credit Suisse on the banking and financial services sector in the Indian stock market. To fully comprehend the impact of the event, the study separately investigates the response of private sector banks, public sector banks, overall banking companies and financial services companies to the takeover of the second-largest financial institution in Switzerland. The study employs event study methodology, using the market model, to analyze the event's impact on Indian banking and financial services sector stocks. The data consists of daily closing prices of companies included in the Nifty Private Bank Index, Nifty PSU Bank Index, Nifty Bank Index and Nifty Financial Services Index from the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Furthermore, cross-sectional regression analysis has been conducted to explore the factors that drive abnormal returns. The empirical findings of the study suggest the event had a heterogeneous impact on the stock prices of Indian banks and financial services companies. While public sector banks experienced a significant negative impact on select days within the event window, the overall Indian banking sector and financial services companies also witnessed notable declines. In contrast, Indian private sector banks were relatively resilient, exhibiting minimal effects. However, the cumulative effect is found to be insignificant for all four categories across different event windows. The study also observed that the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) were significantly influenced by certain variables during different event windows. To the best of the authors' knowledge, the present study is the earliest attempt that investigates the impact of the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse on the Indian banking and financial services sector using event study methodology and cross-sectional regression model.The impact of Credit Suisse takeover on Indian banking and financial services sector stocks: an event study analysis
Priyanka Goyal, Pooja Soni
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The present study aims to comprehensively examine the impact of the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) takeover of Credit Suisse on the banking and financial services sector in the Indian stock market. To fully comprehend the impact of the event, the study separately investigates the response of private sector banks, public sector banks, overall banking companies and financial services companies to the takeover of the second-largest financial institution in Switzerland.

The study employs event study methodology, using the market model, to analyze the event's impact on Indian banking and financial services sector stocks. The data consists of daily closing prices of companies included in the Nifty Private Bank Index, Nifty PSU Bank Index, Nifty Bank Index and Nifty Financial Services Index from the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Furthermore, cross-sectional regression analysis has been conducted to explore the factors that drive abnormal returns.

The empirical findings of the study suggest the event had a heterogeneous impact on the stock prices of Indian banks and financial services companies. While public sector banks experienced a significant negative impact on select days within the event window, the overall Indian banking sector and financial services companies also witnessed notable declines. In contrast, Indian private sector banks were relatively resilient, exhibiting minimal effects. However, the cumulative effect is found to be insignificant for all four categories across different event windows. The study also observed that the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) were significantly influenced by certain variables during different event windows.

To the best of the authors' knowledge, the present study is the earliest attempt that investigates the impact of the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse on the Indian banking and financial services sector using event study methodology and cross-sectional regression model.

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The impact of Credit Suisse takeover on Indian banking and financial services sector stocks: an event study analysis10.1108/JES-06-2023-0316Journal of Economic Studies2023-09-26© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedPriyanka GoyalPooja SoniJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-09-2610.1108/JES-06-2023-0316https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-06-2023-0316/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Economic policy uncertainty and the Greek economic crisishttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-06-2023-0327/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe authors construct an index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for Greece using textual analysis and analyze its role in the 10-year Greek economic crisis. To identify the causal relationship between various measures of economic activity and EPU in Greece, the authors use a sophisticated “shock-based” structural vector autoregressive identification scheme. Additionally, the authors use two additional models to ensure the robustness of the results. EPU is negatively associated with domestic economic activity and economic sentiment, and positively with bond credit spreads. EPU is also estimated to have prolonged the crisis even in periods when macroeconomic imbalances were cured. The results are robust across various model specifications and different proxies of economic activity. Brunnermeier (2017) observed that uncertainty may be central to understanding the evolution of the Greek crisis. Yet little attention has been paid to policy uncertainty in the existing long and growing literature on the Greek crisis. The authors attempt to fill this gap.Economic policy uncertainty and the Greek economic crisis
Gikas Hardouvelis, Georgios Karalas, Dimitrios Karanastasis, Panagiotis Samartzis
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The authors construct an index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for Greece using textual analysis and analyze its role in the 10-year Greek economic crisis.

To identify the causal relationship between various measures of economic activity and EPU in Greece, the authors use a sophisticated “shock-based” structural vector autoregressive identification scheme. Additionally, the authors use two additional models to ensure the robustness of the results.

EPU is negatively associated with domestic economic activity and economic sentiment, and positively with bond credit spreads. EPU is also estimated to have prolonged the crisis even in periods when macroeconomic imbalances were cured. The results are robust across various model specifications and different proxies of economic activity.

Brunnermeier (2017) observed that uncertainty may be central to understanding the evolution of the Greek crisis. Yet little attention has been paid to policy uncertainty in the existing long and growing literature on the Greek crisis. The authors attempt to fill this gap.

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Economic policy uncertainty and the Greek economic crisis10.1108/JES-06-2023-0327Journal of Economic Studies2023-11-27© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedGikas HardouvelisGeorgios KaralasDimitrios KaranastasisPanagiotis SamartzisJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-11-2710.1108/JES-06-2023-0327https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-06-2023-0327/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Public debt forecasts and machine learning: the Italian casehttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2023-0337/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestPublic debt forecasts represent a key policy issue. Many methodologies have been employed to predict debt sustainability, including dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, the stock flow consistent method, the structural vector autoregressive model and, more recently, the neuro-fuzzy method. Despite their widespread application in the empirical literature, all of these approaches exhibit shortcomings that limit their utility. The present research adopts a different approach to public debt forecasts, that is, the random forest, an ensemble of machine learning. Using quarterly observations over the period 2000–2021, the present research tests the reliability of the random forest technique for forecasting the Italian public debt. The results show the large predictive power of this method to forecast debt-to-GDP fluctuations, with no need to model the underlying structure of the economy. Compared to other methodologies, the random forest method has a predictive capacity that is granted by the algorithm itself. The use of repeated learning, training and validation stages provides well-defined parameters that are not conditional to strong theoretical restrictions This allows to overcome the shortcomings arising from the traditional techniques which are generally adopted in the empirical literature to forecast public debt.Public debt forecasts and machine learning: the Italian case
Edgardo Sica, Hazar Altınbaş, Gaetano Gabriele Marini
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

Public debt forecasts represent a key policy issue. Many methodologies have been employed to predict debt sustainability, including dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, the stock flow consistent method, the structural vector autoregressive model and, more recently, the neuro-fuzzy method. Despite their widespread application in the empirical literature, all of these approaches exhibit shortcomings that limit their utility. The present research adopts a different approach to public debt forecasts, that is, the random forest, an ensemble of machine learning.

Using quarterly observations over the period 2000–2021, the present research tests the reliability of the random forest technique for forecasting the Italian public debt.

The results show the large predictive power of this method to forecast debt-to-GDP fluctuations, with no need to model the underlying structure of the economy.

Compared to other methodologies, the random forest method has a predictive capacity that is granted by the algorithm itself. The use of repeated learning, training and validation stages provides well-defined parameters that are not conditional to strong theoretical restrictions This allows to overcome the shortcomings arising from the traditional techniques which are generally adopted in the empirical literature to forecast public debt.

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Public debt forecasts and machine learning: the Italian case10.1108/JES-07-2023-0337Journal of Economic Studies2023-12-21© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedEdgardo SicaHazar AltınbaşGaetano Gabriele MariniJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-12-2110.1108/JES-07-2023-0337https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2023-0337/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Investigating the financial efficiencies and productivities of the banking sectorhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2023-0338/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe banking industry, which is one of the most significant industries when taking into account both deposit sizes and employment statistics in Turkey, is one of the country's primary economic drivers. In this regard, it is highly important to evaluate banks as it is necessary to present to what extent they use their resources efficiently. The main purpose of the study is to analyze the efficiencies of Turkish banks by the two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) and Malmquist productivity index (MPI). The authors aim to analyze both the efficiency and productivity of Turkish banks by two-stage DEA and the MPI, which enable decomposing into sub-sections of production processes. Hence, more detailed insight into the Turkish banking system can be presented through two-stage efficiency and production approaches. DEA results indicate that two out of three state-owned banks achieved resource efficiency while none of the investigated banks performed profit efficiency throughout the investigated period. Besides, average resource efficiency is found higher than average profit efficiency in Turkish banks. MPI results reveal that both technological and technical improvement prospects exist for Turkish banks. The original contribution of this paper is to employ two-stage DEA and the MPI, which reflect both the static and dynamic performance of the Turkish banking sector. In this regard, this study aims to be a pioneer by both reflecting the static and dynamic performance analysis of Turkish banks.Investigating the financial efficiencies and productivities of the banking sector
Fazıl Gökgöz, Engin Yalçın, Noor Ayoob Salahaldeen
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The banking industry, which is one of the most significant industries when taking into account both deposit sizes and employment statistics in Turkey, is one of the country's primary economic drivers. In this regard, it is highly important to evaluate banks as it is necessary to present to what extent they use their resources efficiently. The main purpose of the study is to analyze the efficiencies of Turkish banks by the two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) and Malmquist productivity index (MPI).

The authors aim to analyze both the efficiency and productivity of Turkish banks by two-stage DEA and the MPI, which enable decomposing into sub-sections of production processes. Hence, more detailed insight into the Turkish banking system can be presented through two-stage efficiency and production approaches.

