Local elections compound UK ruling party’s woes

Significance

The party also lost key mayoralty contests and a by-election in Blackpool South that featured the third-largest swing from the Conservatives to the opposition Labour Party since 1945. These votes were the last electoral test before the next general election, which will likely take place in late 2024.

Impacts

• Should Labour win but fall short of a majority, a coalition with the Liberal Democrats would be the most likely scenario.
• Debt reduction imperatives and higher borrowing costs will constrain the next government’s capacity to invest in the economy.
• Divisions within the Conservative Party, over issues such as the EU and economic policy, will persist long-term.