A_climate_of_conflict

Citation

(2009), "A_climate_of_conflict", Disaster Prevention and Management, Vol. 18 No. 3. https://doi.org/10.1108/dpm.2009.07318cab.004

A_climate_of_conflict

Article Type: About the authors From: Disaster Prevention and Management, Volume 18, Issue 3

US planners are beginning to consider the disaster impacts of gradual-onset climate change as a catalyst for civil and international conflict.

In The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the authors write that even under the lowest expectations for climate change by 2040, an average global temperature increase of 1.3 degrees Celsius, “National security implications include: heightened internal and cross-border tensions caused by large-scale migrations; conflict sparked by resource scarcity, particularly in the weak and failing states of Africa; increased disease proliferation, which will have economic consequences; and some geopolitical reordering as nations adjust to shifts in resources and prevalence of disease.”

“Across the board, the ways in which societies react to climate change will refract through underlying social, political, and economic factors.”

In the report A Climate of Conflict: The Links Between Climate Change, Peace and War (www.international-alert.org/) authors Dan Smith and Janani Vivekananda wrote for International Alert, “Many of the world’s poorest countries and communities thus face a double-headed problem: that of climate change and violent conflict.”

“There is a real risk that climate change will compound the propensity for violent conflict, which in turn will leave communities poorer, less resilient and less able to cope with the consequences of climate change. There are 46 countries – home to 2.7 billion people – in which the effects of climate change interacting with economic, social and political problems will create a high risk of violent conflict.”

Handled properly, however, dealing with climate change has the potential to aid in conflict resolution. The International Alert report suggests the steps for adaptation to climate change can work hand-in-hand with peacemaking efforts. The authors write, “A society that can develop adaptive strategies for climate change in this way is well equipped to avoid armed conflict. And a society that can manage conflicts and major disagreements over serious issues without a high risk of violence is well equipped to adapt successfully to the challenge of climate change. Climate change could even reconcile otherwise divided communities by posing a threat against which to unite and tasks on which to cooperate.”

(Extracted from Natural Hazards Observer, March 2009.)