Changes in the size of domestic tourists in mainland China under the impact of COVID-19

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the changes of the scale of urban tourists in mainland China under the impact of COVID-19 and, specifically, the following questions: how did the scale of domestic tourists change nationwide and in the seven geographic regions? What are the differences in the changes among the seven geographic regions? What are the changes in the hot spot areas and spatial clustering of domestic tourists across the country?

Design/methodology/approach

Using the data of domestic tourist arrivals in 337 cities in mainland China from 2018 to 2021, this research analyzes the absolute differences and relative differences in the scale of domestic tourists nationwide and in seven geographic divisions with the help of indicators such as range analysis, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and explores the changes in the hot spot areas and spatial concentration degree of the spatial scale of domestic tourists nationwide under the influence of the epidemic using kernel density analysis and spatial auto-correlation analysis.

Findings

The absolute differences in all seven geographical divisions continue to increase during 2018–2021. The domestic tourism in southwest China is extremely uneven. Absolute differences in the northwest and northeast regions are relatively small, and the development in attracting domestic tourists is more balanced. Relative differences in southwest China are comparatively large, with the trend of uneven development being obvious. The northeast, northwest and eastern regions of China are small, and the development is more balanced. The popularity of domestic tourism in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, as well as the Yangtze River Delta region, continues to decline and then pick up in 2021. The inland southwest region became a new domestic tourism hot spot in 2021. The size of domestic tourists from 2018 to 2021 in mainland China cities shows a significant positive spatial correlation, and there is a spatial agglomeration phenomenon, but some regional agglomeration types change from 2018 to 2021.

Research limitations/implications

The impact of the epidemic on the number and spatial scale of domestic tourism in China has been clarified, which makes up for the comparison of domestic tourism changes before and after the epidemic. A clear understanding of the changes in the number and spatial scale of domestic tourists in different regions after the epidemic is conducive to the development of domestic tourism revitalization strategies in accordance with the actual situation of each province and promotes the internal circulation of Chinese tourism.

Practical implications

This paper tries to clarify the quantitative scale of domestic tourism in different regions after the epidemic, which is conducive to the development of domestic tourism revitalization strategies in cities in different regions according to regional characteristics and the actual situation of each province and to promote the healthy operation of the internal circulation of tourism in China. This paper also tries to show the changes of domestic tourism market hot spots, agglomeration conditions changes before and after the outbreak and the clarity of tourists’ preference space changes.

Originality/value

Scale of domestic tourists; Absolute difference; Relative difference; Spatial hot spot distribution; Spatial agglomeration change

目的

本文旨在探寻疫情影响下中国大陆城市游客规模演化规律, 具体而言, 疫情影响下, 全国及七大地理分区的国内游客量规模变化如何？七大地理地区的变化有何差异？以及疫情影响下, 全国国内游客空间规模的热点区域和空间集聚程度有何变化？

研究设计与方法

利用2018-2021年中国大陆337各城市的国内游客量数据, 借助极差、标准差、变异系数、赫芬达尔指等指标分析全国及七大地理分区国内游客规模的绝对差异和相对差异; 借助核密度分析、空间自相关分析等ArcGIS分析工具, 探寻疫情影响下全国国内游客空间规模的热点区域和空间集聚程度的变化情况。

研究发现

①绝对差异方面, 七大地理分区的绝对差异均持续增大。西南地区的游客量的绝对差异巨大, 国内游发展极不均衡。西北地区、东北地区绝对差异相对较小, 在吸引国内游客方面发展较为均衡。②相对差异方面, 西南地区的国内游发展相对差异较大, 发展不均衡趋势明显; 东北地区、西北地区、华东地区的国内游发展相对差异较小, 发展较为均衡。③热点区域变化方面, 京津冀地区、长三角地区的国内旅游热度持续下降, 在2021年有所回升; 内陆西南地区在2021年成为新的国内游热点区域。④2018年至2021年城市国内游客量规模均呈现出显著的空间正相关的关系, 存在着空间集聚现象, 但部分区域集聚类型在2018到2021年间发生变化。

研究价值

①理论意义：明晰了疫情对中国国内旅游人次的数量规模和空间规模的影响, 弥补了当前疫情前后国内旅游业变化对比的研究; 阐明了疫情前后中国城市国内游客空间格局的变化, 拓展了研究情景, 丰富了中国旅游业时空变化的相关研究。②实践意义：明晰了疫后不同地区国内旅游人次的数量规模和空间规模变化情况, 以及国内旅游市场热点变化和游客空间偏好变化, 有利于各地区城市对症下药, 制定符合各省份实际情况的国内旅游业振兴策略, 促进中国旅游业内循环。

Citation

Zhong, L. and Dong, Y. (2023), "Changes in the size of domestic tourists in mainland China under the impact of COVID-19", International Journal of Tourism Cities, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJTC-07-2022-0174