Iraqi Kurds’ economic trap will drive instability

Significance

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) emphasised it had sent the federal finance ministry a promised full list of employees on April 21; however, Baghdad sources said disbursement had been postponed because of a significant increase in the amounts requested by the KRG.

Impacts

• Either holding or again postponing the much-delayed June elections could cause a major government crisis.
• The end of oil exports has further reduced the transparency of revenues from the limited amount of oil sold or smuggled locally.
• Mounting KDP-PUK divisions could endanger international donors’ support to the ‘unified’ peshmerga militias.