A multi-dimensional joint confidence limit approach to mixed mode planning for round-the-clock projects

Abstract

Purpose

Good planning is key to good project performance. However, for the sub-class of round-the-clock projects requiring mixed mode planning a suitable planning approach does not exist. The purpose of this paper is to develop and validate such an approach.

Design/methodology/approach

Development of the approach builds on a synthesis and extensions of previous work related to projects with round-the-clock schedules, containing multiple workflows (sequential/cyclical). This approach considers the interdependence among shift-schedule, productivity, calendar duration, and risk registers. It quantifies the confidence in those strategies using a Monte Carlo and a multi-dimensional joint confidence limit (JCL) simulation platform.

Findings

n of workflows and their interdependencies. Also, the platform results show that the deviation between the deterministic outcomes and the simulated ones are a good indicator when dealing with projects with minimal tolerance for possible imposed mitigation strategies (e.g. round-the-clock projects).

Research limitations/implications

The validation of the approach is limited to a multi-billion dollar nuclear refurbishment case study and functional demonstration. The applicable class of projects is limited, and includes those for which failure of cost, schedule, or quality implies project failure.

Originality/value

It is anticipated that the proposed approach will assist with developing a realistic planning strategy by incorporating various factors and constraints under the impact of risks and uncertainty. This may lead to a more reliable determination of outcomes for round-the-clock projects.

Citation

Shahtaheri, M., Haas, C.T. and Salimi, T. (2017), "A multi-dimensional joint confidence limit approach to mixed mode planning for round-the-clock projects", Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, Vol. 24 No. 1, pp. 40-60. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-10-2015-0165