The great game of gotcha

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to highlight the strategic irrelevancy of much prognostication in business.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper provides an opinion column.

Findings

This column shows how far off base recent government predictions of the price of oil have been, and compares this supposed miserable failure to similar (inevitable) failures on the part of the private sector. Single‐point prediction is essentially a sucker's game; though it is demanded by outside authorities, and often must be supplied for tactical reasons, it should never be relied upon for strategic purposes.

Originality/value

Exposes how pointless, from a strategic point‐of‐view, the mass of predictive effort in both private and public sectors can be.

Citation

Marren, P. (2008), "The great game of gotcha", Journal of Business Strategy, Vol. 29 No. 5, pp. 44-46. https://doi.org/10.1108/02756660810902323