Production and production over-supply in construction: estimating unsold stock in Italy

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of the article is to identify the limitations and critical issues in the way information in the real estate sector in Italy is currently managed, and propose the principles of a method that would provide information and comparison of the phenomenon of over-supply and non-rational land use. This study is based on a series of assumptions, the first of which is a definition of “unsold”, deemed to mean “the amount of new housing units neither occupied nor sold nor rented”. In effect, unsold stock can be considered as over-supply of construction.

Design/methodology/approach

The article identifies the critical aspects in the determination of unsold real estate in Italy, starting from the available data and research already carried out; the results are often contradictory. The comparison with programming systems of building production adopted in other countries allows identification of the guidelines that can be used to better understand and combat the phenomenon.

Findings

The assessment of the state -of-the-art provides a clear picture of the shortcomings and potential of the tools used to date to meet the need of studying a complex phenomenon with many obscure points. Following the empirical analysis comes out a picture of inefficiencies due to the poor quality of information, as well as the reluctance of data-sharing and -integration procedures by the institutional and market players.

Research limitations/implications

The research produces solutions addressed to the Italian situation, but it identifies systems and methods used in other countries.

Practical implications

The article suggests the collection systems and management information that can be used for a more accurate knowledge of unsold real estate.

Social implications

The article focuses on some of the limits of the Italian real estate market, highlighting the need for greater transparency and how this can contribute to a more conscious approach to the market.

Originality/value

The article seeks to provide the necessary answers to those who must understand the reasons of harmful effects for the market, such as overproduction; besides some models focused on three areas – the procedures, the organization and the market – are also proposed.

Citation

Ciaramella, A. and Celani, A. (2014), "Production and production over-supply in construction: estimating unsold stock in Italy", International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Vol. 7 No. 4, pp. 506-523. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-07-2013-0042