DEA results indicate that two out of three state-owned banks achieved resource efficiency while none of the investigated banks performed profit efficiency throughout the investigated period. Besides, average resource efficiency is found higher than average profit efficiency in Turkish banks. MPI results reveal that both technological and technical improvement prospects exist for Turkish banks.

The original contribution of this paper is to employ two-stage DEA and the MPI, which reflect both the static and dynamic performance of the Turkish banking sector. In this regard, this study aims to be a pioneer by both reflecting the static and dynamic performance analysis of Turkish banks.

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Investigating the financial efficiencies and productivities of the banking sector10.1108/JES-07-2023-0338Journal of Economic Studies2023-11-24© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedFazıl GökgözEngin YalçınNoor Ayoob SalahaldeenJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-11-2410.1108/JES-07-2023-0338https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2023-0338/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Equity issuance, share buy-back and growth in a Kaldor-Kalecki modelhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2023-0353/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe aim of this article is to assess the macroeconomic consequences of some specific aspects of financialization (i.e. share buy-back) using a hybrid post-Keynesian model of growth and distribution based on Kaldorian and Kaleckian characteristics. The study follows a post-Keynesian approach and deals with financialization issues by implementing several numerical simulations. The numerical simulations reveal the negative real impacts of massive share repurchases on the rate of accumulation because they immediately siphon off revenues directly intended for investment projects. Moreover, the negative effect of share buy-backs is reinforced especially when firms' investment decisions are more sensitive to a variation in retained earnings. Next, this macro-model also reproduces several well-known figures of the Kaleckian tradition and the paradox of costs. The present article can be considered as a starting point for further theoretical extensions and requires empirical validation. The Kaldor-Kalecki macro-model could be useful for policymakers who are interested in containing some of the negative excesses of financialization.Equity issuance, share buy-back and growth in a Kaldor-Kalecki model
Sébastien Charles
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The aim of this article is to assess the macroeconomic consequences of some specific aspects of financialization (i.e. share buy-back) using a hybrid post-Keynesian model of growth and distribution based on Kaldorian and Kaleckian characteristics.

The study follows a post-Keynesian approach and deals with financialization issues by implementing several numerical simulations.

The numerical simulations reveal the negative real impacts of massive share repurchases on the rate of accumulation because they immediately siphon off revenues directly intended for investment projects. Moreover, the negative effect of share buy-backs is reinforced especially when firms' investment decisions are more sensitive to a variation in retained earnings. Next, this macro-model also reproduces several well-known figures of the Kaleckian tradition and the paradox of costs.

The present article can be considered as a starting point for further theoretical extensions and requires empirical validation.

The Kaldor-Kalecki macro-model could be useful for policymakers who are interested in containing some of the negative excesses of financialization.

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Equity issuance, share buy-back and growth in a Kaldor-Kalecki model10.1108/JES-07-2023-0353Journal of Economic Studies2024-01-09© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedSébastien CharlesJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-01-0910.1108/JES-07-2023-0353https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2023-0353/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Factors determining default in P2P lendinghttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2023-0376/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe research documented in this paper aims to examine multiple factors related to borrowers' default in peer-to-peer (P2P) lending in the USA. This study is motivated by the hypothesis that both P2P loan characteristics and macroeconomic variables have influence on loan performance. The authors define a set of loan characteristics, borrower characteristics and macroeconomic variables that are significant in determining the probability of default and should be taken into consideration when assessing credit risk. The research question in this study is to find the significant explanatory variables that are essential in determining the probability of default for LendingClub loans. The empirical study is based on a total number of 1,863,491 loan records issued through LendingClub from 2007 to 2020Q3 and a logistic regression model is developed to predict loan defaults. The results, in line with prior research, show that a number of borrower and contractual loan characteristics predict loan defaults. The innovation of this study is the introduction of specific macroeconomic indicators. The study indicates that macroeconomic variables assessed alongside loan data can significantly improve the forecasting performance of default model. The general finding demonstrates that higher percentage change in House Price Index, Consumer Sentiment Index and S&P500 Index is associated with a lower probability of delinquency. The empirical results also exhibit significant positive effect of unemployment rate and GDP growth rate on P2P loan default rates. The results have important implications for investors for whom it is of great importance to know the determinants of borrowers' creditworthiness and loan performance when estimating the investment in a certain P2P loan. In addition, the forecasting performance of the model could be applied by authorities in order to deal with the credit risk in P2P lending and to prevent the effects of increasing defaults on the economy. This paper fulfills an identified need to shed light on the association between specific macroeconomic indicators and the default risk from P2P lending within an economy, while the majority of the existing literature investigate loan and borrower information to evaluate credit risk of P2P loans and predict the likelihood of default.Factors determining default in P2P lending
Evangelia Avgeri, Maria Psillaki
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The research documented in this paper aims to examine multiple factors related to borrowers' default in peer-to-peer (P2P) lending in the USA. This study is motivated by the hypothesis that both P2P loan characteristics and macroeconomic variables have influence on loan performance. The authors define a set of loan characteristics, borrower characteristics and macroeconomic variables that are significant in determining the probability of default and should be taken into consideration when assessing credit risk.

The research question in this study is to find the significant explanatory variables that are essential in determining the probability of default for LendingClub loans. The empirical study is based on a total number of 1,863,491 loan records issued through LendingClub from 2007 to 2020Q3 and a logistic regression model is developed to predict loan defaults.

The results, in line with prior research, show that a number of borrower and contractual loan characteristics predict loan defaults. The innovation of this study is the introduction of specific macroeconomic indicators. The study indicates that macroeconomic variables assessed alongside loan data can significantly improve the forecasting performance of default model. The general finding demonstrates that higher percentage change in House Price Index, Consumer Sentiment Index and S&P500 Index is associated with a lower probability of delinquency. The empirical results also exhibit significant positive effect of unemployment rate and GDP growth rate on P2P loan default rates.

The results have important implications for investors for whom it is of great importance to know the determinants of borrowers' creditworthiness and loan performance when estimating the investment in a certain P2P loan. In addition, the forecasting performance of the model could be applied by authorities in order to deal with the credit risk in P2P lending and to prevent the effects of increasing defaults on the economy.

This paper fulfills an identified need to shed light on the association between specific macroeconomic indicators and the default risk from P2P lending within an economy, while the majority of the existing literature investigate loan and borrower information to evaluate credit risk of P2P loans and predict the likelihood of default.

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Factors determining default in P2P lending10.1108/JES-07-2023-0376Journal of Economic Studies2023-09-05© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedEvangelia AvgeriMaria PsillakiJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-09-0510.1108/JES-07-2023-0376https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2023-0376/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
US efficient factors in a Bayesian model scan frameworkhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2023-0379/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe author examines the impact these efficient factors have on factor model comparison tests in US returns using the Bayesian model scan approach of Chib et al. (2020), and Chib et al.(2022). Ehsani and Linnainmaa (2022) show that time-series efficient investment factors in US stock returns span and earn 40% higher Sharpe ratios than the original factors. The author shows that the optimal asset pricing model is an eight-factor model which contains efficient versions of the market factor, value factor (HML) and long-horizon behavioral factor (FIN). The findings show that efficient factors enhance the performance of US factor model performance. The top performing asset pricing model does not change in recent data. The author is the only one to examine if the efficient factors developed by Ehsani and Linnainmaa (2022) have an impact on model comparison tests in US stock returns.US efficient factors in a Bayesian model scan framework
Michael O'Connell
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The author examines the impact these efficient factors have on factor model comparison tests in US returns using the Bayesian model scan approach of Chib et al. (2020), and Chib et al.(2022).

Ehsani and Linnainmaa (2022) show that time-series efficient investment factors in US stock returns span and earn 40% higher Sharpe ratios than the original factors.

The author shows that the optimal asset pricing model is an eight-factor model which contains efficient versions of the market factor, value factor (HML) and long-horizon behavioral factor (FIN). The findings show that efficient factors enhance the performance of US factor model performance. The top performing asset pricing model does not change in recent data.

The author is the only one to examine if the efficient factors developed by Ehsani and Linnainmaa (2022) have an impact on model comparison tests in US stock returns.

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US efficient factors in a Bayesian model scan framework10.1108/JES-07-2023-0379Journal of Economic Studies2024-01-15© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedMichael O'ConnellJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-01-1510.1108/JES-07-2023-0379https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2023-0379/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
The interplay between economic policy uncertainty and corporate bond yield in emerging Asian marketshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2023-0385/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestTo investigate the role of domestic and foreign economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in driving the corporate bond yields in emerging markets. The study utilizes monthly data from January 2008 to June 2023 from the selected emerging economies. The data analysis is conducted using univariate, bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques. The study includes bond market liquidity and global volatility (VIX) as control variables. Domestic EPU has a significant role in driving corporate bond yields in these markets. The study finds weak evidence to support the role of the USA EPU in influencing corporate bond yields in emerging economies. Domestic EPU holds more weight and influence than the EPU originating from the United States of America. The findings provide useful insights to policymakers about the potential impact of policy uncertainty on corporate bond yields and enable them to make informed decisions regarding economic policies that maintains financial stability. Understanding the relationship between EPU and corporate bond yields enables investors to optimize their investment decisions in emerging market economies, opens the scope for further research on the interaction between EPU and volatility and other attributes of fixed income markets. Focuses specifically on the emerging market economies in Asia, providing an in-depth analysis of the dynamics and challenges faced by these countries, Explores the influence of both domestic and the USA EPU on corporate bond yields in emerging markets, offering valuable insights into the transmission channels and impact of EPU from various sources.The interplay between economic policy uncertainty and corporate bond yield in emerging Asian markets
Mohit Kumar, P. Krishna Prasanna
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

To investigate the role of domestic and foreign economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in driving the corporate bond yields in emerging markets.

