Terrorist risk assessment in the regions of the Russian Federation

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of the paper is to identify the characteristics of terrorist risks in the regional aspect by using the example of the Russian Federation.

Design/methodology/approach

The cluster analysis revealed four groups of regions that differ in the level of terrorist risk. Then, based on comparison of regression analysis results for the selected regions and the country as a whole, a characteristic of factors contributing to and preventing terrorism was presented.

Findings

The research results showed that the main problems affecting the growth of terrorism, both at the national and regional levels, are the low level of economic freedom, as well as high political instability, crime rates, corruption and digital globalization processes. Therefore, when developing and implementing a counter-terrorism policy, more attention should be paid to these areas.

Originality/value

Assessing terrorist risk across national regions is a relevant problem. The identification of patterns in the commission of terrorist attacks and their regional distribution are of great importance for national counter-terrorism strategies.

Citation

Novikov, A.V., Koshkin, A.P. and Abramov, R.A. (2021), "Terrorist risk assessment in the regions of the Russian Federation", Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, Vol. 13 No. 1, pp. 33-49. https://doi.org/10.1108/JACPR-08-2020-0534