A few heads‐ups

Abstract

Purpose

In doing scenario planning, one anticipates a wide range of plausible eventualities, some of which will come to pass. But a short list of issues arises again and again, the possible outcomes of which will affect almost every sphere of the economy and of life.

Findings

What is being (relatively) ignored amid the concern over terrorism is traditional power politics between nation‐states. It is quite likely that these submerged differences will come to the surface at some point in the next two decades. Whether it be over Taiwan, Central Asia, or the Korean peninsula, look for a re‐emergence of traditional “symmetric threat.” A second, related, issue that gets little attention is that of the possibility of a nuclear incident. Third, energy independence is desirable in the USA. for many reasons: economic, ecological, even aesthetic. But there is no reason to believe that it will decrease tensions between the Muslim world and the non‐Muslim world.

Practical implications

Emphasizes the key global issues in scenario planning for the next 20 years.

Originality/value

Of particular value to strategic planners, CEOs, futurists, senior managers.

Citation

Marren, P. (2005), "A few heads‐ups", Journal of Business Strategy, Vol. 26 No. 1, pp. 4-7. https://doi.org/10.1108/02756660510574970