The development of strategy scenarios based on prospective hindsight: An approach to strategic decision making

Research focussed on the scenario method has increasingly criticized the widely used intuitive logics (IL) approach to scenario development and introduced enhanced approaches, such as the backwards logic method (BLM) or the antifragile (AF) method, to overcome the restrictions associated with the IL approach. The BLM and the AF method have contributed to the further development of the scenario method by integrating backward reasoning and by increasing the method’s effectiveness for decision making. The purpose of this paper is to build on these ideas and introduce strategy scenarios as a further enhancement of the scenario method that directly applies the benefits of scenario-based planning to strategy development in corporations.

The authors argue that the existing methodologies do not fully integrate the benefits of scenario-based planning for strategic decision making and strategy development, as they mostly aim to develop macroenvironmental scenarios and test organizations’ existing strategies.

The paper suggests that changing the scope of scenario planning from environmental developments to the organization’s strategies themselves can further strengthen the method’s effectiveness for decision making.

The strategy scenario approach provides an enhanced approach to more comprehensively utilize the benefits of scenario-based reasoning for strategic decision making.