Can a spatial index of heat-related vulnerability predict emergency service demand in Australian capital cities?
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a spatial model of population vulnerability (VI) capable of identifying areas of high emergency service demand (ESD) during extreme heat events (EHE).
Design/methodology/approach
An index of population vulnerability to EHE was developed from a literature review. Threshold temperatures for EHE were defined using local temperatures, and indicators of increased morbidity. Spearman correlations determined the strength of the relationship between the VI and morbidity during EHE. The VI was mapped providing a visual guide of risk during EHE. Future changes in population vulnerability based on future population projections (2020-2030) were mapped.
Findings
The VI can be used to explain the spatial distribution of ESD during EHE. Mapping future changes in population density/demography indicated several areas currently showing high risk will continue to show increased risk.
Research limitations/implications
The limitations include using outdoor temperatures to determine health-related thresholds. Due to data restrictions three different measures of morbidity were used and aggregated to postal areas.
Practical implications
Identifying areas of increased service demand during EHE allows the development of proactive as-well-as reactive responses to heat. The model uses readily available data, is replicable in larger urban areas.
Social implications
The model allows emergency service providers to work with high risk communities to build resilience to heat exposure and subsequently save lives.
Originality/value
To the authors’ knowledge this triangulated approach using heat thresholds, ESD and projected changes in risk in a spatial framework has not been presented to date.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge funding support from the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. The authors would also like to acknowledge support from Professor Mike Zdeb, University at Albany, School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, State University of New York, USA (Sharing the base code of obtaining travelling distance and travelling time from Google maps).
Citation
Elizabeth Loughnan, M., J. Tapper, N., Phan, T. and A. McInnes, J. (2014), "Can a spatial index of heat-related vulnerability predict emergency service demand in Australian capital cities?", International Journal of Emergency Services, Vol. 3 No. 1, pp. 6-33. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJES-10-2012-0044
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2014, Emerald Group Publishing Limited