Whole life sustainability in the design of tourist resorts: A coastal alteration prediction model (CAP) using GIS and statistical tools

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to argue that it is possible to identify a number of physical design properties of plots that are associated with coastal alteration and to develop a predictive model or metric to evaluate the potential alteration caused by that resort. Investors may have economic plot size concerns not considered by planners, tourists may prefer close proximity to deep waters, and urban planners may have failed to realize the importance of certain plot ratios or minimum dimensions etc.

Design/methodology/approach

A combination of geographical information system and statistical tools is used to identify and model these properties. The research uses data from three different resorts in two countries along the Red Sea coast (Hurghada and Safaga in Egypt and Jeddah in Saudi Arabia). Landsat TM7 images are obtained for each location and analysed to detect regions with the largest alteration along the coast using the post‐classification change technique. Physical properties of each village are generated using ArcGIS 9.2 both before and after alteration. Finally, a predictive decision‐support tool for urban planners and environmental auditors is formulated using stepwise discriminant analysis.

Findings

Two‐step cluster analysis and discriminate analysis show that alteration takes place based on factors that include original width and original distance to deep water in three distinct groups. The predictive model that is developed classifies any given resort into one of three clusters, by virtue of their physical design characteristics. This gives a rough prediction of the likely alteration that might take place under a given condition. Subdivision plans that ignore the power of these two factors literally “invite” owners to violate shorelines and encroach on the sea. Planners are urged to join hands with policy makers and developers to formulate guidelines to plot subdivision and environmentally acceptable design solutions to facilitate access to deep water.

Originality/value

Till now, there has been no metric to relate a plot's geometric properties with the encroachment it makes. If such an association could be made, a developer's resort plans may be evaluated to predict the degree by which an encroachment is likely. The model can be used to identify resorts whose properties present a risk to shorelines, dredge or fill to maximize usable land. Two benefits may be thought of for this approach. First, the model helps urban planners develop a sustainable coastal area by bearing in mind the needs of tourist‐developers as well as the properties of their adjacent coast. Second, the factors can be used to rationalize building guidelines and land use regulations to minimize such risk.

Citation

Ismail, A. and Khalil, H. (2010), "Whole life sustainability in the design of tourist resorts: A coastal alteration prediction model (CAP) using GIS and statistical tools", Management of Environmental Quality, Vol. 21 No. 1, pp. 108-121. https://doi.org/10.1108/14777831011010892