The study utilizes monthly data from January 2008 to June 2023 from the selected emerging economies. The data analysis is conducted using univariate, bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques. The study includes bond market liquidity and global volatility (VIX) as control variables.

Domestic EPU has a significant role in driving corporate bond yields in these markets. The study finds weak evidence to support the role of the USA EPU in influencing corporate bond yields in emerging economies. Domestic EPU holds more weight and influence than the EPU originating from the United States of America.

The findings provide useful insights to policymakers about the potential impact of policy uncertainty on corporate bond yields and enable them to make informed decisions regarding economic policies that maintains financial stability. Understanding the relationship between EPU and corporate bond yields enables investors to optimize their investment decisions in emerging market economies, opens the scope for further research on the interaction between EPU and volatility and other attributes of fixed income markets.

Focuses specifically on the emerging market economies in Asia, providing an in-depth analysis of the dynamics and challenges faced by these countries, Explores the influence of both domestic and the USA EPU on corporate bond yields in emerging markets, offering valuable insights into the transmission channels and impact of EPU from various sources.

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The interplay between economic policy uncertainty and corporate bond yield in emerging Asian markets10.1108/JES-07-2023-0385Journal of Economic Studies2024-01-04© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedMohit KumarP. Krishna PrasannaJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-01-0410.1108/JES-07-2023-0385https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2023-0385/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Mayday! Mayday! The airlines stock returns are failing. Analysis of the impact of Russia–Ukraine warhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0390/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis paper investigates the short-term market impact of the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine (February 24, 2022) on a set of airline stocks listed. This study uses an event study methodology, cross-section analyses and interaction effects to study the effect of the war on airline stock prices and firm-specific characteristics that explain the cumulative abnormal return. The authors observe a negative and statistically significant stock price reaction at and around the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, for 74 listed airlines. These results are consistent with investment portfolio rebalancing and asset pricing perspective. Moreover, this study's results show a higher negative stock market reaction for airlines based in Europe. Empirical evidence suggests the existence of a “proximity penalty” for European companies. Finally, this study's results provide insights into which airline-specific characteristics emerge as value drivers. Larger, well-capitalized (high liquidity and low debt) and profitable airlines firms with less institutional ownership have superior stock market returns and show more able to handle with the losses resulting from the war. This paper fills a gap in the literature about the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the airline industry.Mayday! Mayday! The airlines stock returns are failing. Analysis of the impact of Russia–Ukraine war
António Miguel Martins, Susana Cró
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This paper investigates the short-term market impact of the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine (February 24, 2022) on a set of airline stocks listed.

This study uses an event study methodology, cross-section analyses and interaction effects to study the effect of the war on airline stock prices and firm-specific characteristics that explain the cumulative abnormal return.

The authors observe a negative and statistically significant stock price reaction at and around the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, for 74 listed airlines. These results are consistent with investment portfolio rebalancing and asset pricing perspective. Moreover, this study's results show a higher negative stock market reaction for airlines based in Europe. Empirical evidence suggests the existence of a “proximity penalty” for European companies. Finally, this study's results provide insights into which airline-specific characteristics emerge as value drivers. Larger, well-capitalized (high liquidity and low debt) and profitable airlines firms with less institutional ownership have superior stock market returns and show more able to handle with the losses resulting from the war.

This paper fills a gap in the literature about the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the airline industry.

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Mayday! Mayday! The airlines stock returns are failing. Analysis of the impact of Russia–Ukraine war10.1108/JES-08-2023-0390Journal of Economic Studies2023-11-21© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedAntónio Miguel MartinsSusana CróJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-11-2110.1108/JES-08-2023-0390https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0390/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Mortgage market, wages and homeownershiphttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0401/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study deals with the main issues concerning the interplay between homeownership and labour market outcomes, namely (1) the relation between homeownership and labour market outcomes, at both the individual level and the aggregate level, and (2) the relation between homeownership and human capital. This paper is both theoretical and empirical. A search and matching model of the labour market is developed to explain the strong relation between mortgage markets and wages. A regional panel analysis in Italy is used to verify the interplay between homeownership and wages. Homeownership is not, by itself, a condition for receiving higher wages, but rather higher wages increase the probability to become a homeowner, since they positively affect the probability of acquiring a mortgage from the bank. Eventually, wages cause homeownership, but the reverse may not be true. The paper focuses on the labour market, while the housing market model is restricted to the mortgage market. The positive effect of homeownership on wages is hard to theoretically formalise and is not empirically proven. Before investigating a (potential) bidirectional relationship between homeownership and labour market outcomes, therefore, the related literature should assume a new theoretical link between homeowners and wages. The result that “homeownership is not, by itself, a condition for receiving higher wages” has positive implications for human and social development. If homeownership could lead to better labour market outcomes, indeed, socio-economic inequalities would increase in the society, because homeownership would be the starting point of a “lucky” circle that increases the well-being of people who are already wealthy. First, this study clearly explains why the microeconomic result that homeowners are more likely to be employed than tenants is consistent – at the aggregate level – with a negative relation between homeownership and better labour market outcomes. Second, the related literature has largely ignored the social implications of the topic. A potential bidirectional relation between homeownership and (better) labour market outcomes, indeed, could imply an increase in the well-being of people who are already wealthy.Mortgage market, wages and homeownership
Gaetano Lisi
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study deals with the main issues concerning the interplay between homeownership and labour market outcomes, namely (1) the relation between homeownership and labour market outcomes, at both the individual level and the aggregate level, and (2) the relation between homeownership and human capital.

This paper is both theoretical and empirical. A search and matching model of the labour market is developed to explain the strong relation between mortgage markets and wages. A regional panel analysis in Italy is used to verify the interplay between homeownership and wages.

Homeownership is not, by itself, a condition for receiving higher wages, but rather higher wages increase the probability to become a homeowner, since they positively affect the probability of acquiring a mortgage from the bank. Eventually, wages cause homeownership, but the reverse may not be true.

The paper focuses on the labour market, while the housing market model is restricted to the mortgage market.

The positive effect of homeownership on wages is hard to theoretically formalise and is not empirically proven. Before investigating a (potential) bidirectional relationship between homeownership and labour market outcomes, therefore, the related literature should assume a new theoretical link between homeowners and wages.

The result that “homeownership is not, by itself, a condition for receiving higher wages” has positive implications for human and social development. If homeownership could lead to better labour market outcomes, indeed, socio-economic inequalities would increase in the society, because homeownership would be the starting point of a “lucky” circle that increases the well-being of people who are already wealthy.

First, this study clearly explains why the microeconomic result that homeowners are more likely to be employed than tenants is consistent – at the aggregate level – with a negative relation between homeownership and better labour market outcomes. Second, the related literature has largely ignored the social implications of the topic. A potential bidirectional relation between homeownership and (better) labour market outcomes, indeed, could imply an increase in the well-being of people who are already wealthy.

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Mortgage market, wages and homeownership10.1108/JES-08-2023-0401Journal of Economic Studies2023-10-20© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedGaetano LisiJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-10-2010.1108/JES-08-2023-0401https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0401/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
The determinants of credit restrictions and their impact on micro firms: the case of Colombiahttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0403/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis article analyzes the determinants of credit constraints and their effects on the productivity of micro-firms in Colombia. An Endogenous Switching Regression Model (ESRM) is estimated to analyze credit constraint impact on economic performance. The results show that owner characteristics such as age and gender decrease the likelihood of being constrained. Firms' characteristics, such as legal status, the formality of the employees, commercial property and savings, are important for reducing credit constraints. This article discusses how formal credit restrictions harm the economic performance of Colombia's micro-firms. The results show that the productivity of the micro firms in Colombia could increase, on average, by U$ 825 USD when all types of restrictions are eliminated.The determinants of credit restrictions and their impact on micro firms: the case of Colombia
Jhon James Mora, Andres David Espada Castro
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This article analyzes the determinants of credit constraints and their effects on the productivity of micro-firms in Colombia.

An Endogenous Switching Regression Model (ESRM) is estimated to analyze credit constraint impact on economic performance.

The results show that owner characteristics such as age and gender decrease the likelihood of being constrained. Firms' characteristics, such as legal status, the formality of the employees, commercial property and savings, are important for reducing credit constraints.

This article discusses how formal credit restrictions harm the economic performance of Colombia's micro-firms. The results show that the productivity of the micro firms in Colombia could increase, on average, by U$ 825 USD when all types of restrictions are eliminated.

