This study aims to investigate the relationships between loan growth, loan losses and net income after the 2008 global financial crisis. This study further conducts a comparative analysis by considering the period of COVID-19.
This study uses panel data models such as one-step system GMM, random effects, fixed effects and OLS, with a data set of 131 Chinese commercial banks from 2009 to 2020.
The study finds no significant relationship between loan growth and future loan losses. However, after adjusting loan loss by net interest income (NII-adjusted loan loss), the study reveals that loan growth in the subsequent year decreases if NII-adjusted loan loss increases. The study also demonstrates the positive effect of loan growth on net income as newly expanded loans are funded at similar costs but offered at a lower rate compared with existing loans. During COVID-19, loan growth and net income were higher than in previous years.
The findings suggest that Chinese banks can increase lending to support the economy without sacrificing loan quality, emphasizing the importance of maintaining and enhancing credit policies and practices. Chinese banks should also continue to refine their pricing strategies for loans and deposits. The findings also imply that China's policy responses to the impact of COVID-19 could serve as lessons for future policy decisions.
]]>This paper aims to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on trade flows in Asia Pacific countries and explores the causality between COVID-19-related shocks and trade.
The authors used two novel techniques, namely, two-stage instrumental-variables (2SIV) approach and Juodis, Karavias and Sarafids (JKS) causality test, to examine trade dynamics in the Asia Pacific region during the pandemic.
Using the monthly trade data of 17 Asia Pacific countries between January 2020 and December 2021, the results were threefold. Firstly, the empirical analysis showed that during the COVID-19 crisis, the flow of exports tended to persist idiosyncratically in comparison to the flow of imports. In particular, a specific finding was that the persistence level in exports was about 20%–25% higher than that in imports. Secondly, the authors found that the past values of COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 deaths contain information that helps to predict exports/imports over and above the information contained in the past values of exports/imports alone. Finally, the study established that the government response and stringency indexes have a Granger-causal relationship with exports and imports.
For the foreseeable future, these findings have significant policy ramifications. Firstly, if a COVID-19 crisis-like situation emerges in the future, it will be critical for countries to maintain their competitiveness throughout the crisis, like the COVID-19 pandemic, while also rebuilding trade relationships wherever possible. Secondly, because information about government responses and measures can also be used to predict future trade flows, prudent management of government responses and stringent measures will be necessary in a crisis like COVID-19 to achieve the optimum level of exports and imports. At the same time, the trading partners should give up the idea of trade protection and focus on finding a way to balance the conflicting needs of imports and exports.
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the authors, for the first time, used a 2SIV approach and JKS causality test to examine trade dynamics in the Asia Pacific region during the pandemic. In addition, the authors present the first comprehensive analysis of the evolving relationships between export and import flows and governmental policy responses under COVID-19. As a result, it contributes uniquely to both public and international economics.
]]>The purpose of this study is to provide a nuanced explanation of the linkage between entrepreneurial motivations, job attractiveness and growth of family-owned small and mid-sized enterprises (SMEs) using expectancy and institutional theories.
The data was collected from small family business owners and job seekers in the same companies during interview time using a simple random technique.
The study found that three EMs among small business owners play a pivotal role in family SME business growth in underdeveloped trade regions like China–Pakistan Economic Corridor. These firms are interested in investing in seaport-related commerce, restaurants or hotels and real estate business.
The government, small family business owners, universities and regional youth can use this applied research for their benefits alike.
The study contributes in multiple ways. First, the authors brought a unique context in the emerging economies context of an informal economy like Pakistan. Second, the authors have uniquely tested the moderating role of job attractiveness in the least developed regions. Finally, the authors have integrated family SMEs’ expectancy theory and institutional perspective.
]]>This study aims to examine the export competitiveness of Vietnam’s apparel sector by identifying the precise product categories that create its comparative advantage.
Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and normalized revealed comparative advantage (NRCA) form the research methodology, and the RCA/NRCA values are calculated for the 2011–2020 period.
In total, 29 out of 34 product categories at four-digit levels and 65 out of 217 subcategories at six-digit levels elicited a consistent export comparative advantage throughout the 10-year study timeframe. The study also identified 13 subcategories at six-digit levels, which indicated 10 consecutive years of relative disadvantages.
The study’s findings have far-reaching implications for economic policy, development strategies and global economic integration. By providing a nuanced understanding of a country’s export strengths in the international apparel trade, this study offers valuable guidance for informed decision-making at various levels. The findings will serve as a significant source of information for policymakers and help them formulate novel policies aiming to diversify Vietnam’s apparel product offerings and export destinations. The results will also inform the government regarding the industry’s potential and attract necessary support, enabling it to grow further. This study reveals patterns in Vietnam’s apparel trade but does not provide insights into the underlying causes of comparative advantage.
The study provides an in-depth overview of Vietnam’s comparative advantages and disadvantages at two-, four- and six-digit harmonized system levels and helps understand Vietnam’s apparel export competitiveness.
]]>