2011 – Trendspotting for the Next Decade

Citation

Tewari, J.K. (2009), "2011 – Trendspotting for the Next Decade", Journal of Product & Brand Management, Vol. 18 No. 3, pp. 235-236. https://doi.org/10.1108/10610420910957889

If you are looking for insights into the coming decades, rather than volumes of data‐modeling, then this book is for you. The author's claim that its crux was written on a bunch of new model BlackBerries is quite symbolic of this very “with it” author. Concise, humorous, incisive, and insightful, the book is all about seeing the trends before they patently manifest and generate volumes of data for analysis. The chapters are brief, throwing ideas and their justifications at us like arrows of perception, not trying to convince us with pages of reason or data. But then that is what this book is about, the future, which has change as a characteristic. The book's style shows the celebration of new ways of communicating and thinking in a world of text‐speak, and it provides the answer to the vacuum between labored volumes and the cryptograms of text messaging.

In this book Richard Laermer, who is no newcomer to publishing, creates a map rather than a one dimensional destination. He moves the reader toward a “range of possible futures” (p. xii), inspiring us to look ahead. The book is interestingly divided into nine parts, each with ultra short, very readable chapters. The first part “Trendspotting for the Novice” introduces us to the observation that while the 1950s were associated with the issues of black versus white, the 1980s brought “high finance and the roar of technology” (p. 7), and each past decade had its own claim to fame. However, in the 2000s mediocre times set in. In 2011 he sees the coming of change again, the era's mascot being Gumby, the flexible character. He observes the trend that people will “discover that flexibility is among a few basic qualities in which to excel” (p. 14).

In the second section “Advanced Trendspotting”, the author dwells on a variety of subjects, including distinguishing fads from substantive trends and whether there is ever a right way. A suggestion of his rings true – “Stay informed by depersonalizing. Or, stop caring about the same things” (p. 41). One of the biggest needs he sees is the necessity of being broad minded and not making the mistake of “seeking out only the facts that you think you are bound to need” (p. 42).

Richard Laermer titles his next section “The Business of Selling, as Opposed to Shilling” and gives us many gems, with his observations. My personal favorite is: “pushing the send key without thinking things through will become your biggest problem” (p. 52). This is becoming increasingly true “since we are the most networked people in the history of history” … “you can't get away by saying anything sloppily anymore” (p. 50). Another interesting chapter in this section is titled “Why smart sellers can spell Fnord.” This chapter identifies the growing importance of what is “unsaid loudly between the lines” (p. 62), rather than explicit communications. “Fnord is the stuff between words – where we hide all the intention” (p. 65). The chapter is eloquently replete with examples and illustrations from advertising as well as our everyday lives.

Many of the trends that the book mentions do not appear to be major phenomena. Yet it is only the insightful who may realize the true implications of Richard Laermer's observations. When he talks about the “end of bait and switch” (p. 80) as a commercial strategy and the death of the “cc” to your e‐ mail, the author is alluding to a change in attitudes that may distinguish future successful businesses from those that perished on the wayside. Finally, in a changing world where brand‐stable FMCG giants still rule, Richard Laermer warns marketers, “your brand's lifespan will be finite, so be careful of limited shelf life” (p. 110).

The section “Techno‐centric” does not really talk about trends. Rather, it discusses some possibilities, of which we see only a few glimmerings today. Richard Laremer's new world has thin paper like malleable batteries, the concept of Beta versions of software dies a natural death, as consumers learn to accept trial and improvement, and even e‐mail meets its demise, as it is replaced by more sophisticated systems. This last phenomenon is already being prompted by the indiscriminate and unwanted e‐mails that inundate the individual.

The fifth section, “Entertain your diversions” is a short set of social observations. Possibly, some of these represent Richard Laermer's wish list, rather than his anticipations or forecasts. For example, he says “one person's opinion should matter more than a well researched collective huzzah” (p. 168), or, consider his observation that “we will be happy with celebrities who are less fake about their lives” (p. 174). On the other hand, his exhortation “fame is morally neutral, learn how to be more famous” (p. 169), already has many exemplars in the lives of the rich and infamous.

The next three sections of the book deal with the media, language and society. This material does reaffirm some trends that are often discussed, such as the increasing dependence on moving images as a primary means of conveying information, or the “press will stop being meaningful because, well, we know more than it does” (p. 196). Important to the innovator are some of Richard Laermer's axioms, for instance, talking about the iPod he says, “with success comes the inevitable erosion of hipness” … Apple's “cool is finding itself threatened” (p. 223). However, many analysts would say that this is no new or novel trend. It is always difficult to achieve a second glory, or even maintain a pace on a treadmill. Richard Laermer discusses how “we as a society have relied on institutions like organized religion and established cultural traditions to mitigate a meta‐trend giving us a sense of our place in the universe. But these institutions are changing in the face of the increasingly fragmented nature of our pop‐infused, media driven society” (p. 231). Once again, these tendencies are neither so new nor the observations so novel. However, the book's contribution lies in giving these ideas their due importance, rather than pandering to the maverick ideas alone.

The book's last section is exactly what it says it is, an “Epilogue and other chapters I couldn't fit anywhere else” However, when an author feels a pressing need to fit something in, it, in all probability, is extremely important. Some of the terms coined are simply interesting, and we wonder why we have not thought of them before, such as “Practactics –the science of keeping things real” (p. 243). Reflecting on changing attitudes Richard Laermer observes that “it's fake to self deprecate, and in the coming years we're going to be taken to task for it” (p. 282). Perhaps the final gem lies in the short chapter, “Top Seven Mistakes Small Businesses Make.” One of these mistakes struck my fancy – “thinking you know it all.” This presupposition induces us to stop thumbing through business magazines and scanning industry blogs, only to be “left behind, sadly” (p. 292).

While research articles will still spew economic trends and track capital movements, sectoral growth, and factor endowment shifts, the contribution of irreverent authors like Richard Laermer is to understand and set forth in the simple words of changing times, the changing psyche of our industrial world. This book makes interesting reading, whether you have just a few free moments or you are looking for matter to energize your more ruminative hours. At $25.95, it is a worthwhile buy in hardcover.