World Robotics 2003

Citation

(2004), "World Robotics 2003", Industrial Robot, Vol. 31 No. 1. https://doi.org/10.1108/ir.2004.04931aab.013

World Robotics 2003

World Robotics 2003

Is recovery around the corner? Robot orders in first half of 2003 were up by 26 per cent to the highest level ever recorded.

World wide growth in the period 2003-2006 forecast at an average annual rate of 7.4 per cent, Household robots are starting to take off.

Below are some of the many questions answered by the newly released survey World Robotics 2003 produced by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) in cooperation with the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). The following questions and answers provide an executive summary of this 330 page in-depth analysis.

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  How did the economic slow-down in 2002 affect the robot business? The world market fell by 12 per cent as a result of falling demand in all major markets. However, robots did much better than many other similar types of investment goods. Machine tools, for instance, fell in major markets three times as much as robots, says Jan Karlsson, responsible for the UNECE/IF publication. The robots market in the United States fell by 8 per cent by close to 11 per cent in Japan and by 16 per cent in the European Union. The drop in the European Union market should, however, be seen in the light of the fact that with the exception of 1997, When the market fell by 1 per cent the European Union has had market growth since 1994 and, except for 2001, double digit growth.

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  What about the trends in 2003 and the forecast for 2003-2006? The UNECE/IFR quarterly survey on order intake of industrial robots, which includes most of the World's largest companies, showed that worldwide order intake increased by 26 per cent compared with the same period in 2002. It was the highest order intake of industrial robots ever recorded, worldwide and in all regions, except in North America where it was the third best half year recorded. The order intake, by regions, of industrial robots during the first half of 2003, compared with the same period in 2002, was as follows:

North America +35 per cent, Europe +25, per cent, Asia +18 per cent, Other regions +19 per cent

These figures indicate that a strong recovery is in sight in the investment propensity in industry. The results for the first half of 2003 point to total sales of over 80,000 robots in 2003, compared with 68,600 in 2002.

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  How many robots are now working out there in industry? Worldwide at least 770,000 units (possibly the real stock could be well over 1 million units), of which 350,000 in Japan, 233,000 in the European Union and about 104,000 in North America. In Europe, Germany is in the lead with just under 105,000 units, followed by Italy with 47,000, France with 24,000. Spain with 18,000 and the United Kingdom with 14,000.

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  What is the forecast for 2005? A conservative forecast points to some 875,000 units worldwide, of which 333,000 in Japan, 303,000 in the European Union and 135,000 in North America.

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  Is Japan's lead position in automation eroding? Robot business was booming in Japan in the 1980s and early1990s. The optimism was unlimited. It seemed as if everything that could be robotized was robotized. Since the middle of the 1990s, the momentum in the robot business has moved to Europe and North America. In 2002, the robot stock increased by 6 per cent in both regions. In Japan it has steadily been falling since 1998.

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  Why invest in robots? In the last decade, the performance of robots has increased enormously while at the same time their prices have been plummeting. A robot sold in 2002 would have cost less than a fifth of what a robot with the same performance would have cost in 1990. In the last few years, the price decrease of robots has, however, started to level off. Profitability studies have shown that it is not unusual for robots to have a pay-back period as short as 1-2 years.

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  And not hire people? In Germany, for instance, the prices of robots relative to labour costs have fallen from 100 in 1990 to 34 in 2002 and to 17 when considering the radically improved performance of robots. In North America, the relative price dropped to 24 and to about 12 if quality improvements are considered. "Falling or stable robot prices, increasing labour costs and continuously improved technology are major driving forces which speak for continued massive robot investment in industry", concludes Jan Karlsson. Even in developing countries like Brazil, Mexico and China, robot investment are starting to take off at an impressive rate.

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  If robots are so profitable why is there not an even stronger rush to invest? Robots are not products to be acquired "over the counter". In order to reap the benefits of robots, potential user companies must have sufficient in-house technological know-how as well as thorough comprehension of their production processes.

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  How many robots per employee in the manufacturing industry? About 310 per 10,000 employees in Japan, 135 in Germany, 109 in Italy, 91 in Sweden and between 50 and 70 in Finland, France, Spain, Benelux and the United States (the figure for Japan includes all types of robots while for all the other countries only multipurpose industrial robots are included. The figures are therefore not comparable).

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  In the car industry? In Japan, Italy and Germany, there is more than one robot per ten production workers.

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  Are we seeing any service robots in our homes? At the end of 2002, more than 50,000 autonomous vacuum cleaners and lawn- mowing robots were in operation. By the end of 2006, a tenfold increase is predicted.

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  How are the service robots for professional use doing? Medical robots, underwater robots, surveillance robots, demolition robots and many other types of robots for carrying out a multitude of tasks are doing very well. A stock of some 19,000 units was estimated at the end of 2002. In the period 2003- 2006, another 30,000 units are projected to be added to the stock.

