Megadisasters: The Science of Predicting the Next Catastrophe

Citation

Diacu, F. (2010), "Megadisasters: The Science of Predicting the Next Catastrophe", Disaster Prevention and Management, Vol. 19 No. 4, pp. 517-517. https://doi.org/10.1108/dpm.2010.19.4.517.5

Mathematician Diacu begins his exploration of the science behind prediction with a quote that ought to be everyone's favorite, from physicist Niels Bohr: “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” In this entertaining book, Diacu explores the state of scientific forecasting of disasters – tsunamis, earthquakes, pandemics, economic disasters, hurricanes, and others.

Diacu devotes a chapter to each issue, describing briefly the history of the science behind it, occasionally including personal details about people who have been intimately involved.

As a mathematician, Diacu is interested in the models used to attempt to predict the behavior of natural systems, and of chaos theory. He concludes that for many systems, the models simply do not provide enough detail for reliable prediction:

Some recent research shows that chaos is less responsible for the errors of the current meteorological forecasts than are the models themselves […] Nevertheless, chaos is still a factor of computational error for many classes of differential equations.

There has been quite a stir recently about the possibility of predicting earthquakes at least well enough to give a few moments warning. Diacu is less optimistic:

The most elusive predictions are those based on vague models, as it happens in seismology. Without knowing the exact position of tectonic plates and the way they move, we are unable to come up with precise models. So far, the best we can do is enforce building codes in unstable seismic zones.