“Hold them or fold them:” evidence-based decisions to discontinue investigations of non-domestic minor violence

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a “maintenance pathway” for ensuring a low false negative rate in closing investigations unlikely to lead to a clearance (detection).

Design/methodology/approach

A randomised controlled experiment testing solvability factors for non-domestic cases of minor violence.

Findings

A random selection of 788 cases, of which 428 would have been screened out, were sent forward for full investigation. The number of cases actually detected was 22. A total of 19 of these were from the 360 recommended for allocation. This represents an improvement of accuracy over the original tests of the model three years earlier.

Research limitations/implications

This study shows how the safety of an investigative triage tool can be checked on a continuous basis for accuracy in predicting the cases unlikely to be solved if referred for full investigations.

Practical implications

This safety check pathway means that many more cases can be closed after preliminary investigations, thus saving substantial time for working on cases more likely to yield a detection if sufficient time is put into the cases.

Social implications

More offenders may be caught and brought to justice by using triage with a safety backstop for accurate forecasting.

Originality/value

This is the first published study of a maintenance pathway based on a random selection of cases that would otherwise not have been investigated. If widely applied, it could yield far greater time for police to pursue high-harm, serious violence.

Citation

McFadzien, K. and Sherman, L.W. (2021), "“Hold them or fold them:” evidence-based decisions to discontinue investigations of non-domestic minor violence", Policing: An International Journal, Vol. 44 No. 4, pp. 643-654. https://doi.org/10.1108/PIJPSM-04-2021-0061