World robotics 2006 executive summary

Citation

(2007), "World robotics 2006 executive summary", Industrial Robot, Vol. 34 No. 2. https://doi.org/10.1108/ir.2007.04934bab.008

World robotics 2006 executive summary

World robotics 2006 executive summary

2005 world robot market

Total world-wide sales:

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  126,700 units, up 30 per cent on 2004.World total stock of operational industrial robots:

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  923,000 units, 9 per cent greater than 2004.

World market surged by 30 per cent in 2005 ...

The world market peaked in 2005, reaching about 126,700 newly installed industrial robots, 30 per cent more than in 2004. This is the highest number ever recorded for one year. Nevertheless, developments were quite dissimilar in the three large industrial regions of Europe, America and Asia. While robotics investment boomed in Asia and America, order intakes in Europe were far more moderated. The automotive industry affected the results in all three regions. In Asia, in addition to the automotive sector, strong demand from the electronic components, the communication equipment and the computer industries reinforced the gain in market share already seen in 2004 (Figure 1).

Figure 1 Estimated yearly installations of industrial robots

In 2005, more than 76,000 robots were supplied to Asian countries (including Australia and New Zealand), about 45 per cent more than in 2004, as a result of strong investment within the automotive industry and the electrical/ electronics industry. The increase seen in the electrical/electronics industry was influenced by a more accurate coverage of industrial robots in general, and in particular of those employed in these industries.

In Japan, installations sky-rocketed to the highest number since 1991, 50,500 units, 36 per cent more than in 2004. This was not only the result of replacement investments by the automotive industry and the electric machinery and components (incl. semiconductors and LCD) industry: but supplies to the communication equipment industry and the metal and machinery industry also rose remarkably.

In 2005, about 13,000 industrial robots were ordered for the Republic of Korea, about 138 per cent more than in 2004. This was the result of strong demand from the electrical machinery and electronic components industry and more complete reporting on robots used in this particular sector. China became the third largest robot market in Asia, with 4,500 newly installed robots, about 28 per cent more than in 2004. Growth was slower than in 2004. In China, the automotive industry is still the predominant user of industrial robots. Installations in the other Asian markets, including, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan (Province of China), Thailand and Vietnam, increased by about 58 per cent on average. Most of these markets are still relatively small, but are gaining in importance as a result of expanding investments by the automotive industry.

In the Americas, robotics investments sky-rocketed by 40 per cent, to 21,555 units. Asian car makers, in particular, have made significant investments to enlarge and improve their US and Canadian production sites. However, this was also emulated by their US and European competitors within the automotive industry, who sought to preserve their respective shares of the North American market.

When deliveries to Mexico, Argentina and Brazil are included, the automotive industry in the Americas installed 47 per cent more industrial robots in 2005 than in 2004. However, other industries also increased their orders of robots remarkably. Demand from the metal industry (including machinery, metal products and basic metals) increased by 52 per cent, the chemical industry by 41 per cent, the electrical/electronics industry by 34 per cent.

The year 2005 saw installations of industrial robots in Europe decline by 2 per cent when compared to 2004. This can be largely attributed to a lull in investments by the automotive industry and its suppliers in Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Sweden. In contrast, sales augmented in Eastern European countries and Great Britain. The figures here, however, are still somewhat low when compared to the major European locations. Only in France was a slight increase in installations within the automotive industry achieved. Car makers' purchases of industrial robots fell by 28 per cent in Europe as a whole.

Outside the automotive sector (including parts suppliers), demand for industrial robots is steadily increasing: plastics and rubber, food and packaging, household appliances, wood and furniture, glass and ceramic products are all areas where expansion has been seen. The figures here do not yet outweigh demand from the automotive industry and were therefore, unable to compensate for the sharp fall in this industry. These areas experienced a combined growth rate of 17 per cent in 2005. In Europe, about 30 per cent more robots were installed in the food industry than in both America and Asia. In general, robot systems in industries other than the automotive industry and the electrical/electronics industry are more established in Europe than in all other regions (Figure 2).