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The determinants of credit restrictions and their impact on micro firms: the case of Colombia10.1108/JES-08-2023-0403Journal of Economic Studies2023-12-04© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedJhon James MoraAndres David Espada CastroJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-12-0410.1108/JES-08-2023-0403https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0403/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Unraveling the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on foreign direct investment and its determinants: empirical insights from SAARC countrieshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0420/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis paper aims to unravel the impact of post-pandemic COVID-19 on foreign direct investment (FDI) and its determinants in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Countries. The study utilized four macroeconomic variables includes growth domestic product growth rate (GDPG), inflation rate (IR), exchange rate (ER), and unemployment rate (UR) to assess their impact on post-pandemic FDI, along with two variables control of corruption (CC) and political stability (PS) to measure the influence of good governance. Random effects, fixed effects, cluster random effects, cluster fixed effects and generalized method of moments (GMM) models were applied to a balanced panel dataset comprising eight SAARC countries over the period 2010–2021. To identify the random trend component in each variable, three renowned unit root tests (Levin, Lin and Chu LLC, Im-Pesaran-Shin IPS and Augmented Dickey-Fuller ADF) were used, and co-integration associations between variables were verified through the Pedroni and Kao approaches. Data analysis was performed using STATA 17 software. The major findings revealed that the variables have an order of integration at the first difference I (1). Nonetheless, this situation suggests the possibility of a long-term link between the series. And the main results of the findings show that the coefficients of GDPG, CC and PS are positive and significant in the long run, showing that these variables boosted FDI inflows in the SAARC region as they are significantly positively linked to FDI inflows. Similarly, the coefficients of UR, IR, ER and COVID-19 are negative and significant. By identifying the specific impacts of the post-pandemic FDI and its determinants, governments and policymakers can formulate targeted policies and measures to mitigate the adverse effects and enhance investment attractiveness. Additionally, investors can gain a deeper understanding of the risk factors and adapt their strategies accordingly, ensuring resilience and sustainable growth. Finally, this paper adds value to the literature on the post-pandemic impact on FDI inflows in the SAARC region. This paper is the first attempt to trace the impact of COVID-19 on Foreign Direct Investment and its determinants in the SAARC Countries. Most of the previous studies were analytical in nature and, if empirical, excluded some countries due to the unviability of the data set. This study includes all the SAARC member countries, and all variables' data are completely available. There is still a lack of empirical studies related to the SAARC region; this study attempts to fill the gap.Unraveling the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on foreign direct investment and its determinants: empirical insights from SAARC countries
Rizwan Firdos, Mohammad Subhan, Babu Bakhsh Mansuri, Majed Alharthi
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This paper aims to unravel the impact of post-pandemic COVID-19 on foreign direct investment (FDI) and its determinants in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Countries.

The study utilized four macroeconomic variables includes growth domestic product growth rate (GDPG), inflation rate (IR), exchange rate (ER), and unemployment rate (UR) to assess their impact on post-pandemic FDI, along with two variables control of corruption (CC) and political stability (PS) to measure the influence of good governance. Random effects, fixed effects, cluster random effects, cluster fixed effects and generalized method of moments (GMM) models were applied to a balanced panel dataset comprising eight SAARC countries over the period 2010–2021. To identify the random trend component in each variable, three renowned unit root tests (Levin, Lin and Chu LLC, Im-Pesaran-Shin IPS and Augmented Dickey-Fuller ADF) were used, and co-integration associations between variables were verified through the Pedroni and Kao approaches. Data analysis was performed using STATA 17 software.

The major findings revealed that the variables have an order of integration at the first difference I (1). Nonetheless, this situation suggests the possibility of a long-term link between the series. And the main results of the findings show that the coefficients of GDPG, CC and PS are positive and significant in the long run, showing that these variables boosted FDI inflows in the SAARC region as they are significantly positively linked to FDI inflows. Similarly, the coefficients of UR, IR, ER and COVID-19 are negative and significant.

By identifying the specific impacts of the post-pandemic FDI and its determinants, governments and policymakers can formulate targeted policies and measures to mitigate the adverse effects and enhance investment attractiveness. Additionally, investors can gain a deeper understanding of the risk factors and adapt their strategies accordingly, ensuring resilience and sustainable growth. Finally, this paper adds value to the literature on the post-pandemic impact on FDI inflows in the SAARC region.

This paper is the first attempt to trace the impact of COVID-19 on Foreign Direct Investment and its determinants in the SAARC Countries. Most of the previous studies were analytical in nature and, if empirical, excluded some countries due to the unviability of the data set. This study includes all the SAARC member countries, and all variables' data are completely available. There is still a lack of empirical studies related to the SAARC region; this study attempts to fill the gap.

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Unraveling the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on foreign direct investment and its determinants: empirical insights from SAARC countries10.1108/JES-08-2023-0420Journal of Economic Studies2024-01-24© 2024 Emerald Publishing LimitedRizwan FirdosMohammad SubhanBabu Bakhsh MansuriMajed AlharthiJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-01-2410.1108/JES-08-2023-0420https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0420/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Emerald Publishing Limited
The nonlinear relationship between financial constraints and R&D investment: the mediating role of executive stock optionshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0424/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe current study aims to investigate the mediating role of executive stock options in the nonlinear relationship between financial constraints and research and development (R&D) investment through two measures of financial constraints. This study is based on a sample of 90 French firms for the period extending from 2008 to 2020. The authors employ a panel threshold method to analyze whether the impact of financial constraints on R&D investment depends on the level of financial constraints or not. Using SA index (Hadlock and Pierce, 2010) and FCP index (Schauer et al., 2019) as measures of financial constraints, the authors demonstrate that the relationship between financial constraints and R&D investment is nonlinear. Moreover, the authors find that executive stock options mediate partially the relationship between financial constraints and R&D investment. More specifically, the authors show that stock options could play two roles depending on the level of the financial constraints; inconsistent mediation for firms with low/medium level of financial constraints and partial mediation for highly constrained firms. This paper is the first to the best of the authors' knowledge to investigate the nonlinear relationship between financial constraints and R&D investment as well as the mediating role of executive stock option using dynamic panel threshold models.The nonlinear relationship between financial constraints and R&D investment: the mediating role of executive stock options
Sedki Zaiane, Halim Dabbou
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The current study aims to investigate the mediating role of executive stock options in the nonlinear relationship between financial constraints and research and development (R&D) investment through two measures of financial constraints.

This study is based on a sample of 90 French firms for the period extending from 2008 to 2020. The authors employ a panel threshold method to analyze whether the impact of financial constraints on R&D investment depends on the level of financial constraints or not.

Using SA index (Hadlock and Pierce, 2010) and FCP index (Schauer et al., 2019) as measures of financial constraints, the authors demonstrate that the relationship between financial constraints and R&D investment is nonlinear. Moreover, the authors find that executive stock options mediate partially the relationship between financial constraints and R&D investment. More specifically, the authors show that stock options could play two roles depending on the level of the financial constraints; inconsistent mediation for firms with low/medium level of financial constraints and partial mediation for highly constrained firms.

This paper is the first to the best of the authors' knowledge to investigate the nonlinear relationship between financial constraints and R&D investment as well as the mediating role of executive stock option using dynamic panel threshold models.

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The nonlinear relationship between financial constraints and R&D investment: the mediating role of executive stock options10.1108/JES-08-2023-0424Journal of Economic Studies2023-11-29© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedSedki ZaianeHalim DabbouJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-11-2910.1108/JES-08-2023-0424https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0424/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
The impact of the US stock market on the BRICS and G7: a GVAR approachhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0437/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe authors investigate the impact of the US stock market on the economies of the BRICS and major industrialized economies (G7). The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. Global vector autoregressive (GVAR) empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows. The authors summarize the results in four points: (1) financial integration variables increase the effect of the US stock market on the BRICS and G7, (2) the US shock produces similar responses in these groups regarding industrial production, stock markets and confidence but different responses regarding domestic currencies: in the BRICS, the authors detect appreciation of the currencies, while in the G7, the authors find depreciation, (3) G7 stock markets and policy rates are more sensitive to the US shock than the BRICS and (4) the estimates point out to heterogeneities such as the importance of industrial production to the transmission shock in Japan and China, the exchange rate to India, Japan and the UK, the interest rates to the Eurozone and the UK and confidence to Brazil, South Africa and Canada. The results reinforce the importance of taking into account different levels of economic development. The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. GVAR empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows.The impact of the US stock market on the BRICS and G7: a GVAR approach
Luccas Assis Attílio, Joao Ricardo Faria, Mauricio Prado
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The authors investigate the impact of the US stock market on the economies of the BRICS and major industrialized economies (G7).

The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. Global vector autoregressive (GVAR) empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows.

The authors summarize the results in four points: (1) financial integration variables increase the effect of the US stock market on the BRICS and G7, (2) the US shock produces similar responses in these groups regarding industrial production, stock markets and confidence but different responses regarding domestic currencies: in the BRICS, the authors detect appreciation of the currencies, while in the G7, the authors find depreciation, (3) G7 stock markets and policy rates are more sensitive to the US shock than the BRICS and (4) the estimates point out to heterogeneities such as the importance of industrial production to the transmission shock in Japan and China, the exchange rate to India, Japan and the UK, the interest rates to the Eurozone and the UK and confidence to Brazil, South Africa and Canada.

The results reinforce the importance of taking into account different levels of economic development.

The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. GVAR empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows.

