Projections of the future path of the gender wage gap in Great Britain

Abstract

Purpose

The paper attempts to project the future trend of the gender wage gap in Great Britain up to 2031.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical analysis utilises the British Household Panel Study Wave F together with Office for National Statistics (ONS) demographic projections. The methodology combines the ONS projections with assumptions relating to the evolution of educational attainment in order to project the future distribution of human capital skills and consequently the future size of the gender wage gap.

Findings

The analysis suggests that gender wage convergence will be slow, with little female progress by 2031 unless there is a large rise in returns to female experience.

Originality/value

The paper has projected the pattern of male and female skill acquisition together with the associated trend in wages up to 2031.

Citation

Shannon, M. and Kidd, M.P. (2005), "Projections of the future path of the gender wage gap in Great Britain", International Journal of Manpower, Vol. 26 No. 4, pp. 350-363. https://doi.org/10.1108/01437720510609546