Prediction kills

Abstract

Purpose

To emphasize the importance of assessing impacts, rather than focusing on probabilities, in strategy.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper presented is a viewpoint/opinion/column.

Findings

This column attempts to demonstrate that attempts to predict certain types of outcomes through complicated mathematical models can actually be dangerous, because they induce in decision‐makers a false sense of security and take their focus off of the potentially huge impacts of the prediction being wrong.

Originality/value

The paper presents an alternative way of viewing future uncertainty to the dominant spreadsheet‐model quantitative predictive approach.

Citation

Marren, P. (2010), "Prediction kills", Journal of Business Strategy, Vol. 31 No. 1, pp. 59-61. https://doi.org/10.1108/02756661011012796