The trade and income effects of RCEP: implications for China and Korea

The purpose of this paper is to simulate the effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on trade and income, with a particular interest in the effect on China and Korea.

This paper adopts a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Li et al. (2017) to simulate the effect of RCEP. The CGE model is grounded in the firm heterogeneity theory. Within this framework, the feature of dynamic movements of firms allows the CGE model to capture the extensive margin of trade increase. Aside from that, the CGE model separates foreign direct investment (FDI) from domestic investment, which helps to explain the effect of the removal of FDI barriers.

Results show that RCEP will increase trade of China by 1.5 percent. The income of China will increase by 2.5 percent. The trade increase of Korea will be $8bn, and its income will increase by 0.6 percent. In terms of welfare, China will gain $214bn and Korea will gain $23~35bn, taking 2~3 percent of Korea’s GDP. Also, the reduction of behind-the-border barriers presents very significant effects.

The main contribution of this paper is to quantitatively assess the potential effects of RCEP on trade and income. The positive findings would propel RCEP parties, especially China and Korea, to reach an agreement as soon as possible.