Figure 2 Estimated yearly supply of industrial robots at year-end in total world by main industries 2004-2005

Total accumulated yearly sales, measured since industrial robots started to be introduced in industry at the end of the 1960s, amounted to more than 1,600,000 units at the end of 2005, including, as mentioned before, the dedicated industrial robots installed in Japan up to and including 2000. Many of the early robots, however, have by now been taken out of service. The stock of industrial robots in actual operation is, therefore, lower. Based on the assumptions made in Chapter I, IFR estimate the total world-wide stock of operational industrial robots at the end of 2005 between a minimum of 923,000 units and a possible maximum of 1,120,000 units.

The minimum figure above is, as was discussed in Chapter I, derived on the assumption that the average length of service life is 12 years. A UNECE/IFR pilot study has indicated that the average service life might in fact be as long as 15 years, which would result in a world-wide stock of 1,200,000 units.

When the minimum 2005 stock of almost 923,000 units is compared with the 850,000 units at the end of 2004, it represents an increase of 9 per cent.

Forecasts for 2006-2009

The world market for industrial robots is projected to decrease from 126,700 units in 2005 to 110,600 in 2006. From 2007, it will rise by a yearly average of 5.6 per cent to 130,150 in 2009.

Demand from the automotive industry will plummet in 2006 in North America, Japan and the Republic of Korea because of the high investments made in 2005. In Western Europe, investments by the automotive industry already decelerated in 2004 and 2005. In 2006, a further slight decrease can be expected. The decrease in 2006, will be offset to some extent by orders from the non- automotive industry and investments by the automotive industry in most emerging markets.

Robust growth in robot installations world-wide can be expected between 2007 and 2009. The automotive industry is set to begin production of new model cycles, investments in emerging markets will continue, and installations in general industry – especially the packaging, the food, the rubber and plastics and the machinery industries – will grow all over the world as a result of technical developments. Improvements in robot technology, such as new control systems and safety systems to permit interactive operations of man and machine, as well as improved sensor technology and robot- vision applications, will promote further robot installations.

In terms of units, it is estimated that the world-wide stock of operational industrial robots will increase from about 922,900 units at the end of 2005 to 1,112,500 at the end of 2009, representing an average annual growth rate of 4.9 per cent.

Robot prices are falling at a lower rate ...

The price of industrial robots and even more so their relative price, i.e. the price of industrial robots for a given set of performance indicators in relation to labour costs, have fallen sharply between 1990 and 2000. After 2000, nominal prices stopped falling. Although quality adjusted prices and relative prices will continue to fall, they are falling at a lower rate than before. This is the result of the expansion in applications for industrial robots in sectors other than the automotive industry. Bespoke solutions for particular operations will stabilise robot prices, and may even result in higher returns.

Prices of industrial robots, expressed in constant 1990 US dollars, have fallen from an index 100 to 54 in the period 1990-2005, without taking into account that robots installed in 2005 had a much higher performance than those installed in 1990. When taking into account quality changes, it was estimated that the index would have fallen to 22.

In the same period (1990-2005), the index of labour compensation in the American business sector increased from 100 to 179. This implies that the relative prices of robots fell from 100 in 1990 to 23 in 2005 without quality adjustment, and to ten when taking into account quality improvements in robots. Other major robot using countries had similar developments in their relative robot prices (Figure 3).

Figure 3 Price index of industrial robots for international comparison (based on 1990 $ conversion rate), with and without quality adjustment

Measurements of robot density based on the total number of persons employed

In 2001-2005, employment stagnated while the stock of robots continued to increase, except in Japan, resulting in a further boost to robot density.

In Japan and in the Republic of Korea, which collect data on all types of industrial robots and are, therefore, not comparable with other countries, have a quite high density of robot installations. In 2005, 352 robots in Japan and 173 robots in the Republic of Korea were in operation per 10,000 persons employed in the manufacturing industry.

