Comparative analysis of different approaches to the Ukrainian residential property market evolution modelling and its forecast for the years 2019–2024
International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
ISSN: 1753-8270
Article publication date: 27 February 2024
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of various approaches to the residential property market evolution modelling and to examine the macroeconomic fundamentals that have shaped this market development in Ukraine in recent years.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses a comprehensive data set encompassing relevant macroeconomic indicators and historical apartment prices. Multifactor linear regression (MLR) and ridge regression (RR) models are constructed to identify the impact of multiple predictors on apartment prices. Additionally, the ARIMAX model integrates time series analysis and external factors to enhance modelling and forecasting accuracy.
Findings
The investigation reveals that MLR and RR yield accurate predictions by considering a range of influential variables. The hybrid ARIMAX model further enhances predictive performance by fusing external indicators with time series analysis. These findings underscore the effectiveness of a multidimensional approach in capturing the complexity of housing price dynamics.
Originality/value
This research contributes to the real estate modelling and forecasting literature by providing an analysis of multiple linear regression, RR and ARIMAX models within the specific context of property price prediction in the turbulent Ukrainian real estate market. This comprehensive analysis not only offers insights into the performance of these methodologies but also explores their adaptability and robustness in a market characterized by evolving dynamics, including the significant influence of external geopolitical factors.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The final stage of this paper preparation has been fulfilled with the kind support of the Leicester University School of Business, UK, under the British Academy-funded project “Researchers at Risk”. Appearance of presented summarized results on the comparison of different approaches to Ukrainian residential property market evolution modelling and the forecast could not have been possible without such valuable support.
Citation
Yakubovsky, V. and Zhuk, K. (2024), "Comparative analysis of different approaches to the Ukrainian residential property market evolution modelling and its forecast for the years 2019–2024", International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-11-2023-0160
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2024, Emerald Publishing Limited