The effects of ethnic conflict and foreign fighters on conflict duration: a statistical analysis

Abstract

Purpose

Foreign fighters (FFs) appeared in at least approximately one-fourth of conflicts over the past 200 years. This study aims to reveal the impact of FFs in conflicts, whether they resolve the conflict faster or they drag out the conflict, and investigate the single and simultaneous impacts of ethnic conflict (EC) and FFs on conflict duration (CD).

Design/methodology/approach

The data set consisting of 352 conflicts from 1818 to 2022 was collected from different sources. Logarithmic Linear Regression with Dummy Variables and the Cox Regression models were used to check the hypotheses.

Findings

One of the key findings of this analysis is that the use of FFs extends the duration of conflicts. Similarly, conflicts involving EC increase CD. Additionally, the simultaneous effect of FFs and EC together increases the CD much more, and it is noted CD significantly varies regionally.

Research limitations/implications

As this study focused on the factors that affect the duration of the conflict in the hypotheses, the findings only can contribute to explaining the duration rather than factors such as the number of casualties and economic losses. The authors believe that policy and key decision-makers can benefit from the results and think twice before deciding to use FFs in conflicts.

Originality/value

This study offers a separate and simultaneous effect of EC and FFs on CD, which provides some empirical contributions to conflict management by filling the gap in this area.

Citation

Pehlivan, O. and Gokmen, Y. (2023), "The effects of ethnic conflict and foreign fighters on conflict duration: a statistical analysis", International Journal of Conflict Management, Vol. 34 No. 3, pp. 598-622. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCMA-02-2023-0032