With 171 robots per 10,000 employed in the manufacturing industry Germany is the country with highest robot density in Europe, followed by Italy with 130 and Sweden with 117. In Finland the density amounted to 99, followed by the USA with 90, Spain with 89, and France with 84 robots per 10,000 employed in the manufacturing industry. The densities ranged between 67 and 44 in the Austria, Benelux, Denmark, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. In Norway the density amounted to 29 and in Portugal to 17. Countries in Central and Eastern Europe, with the exception of the Czech Republic, have even lower densities.

Despite this large range in the robot densities of the European countries mentioned, it is interesting to note that the robot density in Germany is about 90 per cent higher than that of the USA.

Robot densities – one robot per ten workers in the motor vehicle industry

Japan and Italy are in the lead with 1,710 robots and 1,600, respectively, per 10,000 workers, but, bearing in mind that Japan includes all types of robots (up to and including 2000), it is not comparable with the densities of other countries. Thereafter follows Germany with a density of 1,180, France 1,120, Spain 950, the USA 770, the United Kingdom 610 and Sweden 630. The technological level with respect to robotics is thus rather homogeneous in the motor vehicle industry in most of the above-mentioned countries.

Installations of advanced multipurpose industrial robots by types

In 2005, 59 per cent of the installed robots were articulated robots, down from 61 per cent in 2004, 20 per cent were linear/cartesian/gantry robots, up from 17 per cent in 2004, 12 per cent were cylindrical robots, up from 8 per cent in 2004, and 8 per cent were Scara robots, down from 13 per cent in 2004. A number of 74,400 articulated robots were installed in 2005, up 25 per cent on 2004, 25,200 linear/cartesian/gantry robots, up 55 per cent on 2004, 15,400 cylindrical robots, up 103 per cent on 2004 and 10,100 Scara robots, 18 per cent fewer than 2004. The high increase in the number of cylindrical robots is partly the result of better coverage of this type of robot.

Distribution of service robots

Service robots for professional use: 31,600 units installed up to the end of 2005

With 5,680 units, underwater systems accounted for 18 per cent of the total number of service robots for professional use installed up to the end of 2005. Thereafter followed cleaning robots with 17 per cent, defence, rescue and security applications with 16 per cent and construction and demolition robots, milking robots and medical robots and mobile robot platforms for general use, accounting for 11 per cent, each. Minor installation numbers were counted for logistic systems (1,130 units), inspection systems (275 units) and public relations robots (30 units).

Service robots for personal and private use: about 1.9 million units for domestic use and more than 1 million units for entertainment and leisure sold up to end 2005

Service robots for personal and domestic use are recorded separately, as their unit value is only a fraction of that of many types of service robots for professional use. They are also produced for a mass market with completely different marketing channels.

So far, service robots for personal and domestic use are mainly in the areas of domestic (household) robots, which include vacuum cleaning and lawn- mowing robots, and entertainment and leisure robots, including toy robots, hobby systems and education and training robots.

The market for robots for handicap assistance is still small, but is expected to double in the next four years. Robots for personal transportation and home security and surveillance robots will also increase in importance in the future.

Up to the end of 2005, accumulated sales of vacuum cleaning robots resulted in 1.8 million units. At the end of 2005, the stock of lawn mowing robots amounted to 79,000 units.

Projections for the period 2006- 2009: 34,000 new service robots for professional use to be installed

Turning to the projections for the period 2006-2009, the stock of service robots for professional use is forecast to increase by some 34,000 units. Application areas with strong growth are underwater systems, defence, rescue and security applications, laboratory robots, professional cleaning robots, medical robots and mobile robot platforms for multiple use.

Projections for the period 2006-2009: about 5.6 million units of service robots for personal use to be sold

It is projected that sales of all types of domestic robots (vacuum cleaning, lawn mowing, window cleaning and other types) in the period 2006-2009 could reach some 3.9 million units.

Figure 4 Service robots for professional use. Stock at the end of 2005 and projected installations in 2006-2009

Figure 5 Service robots for professional/domestic use. Stock at the end of 2005 and projected installations in 2006-2009

The market for entertainment and leisure robots, which includes toy robots, is forecast at about 1.6 million units, most of which, of course, are very low cost (Figures 4 and 5).

For further information, visit the web site: www.worldrobotics-online.org