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The impact of the US stock market on the BRICS and G7: a GVAR approach10.1108/JES-08-2023-0437Journal of Economic Studies2024-02-07© 2024 Emerald Publishing LimitedLuccas Assis AttílioJoao Ricardo FariaMauricio PradoJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-02-0710.1108/JES-08-2023-0437https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0437/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Emerald Publishing Limited
Does the inflow of remittances diminish unemployment? The role of political stability in MENA countrieshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0453/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestPrevious literature has investigated the connection amongst remittances, political stability and unemployment in remittance-receiving economies separately. Besides, they did not cover the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. To this end, this research uses the pooled mean group (PMG) method. The findings suggest that the influence of remittances on lowering unemployment accelerates in recipient economies with high levels of political stability. Policymakers in MENA countries should vigorously pursue political stability, which plays a crucial role in boosting the influence of inward remittances on unemployment alleviation. This is accomplished by establishing solid institutions that contribute to ensuring fair politics, increasing citizens' trust in the government, enhancing the rule of law and protecting investors and prioritizing policies and programs that promote political stability. This paper, therefore, aspires to empirically examine the impacts of inward remittances on unemployment via the moderating role of political stability in thirteen MENA-receiving countries from 1996 to 2020.Does the inflow of remittances diminish unemployment? The role of political stability in MENA countries
Khaled Elorabi, Suryati Ishak, Mohamed Maher
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

Previous literature has investigated the connection amongst remittances, political stability and unemployment in remittance-receiving economies separately. Besides, they did not cover the Middle East and North African (MENA) region.

To this end, this research uses the pooled mean group (PMG) method.

The findings suggest that the influence of remittances on lowering unemployment accelerates in recipient economies with high levels of political stability.

Policymakers in MENA countries should vigorously pursue political stability, which plays a crucial role in boosting the influence of inward remittances on unemployment alleviation. This is accomplished by establishing solid institutions that contribute to ensuring fair politics, increasing citizens' trust in the government, enhancing the rule of law and protecting investors and prioritizing policies and programs that promote political stability.

This paper, therefore, aspires to empirically examine the impacts of inward remittances on unemployment via the moderating role of political stability in thirteen MENA-receiving countries from 1996 to 2020.

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Does the inflow of remittances diminish unemployment? The role of political stability in MENA countries10.1108/JES-08-2023-0453Journal of Economic Studies2024-02-27© 2024 Emerald Publishing LimitedKhaled ElorabiSuryati IshakMohamed MaherJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-02-2710.1108/JES-08-2023-0453https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0453/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Emerald Publishing Limited
An empiric on geopolitical risk and the tourism–economic growth nexushttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0459/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study empirically examines the moderating role of geopolitical risk on the tourism–economic growth nexus by applying a recent geopolitical risk indicator developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) in a cross-country panel data growth model context for a sample of 24 countries. A Dummy Variable Least Squares panel data model, nonparametric covariance matrix estimator and SYS-GMM estimation techniques are employed for the analysis. The authors capture the GPR moderating effect by disaggregating the cross-country sample according to low versus high country GPR score and through a GPR interaction coefficient. Several controls are included in the models such as gross fixed capital formation and—consistent with Barro (1990)—government consumption. Trade openness is used to account for the export-led growth effect. In line with neoclassical growth theory (e.g. Barro, 1991), the authors also include the real interest rate, to account for policy makers' commitment to macroeconomic stability, financial depth, as a proxy for financial development, population growth and the level of secondary school education. The authors also control for unobserved country-specific and time-invariant effects. The research finds that the interaction term of geopolitical risk significantly contributes to the predictive ability of the regression and provides empirical evidence that confirms that only in low geopolitical risk countries international tourism positively and significantly contributes to economic growth. Important theoretical and policy implications flow from these findings. The study not only contributes to advancing academic knowledge on the tourism–growth nexus, it also has impact beyond academia. Many countries have in the past pursued and many continue to pursue, tourism specialization and/or tourism-led growth strategies based on the theoretically well-established and empirically validated positive link between inbound tourism and economic growth. The findings alert policy makers in such countries to the significant moderating role that geopolitical risk plays in affecting the above-mentioned relationship and to the importance of prioritizing geopolitical stability as a policy precursor for the successful implementation of such strategies.An empiric on geopolitical risk and the tourism–economic growth nexus
K. Sandar Kyaw, Yun Luo, Glauco De Vita
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study empirically examines the moderating role of geopolitical risk on the tourism–economic growth nexus by applying a recent geopolitical risk indicator developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) in a cross-country panel data growth model context for a sample of 24 countries.

A Dummy Variable Least Squares panel data model, nonparametric covariance matrix estimator and SYS-GMM estimation techniques are employed for the analysis. The authors capture the GPR moderating effect by disaggregating the cross-country sample according to low versus high country GPR score and through a GPR interaction coefficient. Several controls are included in the models such as gross fixed capital formation and—consistent with Barro (1990)—government consumption. Trade openness is used to account for the export-led growth effect. In line with neoclassical growth theory (e.g. Barro, 1991), the authors also include the real interest rate, to account for policy makers' commitment to macroeconomic stability, financial depth, as a proxy for financial development, population growth and the level of secondary school education. The authors also control for unobserved country-specific and time-invariant effects.

The research finds that the interaction term of geopolitical risk significantly contributes to the predictive ability of the regression and provides empirical evidence that confirms that only in low geopolitical risk countries international tourism positively and significantly contributes to economic growth. Important theoretical and policy implications flow from these findings.

The study not only contributes to advancing academic knowledge on the tourism–growth nexus, it also has impact beyond academia. Many countries have in the past pursued and many continue to pursue, tourism specialization and/or tourism-led growth strategies based on the theoretically well-established and empirically validated positive link between inbound tourism and economic growth. The findings alert policy makers in such countries to the significant moderating role that geopolitical risk plays in affecting the above-mentioned relationship and to the importance of prioritizing geopolitical stability as a policy precursor for the successful implementation of such strategies.

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An empiric on geopolitical risk and the tourism–economic growth nexus10.1108/JES-08-2023-0459Journal of Economic Studies2023-12-26© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedK. Sandar KyawYun LuoGlauco De VitaJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-12-2610.1108/JES-08-2023-0459https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0459/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
The impact of recapitalisations and bank competition on Greek bank net interest marginshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0461/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study investigates the reasons behind the very high net interest margins in the Greek banking industry compared to the euro-area, focussing on the association between bank competition and recapitalisations. The author conducts a dynamic panel analysis covering the period from the early 2000s to 2021, that controls for possible endogeneity and treats for heterogeneity. The author also employs local projections impulse response functions that control for structural changes in Greek banking. The author finds that low bank competition has contributed to high net interest margins in Greece. Interestingly, the impact of recapitalisations conditional to low bank competition has had a significant further impact on increasing net interest margins, which is a noteworthy case due to several Greek bank recapitalisations in the last ten years. The author’s findings are supported by local projections impulse response functions. To mitigate distortions in bank competition, the author argues to accelerate steps toward the direction of the banking union and a common bank regulation framework in the euro-area.The impact of recapitalisations and bank competition on Greek bank net interest margins
Emmanuel Mamatzakis
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study investigates the reasons behind the very high net interest margins in the Greek banking industry compared to the euro-area, focussing on the association between bank competition and recapitalisations.

The author conducts a dynamic panel analysis covering the period from the early 2000s to 2021, that controls for possible endogeneity and treats for heterogeneity. The author also employs local projections impulse response functions that control for structural changes in Greek banking.

The author finds that low bank competition has contributed to high net interest margins in Greece. Interestingly, the impact of recapitalisations conditional to low bank competition has had a significant further impact on increasing net interest margins, which is a noteworthy case due to several Greek bank recapitalisations in the last ten years. The author’s findings are supported by local projections impulse response functions.

To mitigate distortions in bank competition, the author argues to accelerate steps toward the direction of the banking union and a common bank regulation framework in the euro-area.

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The impact of recapitalisations and bank competition on Greek bank net interest margins10.1108/JES-08-2023-0461Journal of Economic Studies2024-01-04© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedEmmanuel MamatzakisJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-01-0410.1108/JES-08-2023-0461https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0461/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Inflation–inequality puzzle: is it still apparent?https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-09-2023-0477/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe primary focus of this study is to examine the distributional consequences of the widespread increase in prices. The fundamental question the study aims to address is whether the dynamics of income distribution due to higher inflation differ in the short term compared to the long run. The authors estimated a panel-data model (fixed effects) using inequality and inflation data available at a high frequency, i.e. on a quarterly basis for over 30 years, and found evidence that inflation causes rapid swings in income distribution. The authors’ contribution to the literature lies in providing evidence that inflation rapidly causes swings in income distribution, even after controlling for the state of the economy. The authors also demonstrate that the magnitude and direction of the effect of inflation on income inequality depend on whether the initial inflation rate is below or above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the authors are the first to emphasize that the targets set by central banks can drive the strength and direction of the relationship between inflation and income inequality.Inflation–inequality puzzle: is it still apparent?
Edmond Berisha, Rangan Gupta, Orkideh Gharehgozli
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The primary focus of this study is to examine the distributional consequences of the widespread increase in prices. The fundamental question the study aims to address is whether the dynamics of income distribution due to higher inflation differ in the short term compared to the long run.

The authors estimated a panel-data model (fixed effects) using inequality and inflation data available at a high frequency, i.e. on a quarterly basis for over 30 years, and found evidence that inflation causes rapid swings in income distribution.

The authors’ contribution to the literature lies in providing evidence that inflation rapidly causes swings in income distribution, even after controlling for the state of the economy. The authors also demonstrate that the magnitude and direction of the effect of inflation on income inequality depend on whether the initial inflation rate is below or above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the authors are the first to emphasize that the targets set by central banks can drive the strength and direction of the relationship between inflation and income inequality.

