Spillover between commodity and equity benchmarking indices

The commodity and equity derivatives have a close resemblance between them in trade practices and mechanisms, which makes it easy for the investors to combine these two assets classes for building up their portfolio. The diversification of investment among asset classes builds some relation between them. The integration of market within a country is necessary to bring in a smooth and balanced economic growth. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to examine the spillover between the equity and commodity futures markets which will be helpful not only for the investors but also for the policy makers, producers and the regulators.

To examine the spillover between the equity and commodity market, the major benchmarking indices of these markets, namely COMDEX of MCX, Dhaanya of NCDEX and NIFTY 50 of NSE, were chosen. NIFTY 50 index was chosen as representative of equity market due to its composition of most active constituent stocks than any other broad market index of Indian stock market. As the commodity market indices are not been traded, their constituent commodities were taken for the study. Thus, 11 MCX-COMDEX constituents such as Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc, Aluminum, Nickel, Lead, Crude oil, Natural gas, Kapaskhali and Mentha oil and eight NCDEX-Dhaanya constituents such as Castor seed, Chana, Cotton seed oilcake, Jeera, Mustard seed, Refined soy oil, Turmeric and Wheat futures prices were taken against the NIFTY 50 futures prices with daily trading data for ten years starting from January 1, 2006 till December 31, 2015 to analyze their spillover effect. The return series data were used to test the spillover between equity and commodity futures market as it gives the crux of investors’ diversification through the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and verified with Impulse Response Function by testing the null hypothesis, H₀, that there is no return spillover between the equity and commodity futures market.

The investors move from equity to commodity when there is a threat in equity market and vice versa, thereby diversify their risk for those commodities which are vulnerable to global and domestic pressures in the economy. Investigating the spillover between equity and commodity market gives an insight of market integration effect. A nation can achieve its economic growth easily when its markets are integrated.

The commodity indices are still notional indices in the market; therefore, individual constituent commodities of commodities indices were considered with the benchmarking equity futures index, which is one of the limitations of the study.

The integration of market within a country is necessary to bring in a smooth and balanced economic growth.

Most of the past studies dealt only with few commodities and equities and not with the broad-based benchmarking indices. This paves way for enquiry into the commodity and equity markets integration with the major constituent commodities traded in the economy. Hence, this paper looks into the presence of spillover between the equity and commodity markets. The VAR model is verified with the impulse response function which explains the reaction of any dynamic system in response to a pulse change in another. The impulse response function is presented graphically for easy and better understanding.