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Future scenarios of the collaborative economy: Centrally orchestrated, social bubbles or decentralized autonomous?

Julia A. Fehrer (Graduate School of Management, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand) (Department of Marketing & Service Management, University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany)
Sabine Benoit (Department of Marketing and Retail Management, Surrey Business School, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK)
Lerzan Aksoy (Gabelli School of Business, Fordham University, New York, New York, USA)
Thomas L. Baker (Department of Marketing, Culverhouse College of Business, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA)
Simon J. Bell (Department of Management and Marketing, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia)
Roderick J. Brodie (Department of Marketing, Business School, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand)
Malliga Marimuthu (Department of Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Marketing, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Australia)

Journal of Service Management

ISSN: 1757-5818

Article publication date: 5 September 2018

Issue publication date: 8 November 2018

3062

Abstract

Purpose

The collaborative economy (CE), and within it, collaborative consumption (CC) has become a central element of the global economy and has substantially disrupted service markets (e.g. accommodation and individual transportation). The purpose of this paper is to explore the trends and develop future scenarios for market structures in the CE. This allows service providers and public policy makers to better prepare for potential future disruption.

Design/methodology/approach

Thought experiments – theoretically grounded in population ecology (PE) – are used to extrapolate future scenarios beyond the boundaries of existing observations.

Findings

The patterns suggested by PE forecast developmental trajectories of CE leading to one of the following three future scenarios of market structures: the centrally orchestrated CE, the social bubbles CE, and the decentralized autonomous CE.

Research limitations/implications

The purpose of this research was to create CE future scenarios in 2050 to stretch one’s consideration of possible futures. What unfolds in the next decade and beyond could be similar, a variation of or entirely different than those described.

Social implications

Public policy makers need to consider how regulations – often designed for a time when existing technologies were inconceivable – can remain relevant for the developing CE. This research reveals challenges including distribution of power, insularity, and social compensation mechanisms that need consideration across states and national borders.

Originality/value

This research tests the robustness of assumptions used today for significant, plausible market changes in the future. It provides considerable value in exploring challenges for public policy given the broad societal, economic, and political implications of the present market predictions.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Co-editors Professor Janet McColl-Kennedy, Assistant Professor David Solnet David and Professor Byron Keating and the two reviewers for their thoughtful and constructive comments that enabled us to improve the paper.

Citation

Fehrer, J.A., Benoit, S., Aksoy, L., Baker, T.L., Bell, S.J., Brodie, R.J. and Marimuthu, M. (2018), "Future scenarios of the collaborative economy: Centrally orchestrated, social bubbles or decentralized autonomous?", Journal of Service Management, Vol. 29 No. 5, pp. 859-882. https://doi.org/10.1108/JOSM-04-2018-0118

Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2018, Emerald Publishing Limited

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