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Inflation–inequality puzzle: is it still apparent?10.1108/JES-09-2023-0477Journal of Economic Studies2024-01-15© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedEdmond BerishaRangan GuptaOrkideh GharehgozliJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-01-1510.1108/JES-09-2023-0477https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-09-2023-0477/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Do received remittances cause Dutch disease in developed and developing countries?https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-09-2023-0496/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe present study aimed to examine the effect of received remittance inflows on the price level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor to the market exchange rate in 36 developed and developing countries from 2004 to 2020. The panel data conducted a comparative analysis and used panel least squares, regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors of fixed effect, random effect, feasible generalised least squares and maximum likelihood robust least squares to overcome the heterogeneity issue. Furthermore, the two-step difference generalised method of moments to overcome the endogeneity issue. Diagnostic tests were used to increase robustness. In the studied countries, there was a statistically significant negative relationship between received remittance inflows and the price-level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor to the market exchange rate. This relationship explains why remittance flows depreciate the real exchange rate. The study’s results also indicated that attracting investments can improve the quality of institutions despite high tax rates, leading to low tax revenue. The current study findings enrich the understanding of policies of how governments should minimise tariff rates on capital imports and introduce export-oriented incentive programmes. The study also revealed that Dutch disease can occur due to differences in the demand structure and manufacturing development policy.Do received remittances cause Dutch disease in developed and developing countries?
Faris Alshubiri, Samia Fekir, Billal Chikhi
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The present study aimed to examine the effect of received remittance inflows on the price level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor to the market exchange rate in 36 developed and developing countries from 2004 to 2020.

The panel data conducted a comparative analysis and used panel least squares, regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors of fixed effect, random effect, feasible generalised least squares and maximum likelihood robust least squares to overcome the heterogeneity issue. Furthermore, the two-step difference generalised method of moments to overcome the endogeneity issue. Diagnostic tests were used to increase robustness.

In the studied countries, there was a statistically significant negative relationship between received remittance inflows and the price-level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor to the market exchange rate. This relationship explains why remittance flows depreciate the real exchange rate. The study’s results also indicated that attracting investments can improve the quality of institutions despite high tax rates, leading to low tax revenue.

The current study findings enrich the understanding of policies of how governments should minimise tariff rates on capital imports and introduce export-oriented incentive programmes. The study also revealed that Dutch disease can occur due to differences in the demand structure and manufacturing development policy.

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Do received remittances cause Dutch disease in developed and developing countries?10.1108/JES-09-2023-0496Journal of Economic Studies2024-01-08© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedFaris AlshubiriSamia FekirBillal ChikhiJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-01-0810.1108/JES-09-2023-0496https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-09-2023-0496/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Tourist perceptions of health-safety risks in a time of pandemichttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-09-2023-0506/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe COVID-19 pandemic has induced tourism destinations to reconsider organisational aspects related to health safety measures, as perceptions of health safety may have become particularly important for tourists. Using data from summer 2020, the period immediately after the outbreak of the pandemic, we investigate the factors that affected tourist perceptions of health safety. Data come from a survey of tourist-card holders in Trentino, an Italian mountain destination. Through regressions, we assess the conditional correlation between health safety measure evaluations following a holiday and a set of covariates related to the features of the tourist area and the tourists themselves, as well as COVID-19 incidence in their province of residence in the months before the holiday. Tourist-related features seem not to impact on perceived health safety, whereas some destination- and accommodation-related elements do. In particular, the number of tourist beds affects it negatively, and staying at a hotel does it in a positive way. COVID-19 incidence in one’s home province does not affect perceptions of health safety measures, which suggests a possible sample selection effect and/or the need for more fine-grained data. This paper is one of the few on the immediate effects of the COVID-19 pandemic using data from a large sample of actual tourists. Our findings point out the importance of the intrinsic features of some places and accommodation in influencing perceptions of safety. We discuss implications for scholars and destination managers.Tourist perceptions of health-safety risks in a time of pandemic
Chiara Dalle Nogare, Raffaele Scuderi
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The COVID-19 pandemic has induced tourism destinations to reconsider organisational aspects related to health safety measures, as perceptions of health safety may have become particularly important for tourists. Using data from summer 2020, the period immediately after the outbreak of the pandemic, we investigate the factors that affected tourist perceptions of health safety.

Data come from a survey of tourist-card holders in Trentino, an Italian mountain destination. Through regressions, we assess the conditional correlation between health safety measure evaluations following a holiday and a set of covariates related to the features of the tourist area and the tourists themselves, as well as COVID-19 incidence in their province of residence in the months before the holiday.

Tourist-related features seem not to impact on perceived health safety, whereas some destination- and accommodation-related elements do. In particular, the number of tourist beds affects it negatively, and staying at a hotel does it in a positive way. COVID-19 incidence in one’s home province does not affect perceptions of health safety measures, which suggests a possible sample selection effect and/or the need for more fine-grained data.

This paper is one of the few on the immediate effects of the COVID-19 pandemic using data from a large sample of actual tourists. Our findings point out the importance of the intrinsic features of some places and accommodation in influencing perceptions of safety. We discuss implications for scholars and destination managers.

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Tourist perceptions of health-safety risks in a time of pandemic10.1108/JES-09-2023-0506Journal of Economic Studies2024-02-23© 2024 Emerald Publishing LimitedChiara Dalle NogareRaffaele ScuderiJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-02-2310.1108/JES-09-2023-0506https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-09-2023-0506/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Emerald Publishing Limited
Beyond numbers: rethinking host professionalism on Airbnbhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-09-2023-0512/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestWe challenge the conventional approach to distinguish between professional and non-professional Airbnb hosts by solely using the number of managed listings. We leverage the recently released platform policy that categorizes hosts' professionalism by their self-declared status. Our multinomial modeling approach predicts true host status, factoring in the number of managed listings and controlling for listing and host traits. We employ data from five major European cities collected through scraping the Airbnb webpage. Our research reveals that relying solely on the number of listings managed falls short of accurately predicting the host type, leading to difficulties in evaluating the platform's impact on the local housing market and reducing the effectiveness of policy intervention. Moreover, we advocate using more fine-grained measures to differentiate further between semi-professional and professional hosts who exhibit heterogeneous economic behaviors. Reliable professionalism metrics are essential to curb unethical practices, promote market transparency and ensure a level playing field for all market participants. This work pioneers the revelation of the inadequacy of a commonly used measure for predicting host professionalism accurately.Beyond numbers: rethinking host professionalism on Airbnb
Veronica Leoni, Pierpaolo Pattitoni, Laura Vici
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

We challenge the conventional approach to distinguish between professional and non-professional Airbnb hosts by solely using the number of managed listings.

We leverage the recently released platform policy that categorizes hosts' professionalism by their self-declared status. Our multinomial modeling approach predicts true host status, factoring in the number of managed listings and controlling for listing and host traits. We employ data from five major European cities collected through scraping the Airbnb webpage.

Our research reveals that relying solely on the number of listings managed falls short of accurately predicting the host type, leading to difficulties in evaluating the platform's impact on the local housing market and reducing the effectiveness of policy intervention. Moreover, we advocate using more fine-grained measures to differentiate further between semi-professional and professional hosts who exhibit heterogeneous economic behaviors.

Reliable professionalism metrics are essential to curb unethical practices, promote market transparency and ensure a level playing field for all market participants.

This work pioneers the revelation of the inadequacy of a commonly used measure for predicting host professionalism accurately.

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Beyond numbers: rethinking host professionalism on Airbnb10.1108/JES-09-2023-0512Journal of Economic Studies2024-02-08© 2024 Emerald Publishing LimitedVeronica LeoniPierpaolo PattitoniLaura ViciJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-02-0810.1108/JES-09-2023-0512https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-09-2023-0512/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Emerald Publishing Limited
From parameters to policies: sensitivity analysis and fiscal and monetary reactionshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-10-2023-0556/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each parameter, and we examine how changes within these ranges can alter the outcomes of fiscal policy. In this way, we aim to highlight the importance of these parameters in the formulation and evaluation of fiscal policy. The role of fiscal policy, its effects and multipliers continues to be a subject of intense debate in macroeconomics. Despite adopting a New Keynesian approach within a macroeconomic model, the reactions of macroeconomic variables to fiscal shocks can vary across different contexts and theoretical frameworks. This paper aims to investigate these diverse reactions by conducting a sensitivity analysis of parameters. Specifically, the study examines how key variables respond to fiscal shocks under different parameter settings. By analyzing the behavioral dynamics of these variables, this research contributes to the ongoing discussion on fiscal policy. The findings offer valuable insights to enrich the understanding of the complex relationship between fiscal shocks and macroeconomic outcomes, thus facilitating informed policy debates. This paper aims to investigate key elements of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The focus is on the calibration of parameters and their impact on macroeconomic variables, such as output and inflation. The study also examines how different parameter settings affect the response of monetary policy to fiscal measures. In conclusion, this study has relied on theoretical exploration and a comprehensive review of existing literature. The parameters and their relationships have been analyzed within a robust theoretical framework, offering valuable insights for further research on how these factors influence model forecasts and inform policy recommendations derived from New Keynesian DSGE models. Moving forward, it is recommended that future work includes empirical analyses to test the reliability and effectiveness of parameter calibrations in real-world conditions. This will contribute to enhancing the accuracy and relevance of DSGE models for economic policy decision-making. This study is motivated by the aim to provide a deeper understanding of the roles macroeconomic model parameters play concerning responses to expansionary fiscal policies and the subsequent reactions of monetary authorities. Comprehensive reviews that encompass this breadth of relationships within a single text are rare in the literature, making this work a valuable contribution to stimulating discussions on macroeconomic policies.From parameters to policies: sensitivity analysis and fiscal and monetary reactions
Karlo Marques Junior
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each parameter, and we examine how changes within these ranges can alter the outcomes of fiscal policy. In this way, we aim to highlight the importance of these parameters in the formulation and evaluation of fiscal policy.

