National technology roadmapping of China: practices and implications

The purpose of this paper is to describe the first National Technology Roadmap (NTRM) of China, compiled by the Ministry of Science and Technology in 2007, in accordance with the analytical framework of “national needs‐strategic tasks‐key technologies‐development priorities,” and to comment upon its progress.

The technology foresight in 2003‐2006 was organized by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology. Based on two large rounds of Delphi investigations involving 1,400 experts and a SWOT analysis of every candidate technology, the key technologies were selected and the characteristics of them acquired. A large number of panels were organized to discuss and affirm the national needs and strategic tasks, so the logic relationships among the key items of NTRM could be clarified.

Five national needs, 30 strategic tasks, and 90 key technologies were promoted, and their relationships constructed. The characteristics of all the 90 technologies, including their R&D basis, gap between their level and the levels of advanced countries, and the possible time needed to realize these technologies were evaluated. The NTRM of China was successfully formulated.

Only nine technology fields were considered in the Delphi investigations, because of the limited study conditions. This might become the limitation to the application of this NTRM. In further study, more technology fields should be involved and all the processes finished as soon as possible.

The results of the NTRM were partly adopted by the 11th science and technology plan of China. Through the progress of NTRM, agreements concerning the key technologies and their development roadmaps were made. Both the NTRM and its compiling process provide important reference points for scientific and technological managers, scientists, and entrepreneurs, because they will help to make better decisions and contribute greatly to the research and development of the technologies.

This is the first attempt in China to make a NTRM. Results from the large‐scale Delphi investigations were taken as the basis for the roadmapping. The model of “national needs‐strategic tasks‐key technologies‐development priorities” was promoted and the technology roadmapping at a national level was conducted successfully.