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  In the long run service robots will be everyday tools for mankind. They will not only clean our floors, mow our lawns and guard our homes but also assist old and handicapped people with sophisticated interactive equipment, carry out surgery, inspect pipes and sites that are hazardous to people, fight fire and bombs and can be used in many other applications described in the present issue of World Robotics 2003.

The facts

World market fell by 12 per cent in 2002 ...

World wide sales of multipurpose industrial robots peaked in 1990 when they reached over 80,000 units. Following the recession in 1991-1993, worldwide sales fell to about fekk ti 53,000 units in 1993. The world robot market then started a period of strong recovery, which peaked in 1997 when it reached a level of 82,000 units. In 1998, however, sales plunged by 15 per cent to just under 69,000 units. The market recovered sharply in 1999 with sales of nearly 80,000 units, an increase of almost 15 per cent over 1998. In 2000, growth accelerated to 24 per cent attaining a record of almost 99,000 units. In 2001 and 2002 however, the world market fell by 21 and 12 per cent, respectively, reaching 68,600 units.

... as a result of falling demand in all major markets

After 2 years of falling or stagnant sales, there was a sharp recovery in Japan in 2000. Sales of all types of industrial robots surged by 32 per cent over 1999, reaching almost 47,000 units. As from 2001, data for Japan exclude almost all dedicated robots (only dedicated robots for machining are included). Data for 2000 and 2001 are thus not comparable. Between 2001 and 2002, however, sales in Japan fell by almost 11 per cent to about 25,400 units.

From 1995 to 2000, the robot market in the United States was booming every second year and, in the years between, it was flat or falling. In 1995, 1997 and 1999 it increased by 32, 28, and 37 per cent, respectively. By contrast in 1996 and 1998, the market dropped by 5 and 13 per cent, respectively, while in 2000 it was almost flat (+1 per cent). However, the highest sale of industrial robots ever recorded was in 2000 when in reached nearly 13,000 units. In 2001, the market fell by nearly 17 per cent to 10,800 units followed by another drop of 8 per cent in 2002 to just under 10,000 units.

... but robots did much better than many other types of investment goods

While the market for industrial robots fell by 8 per cent in the United States, the market for machine tools fell by as much as 36 per cent. In Japan and Germany, the same pattern was prevailing. Machine tools fell by 32 and 20 per cent, respectively, while robots "only" fell by 11 and 7 per cent.

After years of booming sales the robot market in the European Union fell by 16 per cent ...

In the European union, sales of multipurpose industrial robots rose by 19 per cent in 2000 to 29,800 units. In 2001, sales continued to grow but by modest 3 per cent reaching 30,700 units. With the exception of 1997, when the market fell by 1 per cent the European Union has had market growth since 1994 and, except for 2001, double digit growth. This came to a halt in 2002, when the market fell by 16 per cent to just under 26,000 units. Almost all EU countries showed a falling demand. In the United Kingdom, the market plummeted by as much as 61 per cent.

Is recovery around the corner? The first half of 2003 was the best first half ever recorded for robotics

Looking at the first half of 2003, the UNECE/ IFR quarterly survey on order intake of industrial robots, which includes most of the world's largest companies, showed that worldwide order intake increased by 26 per cent compared with the same period in 2002. It was the highest order intake of industrial robots ever recorded. The order intake, by regions, of industrial robots during the first half of 2003, compared with the same period in 2002, was as follows:

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  North America +35 per cent,

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  Europe +25 per cent,

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  Asia +18 per cent,

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  Other regions +19 per cent

These figures indicate that a strong recovery is in sight in the investment propensity in industry. They also give solid support to the forecasts described earlier. In fact, these results for the first half of 2003 points to total sales of over 80,000 robots in 2003. compared with 68,600 in 2002 (it should be noted that the forecast of merely 73,400 units for 2003, is part of a trend forecast for the whole period 2003-2006 and not a short-term forecast as presented here).

The publication World Robotics 2003 – Statistics, market Analysis, Forecasts, Case Studies and profitability of Robot Investment is available, quoting Sales No. GV.E.03.016 or ISBN No. 92-1-101059-4, through the usual United Nations sales agents in various countries or from the United Nations office at Geneva (Sales and Marketing Section, United Nations, Palais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland. Tel: +41(0)22 917 26 00/26 14; Fax: +41(0)22 917 00 27; E-mail: unpubli@unog.ch) priced at US$130.

For more information about the publication, contact: Mr. Jan Karlsson, Statistical Division, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), Palais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland. Tel: +41(0)22 917 32 85; Fax: +41(0)22 917 00 40; E-mail: ian.karrlsson@unece.org or International Federation of Robotics (IFR), Statistics Department, c/o VDMA Robotics+Automation, Lyoner Str. 18, D-60528 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Tel: +49 (69) 6603 1502; Fax: +49 (69) 6603 2502; E-mail: oudrun.litzenberger@vdma.org