The role of fiscal policy, its effects and multipliers continues to be a subject of intense debate in macroeconomics. Despite adopting a New Keynesian approach within a macroeconomic model, the reactions of macroeconomic variables to fiscal shocks can vary across different contexts and theoretical frameworks. This paper aims to investigate these diverse reactions by conducting a sensitivity analysis of parameters. Specifically, the study examines how key variables respond to fiscal shocks under different parameter settings. By analyzing the behavioral dynamics of these variables, this research contributes to the ongoing discussion on fiscal policy. The findings offer valuable insights to enrich the understanding of the complex relationship between fiscal shocks and macroeconomic outcomes, thus facilitating informed policy debates.

This paper aims to investigate key elements of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The focus is on the calibration of parameters and their impact on macroeconomic variables, such as output and inflation. The study also examines how different parameter settings affect the response of monetary policy to fiscal measures. In conclusion, this study has relied on theoretical exploration and a comprehensive review of existing literature. The parameters and their relationships have been analyzed within a robust theoretical framework, offering valuable insights for further research on how these factors influence model forecasts and inform policy recommendations derived from New Keynesian DSGE models. Moving forward, it is recommended that future work includes empirical analyses to test the reliability and effectiveness of parameter calibrations in real-world conditions. This will contribute to enhancing the accuracy and relevance of DSGE models for economic policy decision-making.

This study is motivated by the aim to provide a deeper understanding of the roles macroeconomic model parameters play concerning responses to expansionary fiscal policies and the subsequent reactions of monetary authorities. Comprehensive reviews that encompass this breadth of relationships within a single text are rare in the literature, making this work a valuable contribution to stimulating discussions on macroeconomic policies.

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From parameters to policies: sensitivity analysis and fiscal and monetary reactions10.1108/JES-10-2023-0556Journal of Economic Studies2024-02-05© 2024 Emerald Publishing LimitedKarlo Marques JuniorJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-02-0510.1108/JES-10-2023-0556https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-10-2023-0556/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Emerald Publishing Limited
A novel market sentiment measure: assessing the link between VIX and the Global Consciousness Projects datahttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-11-2023-0663/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe primary objective of this research is to explore the potential of utilizing Global Consciousness Project (GCP) data as a tool for understanding and predicting market sentiment. Specifically, the study aims to assess whether incorporating GCP data into econometric models can enhance the comprehension of daily market movements, providing valuable insights for traders. This study employs econometric models to investigate the correlation between the Standard & Poor's 500 Volatility Index (VIX), a common measure of market sentiment and data from the GCP. The focus is particularly on the largest daily composite GCP data value (Max[Z]) and its significant covariation with changes in VIX. The research employs interaction terms with VIX and daily returns from global markets, including Europe and Asia, to explore the relationship further. The results reveal a significant relationship with the GCP data, particularly Max[Z] and VIX. Interaction terms with both VIX and daily returns from global markets are highly significant, explaining about one percent of the variance in the econometric model. This finding suggests that variations in GCP data can contribute to a better understanding of market dynamics and improve forecasting accuracy. One limitation of this study is the potential for overfitting and P-hacking. To address this concern, the models undergo rigorous testing in an out-of-sample simulation study lasting for a predefined one-year period. This limitation underscores the need for cautious interpretation and application of the findings, recognizing the complexities and uncertainties inherent in market dynamics. The study explores the practical implications of incorporating GCP data into trading strategies. Econometric models, both with and without GCP data, are subjected to an out-of-sample simulation where an artificial trader employs S&P 500 tracking instruments based on the model's one-day-ahead forecasts. The results suggest that GCP data can enhance daily forecasts, offering practical value for traders seeking improved decision-making tools. Utilizing data from the GCP is found to be advantageous for traders as noteworthy correlations with market sentiment are found. This unanticipated finding challenges established paradigms in both economics and consciousness research, seamlessly integrating these domains of research. Traders can leverage this innovative tool, as it can be used to refine forecasting precision.A novel market sentiment measure: assessing the link between VIX and the Global Consciousness Projects data
Ulf Holmberg
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The primary objective of this research is to explore the potential of utilizing Global Consciousness Project (GCP) data as a tool for understanding and predicting market sentiment. Specifically, the study aims to assess whether incorporating GCP data into econometric models can enhance the comprehension of daily market movements, providing valuable insights for traders.

This study employs econometric models to investigate the correlation between the Standard & Poor's 500 Volatility Index (VIX), a common measure of market sentiment and data from the GCP. The focus is particularly on the largest daily composite GCP data value (Max[Z]) and its significant covariation with changes in VIX. The research employs interaction terms with VIX and daily returns from global markets, including Europe and Asia, to explore the relationship further.

The results reveal a significant relationship with the GCP data, particularly Max[Z] and VIX. Interaction terms with both VIX and daily returns from global markets are highly significant, explaining about one percent of the variance in the econometric model. This finding suggests that variations in GCP data can contribute to a better understanding of market dynamics and improve forecasting accuracy.

One limitation of this study is the potential for overfitting and P-hacking. To address this concern, the models undergo rigorous testing in an out-of-sample simulation study lasting for a predefined one-year period. This limitation underscores the need for cautious interpretation and application of the findings, recognizing the complexities and uncertainties inherent in market dynamics.

The study explores the practical implications of incorporating GCP data into trading strategies. Econometric models, both with and without GCP data, are subjected to an out-of-sample simulation where an artificial trader employs S&P 500 tracking instruments based on the model's one-day-ahead forecasts. The results suggest that GCP data can enhance daily forecasts, offering practical value for traders seeking improved decision-making tools.

Utilizing data from the GCP is found to be advantageous for traders as noteworthy correlations with market sentiment are found. This unanticipated finding challenges established paradigms in both economics and consciousness research, seamlessly integrating these domains of research. Traders can leverage this innovative tool, as it can be used to refine forecasting precision.

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A novel market sentiment measure: assessing the link between VIX and the Global Consciousness Projects data10.1108/JES-11-2023-0663Journal of Economic Studies2023-12-26© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedUlf HolmbergJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-12-2610.1108/JES-11-2023-0663https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-11-2023-0663/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Monetary policy and nonperforming loan ratios in a monetary union; a counterfactual studyhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-12-2022-0651/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestFor close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the impact such a unionised monetary regime will have on financial stability as represented by the nonperforming loan ratios of Ghana in a counterfactual framework. This study models nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on the monetary policy rate and the business cycle. The study then used historical data to estimate the parameters of the nonperforming loan ratio response function using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated parameters are further used to estimate the impact of several counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates on the nonperforming loan ratios and its volatility of Ghana. As robustness check, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is also used to estimate the nonperforming loan ratios response function and to predict nonperforming loans under the counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates. The results of the counterfactual study reveals that the apparent cost of monetary unification is much less than supposed with a monetary union likely to dampen volatility in non-performing loans in Ghana. As such, the WAMZ members should increase the pace towards monetary unification. The paper contributes to the existing literature by explicitly modelling nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on monetary policy and the business cycle. The study also settles the debate on the financial stability cost of a monetary union due to the nonalignment of business cycles and economic structures.Monetary policy and nonperforming loan ratios in a monetary union; a counterfactual study
Ayuba Napari, Rasim Ozcan, Asad Ul Islam Khan
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

For close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the impact such a unionised monetary regime will have on financial stability as represented by the nonperforming loan ratios of Ghana in a counterfactual framework.

This study models nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on the monetary policy rate and the business cycle. The study then used historical data to estimate the parameters of the nonperforming loan ratio response function using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated parameters are further used to estimate the impact of several counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates on the nonperforming loan ratios and its volatility of Ghana. As robustness check, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is also used to estimate the nonperforming loan ratios response function and to predict nonperforming loans under the counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates.

The results of the counterfactual study reveals that the apparent cost of monetary unification is much less than supposed with a monetary union likely to dampen volatility in non-performing loans in Ghana. As such, the WAMZ members should increase the pace towards monetary unification.

The paper contributes to the existing literature by explicitly modelling nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on monetary policy and the business cycle. The study also settles the debate on the financial stability cost of a monetary union due to the nonalignment of business cycles and economic structures.

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Monetary policy and nonperforming loan ratios in a monetary union; a counterfactual study10.1108/JES-12-2022-0651Journal of Economic Studies2023-07-27© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedAyuba NapariRasim OzcanAsad Ul Islam KhanJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-07-2710.1108/JES-12-2022-0651https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-12-2022-0651/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
The effect of NPLs management in the PIIGS banking efficiency: an approach using non-parametric partial order-m frontiershttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-12-2022-0678/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study focuses on the banking systems evaluation in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain (known as the PIIGS) during the financial and post-financial crisis period from 2009 to 2018. A conditional robust nonparametric frontier analysis (order-m estimators) is used to measure banking efficiency combined with variables highlighting the effects of Non-Performing Loans. Next, a truncated regression is used to examine if institutional, macroeconomic, and financial variables affect bank performance differently. Unlike earlier studies, we use the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) as an institutional variable that affects banking sector efficiency. This research shows that the PIIGS crisis affects each bank/country differently due to their various efficiency levels. Most of the study variables — CPI, government debt to GDP ratio, inflation, bank size — significantly affect banking efficiency measures. The contribution of this article to the relevant banking literature is two-fold. First, it analyses the efficiency of the PIIGS banking system from 2009 to 2018, focusing on NPLs. Second, this is the first empirical study to use probabilistic frontier analysis (order-m estimators) to evaluate PIIGS banking systems.The effect of NPLs management in the PIIGS banking efficiency: an approach using non-parametric partial order-m frontiers
Emmanouil G. Chalampalakis, Ioannis Dokas, Eleftherios Spyromitros
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study focuses on the banking systems evaluation in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain (known as the PIIGS) during the financial and post-financial crisis period from 2009 to 2018.

