Price changes and defection levels in a subscription‐type market: can an estimation model really predict defection levels?

This paper examines the relationship between price changes and customer defection levels in a “subscription”‐type market, namely car insurance. Two regression models are constructed to estimate this relationship, one model for younger customers and another for older customers. The regression models closely estimate the defection rates associated with different levels of price changes. The analysis also shows that the impact of price decreases on defection rates is less than the impact of price increases, extending previous research. The paper notes that models of this type should offer true predictive ability and therefore tests the ability of the model to predict defection rates for new data. The models performed comparatively poorly in this regard, particularly for price increases. The paper concludes that multiple sets of data are needed to develop and validate predictive models.