A conditional robust nonparametric frontier analysis (order-m estimators) is used to measure banking efficiency combined with variables highlighting the effects of Non-Performing Loans. Next, a truncated regression is used to examine if institutional, macroeconomic, and financial variables affect bank performance differently. Unlike earlier studies, we use the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) as an institutional variable that affects banking sector efficiency.

This research shows that the PIIGS crisis affects each bank/country differently due to their various efficiency levels. Most of the study variables — CPI, government debt to GDP ratio, inflation, bank size — significantly affect banking efficiency measures.

The contribution of this article to the relevant banking literature is two-fold. First, it analyses the efficiency of the PIIGS banking system from 2009 to 2018, focusing on NPLs. Second, this is the first empirical study to use probabilistic frontier analysis (order-m estimators) to evaluate PIIGS banking systems.

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The effect of NPLs management in the PIIGS banking efficiency: an approach using non-parametric partial order-m frontiers10.1108/JES-12-2022-0678Journal of Economic Studies2023-08-11© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedEmmanouil G. ChalampalakisIoannis DokasEleftherios SpyromitrosJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-08-1110.1108/JES-12-2022-0678https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-12-2022-0678/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Labour market insecurity and volunteering in the European Union: policy suggestions for job securityhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-12-2023-0717/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThere is extensive literature on the determinants of job tenure insecurity. However, very little is known about the individual drivers of labour market insecurity. Additionally, while a piece of literature shows that volunteering improves workers' income, no study considers volunteering as an activity which could help workers to feel more confident about their perception of labour market insecurity if they lost or resigned their jobs. Therefore, purpose of this paper is to study whether workers who volunteer are less likely to perceive labour market insecurity. The paper employs data from the sixth European working conditions survey which provides a great deal of information on working conditions. For the empirical investigation, probit model as well as robustness analysis have been implemented. Results show that employees who do voluntary activities have a greater likelihood of declaring perceived labour market insecurity, which is nearly 3 percentage points lower, than employees who do not volunteer. Findings suggest that governments need to improve the relationship between for-profit and non-profit sectors to encourage volunteering. This is the first study which considers volunteering as an activity which could help workers to feel more confident about their perception of “labour market insecurity”. Most of the studies on “labour market insecurity” do not focus on the workers individual characteristics but mainly on the labour markets institutional characteristics and welfare regimes differences.Labour market insecurity and volunteering in the European Union: policy suggestions for job security
Nunzia Nappo, Damiano Fiorillo, Giuseppe Lubrano Lavadera
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

There is extensive literature on the determinants of job tenure insecurity. However, very little is known about the individual drivers of labour market insecurity. Additionally, while a piece of literature shows that volunteering improves workers' income, no study considers volunteering as an activity which could help workers to feel more confident about their perception of labour market insecurity if they lost or resigned their jobs. Therefore, purpose of this paper is to study whether workers who volunteer are less likely to perceive labour market insecurity.

The paper employs data from the sixth European working conditions survey which provides a great deal of information on working conditions. For the empirical investigation, probit model as well as robustness analysis have been implemented.

Results show that employees who do voluntary activities have a greater likelihood of declaring perceived labour market insecurity, which is nearly 3 percentage points lower, than employees who do not volunteer. Findings suggest that governments need to improve the relationship between for-profit and non-profit sectors to encourage volunteering.

This is the first study which considers volunteering as an activity which could help workers to feel more confident about their perception of “labour market insecurity”. Most of the studies on “labour market insecurity” do not focus on the workers individual characteristics but mainly on the labour markets institutional characteristics and welfare regimes differences.

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Labour market insecurity and volunteering in the European Union: policy suggestions for job security10.1108/JES-12-2023-0717Journal of Economic Studies2024-02-02© 2024 Emerald Publishing LimitedNunzia NappoDamiano FiorilloGiuseppe Lubrano LavaderaJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-02-0210.1108/JES-12-2023-0717https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-12-2023-0717/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Emerald Publishing Limited
Beyond borders: investigating the impact of the 2023 Israeli–Palestinian conflict on global equity marketshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-12-2023-0729/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe present research study aims to explore the impact of the most recent Israeli–Palestinian conflict, which unfolded in October 2023, on global equity markets, including a wide range of both emerging and developed markets (as per the Morgan Stanley Capital Investment country classification). The market model of event study methodology, with an estimation window of 200 days and 28-day event window (including event day, i.e. October 7, 2023), has been employed to investigate the event’s impact on the stock markets of different countries, with 24 emerging countries and 23 developed countries. The daily closing prices of the prominent indices of all 47 countries have been analyzed to examine the impact of the conflict on emerging markets, developed markets and overall global equity markets. Additionally, cross-sectional regression analysis has been performed to investigate the possible explanations for abnormal returns. The findings of the study suggest the heterogeneous impact of the selected event on different markets. Notably, emerging markets and the overall global equity landscape exhibited substantial negative responses on the event day, as reflected in average abnormal returns of −0.47% and −0.397%, respectively. In contrast, developed markets displayed resilience, with no significant negative impact observed on the day of the event. A closer examination of individual countries revealed diverse reactions, with Poland, Egypt, Greece, Denmark and Portugal standing out for their positive or resilient market responses. Poland, in particular, demonstrated significantly positive cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of 7.16% in the short-term and 8.59% in the long-term event windows (−7, +7 and −7, +20, respectively), emphasizing its robust performance amid the geopolitical turmoil. The study also found that, during various event windows, specific variables had a significant impact on the CARs. The study suggests diversification and monitoring of geopolitical risks are key strategies for investors to enhance portfolio resilience during the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. This study identifies countries such as Poland, Egypt, Greece, Denmark and Portugal with positive or resilient market reactions, providing practical insights for strategic investment decisions. Key takeaways include identifying resilient markets, leveraging opportunistic strategies and navigating market dynamics during geopolitical uncertainties. As per the authors’ thorough investigation and review of the literature, the present study is the earliest attempt to explore the short-term and long-term impact of the 2023 Israeli–Palestinian conflict on equity markets worldwide using the event study approach and cross-sectional regression analysis.Beyond borders: investigating the impact of the 2023 Israeli–Palestinian conflict on global equity markets
Priyanka Goyal, Pooja Soni
Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The present research study aims to explore the impact of the most recent Israeli–Palestinian conflict, which unfolded in October 2023, on global equity markets, including a wide range of both emerging and developed markets (as per the Morgan Stanley Capital Investment country classification).

The market model of event study methodology, with an estimation window of 200 days and 28-day event window (including event day, i.e. October 7, 2023), has been employed to investigate the event’s impact on the stock markets of different countries, with 24 emerging countries and 23 developed countries. The daily closing prices of the prominent indices of all 47 countries have been analyzed to examine the impact of the conflict on emerging markets, developed markets and overall global equity markets. Additionally, cross-sectional regression analysis has been performed to investigate the possible explanations for abnormal returns.

The findings of the study suggest the heterogeneous impact of the selected event on different markets. Notably, emerging markets and the overall global equity landscape exhibited substantial negative responses on the event day, as reflected in average abnormal returns of −0.47% and −0.397%, respectively. In contrast, developed markets displayed resilience, with no significant negative impact observed on the day of the event. A closer examination of individual countries revealed diverse reactions, with Poland, Egypt, Greece, Denmark and Portugal standing out for their positive or resilient market responses. Poland, in particular, demonstrated significantly positive cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of 7.16% in the short-term and 8.59% in the long-term event windows (−7, +7 and −7, +20, respectively), emphasizing its robust performance amid the geopolitical turmoil. The study also found that, during various event windows, specific variables had a significant impact on the CARs.

The study suggests diversification and monitoring of geopolitical risks are key strategies for investors to enhance portfolio resilience during the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. This study identifies countries such as Poland, Egypt, Greece, Denmark and Portugal with positive or resilient market reactions, providing practical insights for strategic investment decisions. Key takeaways include identifying resilient markets, leveraging opportunistic strategies and navigating market dynamics during geopolitical uncertainties.

As per the authors’ thorough investigation and review of the literature, the present study is the earliest attempt to explore the short-term and long-term impact of the 2023 Israeli–Palestinian conflict on equity markets worldwide using the event study approach and cross-sectional regression analysis.

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Beyond borders: investigating the impact of the 2023 Israeli–Palestinian conflict on global equity markets10.1108/JES-12-2023-0729Journal of Economic Studies2024-03-20© 2024 Emerald Publishing LimitedPriyanka GoyalPooja SoniJournal of Economic Studiesahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-03-2010.1108/JES-12-2023-0729https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-12-2023-0729/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Emerald Publishing Limited