Technology's Promise: Expert Knowledge on the Transformation of Business and Society

Citation

Donald Hopkins, H. (2010), "Technology's Promise: Expert Knowledge on the Transformation of Business and Society", Industrial Robot, Vol. 37 No. 1. https://doi.org/10.1108/ir.2010.04937aae.001

Technology's Promise: Expert Knowledge on the Transformation of Business and Society

Technology's Promise: Expert Knowledge on the Transformation of Business and Society

Article Type: Book review From: Industrial Robot: An International Journal, Volume 37, Issue 1

William E. Halal,Palgrave Macmillan,June 2008,256 pp.,ISBN: 978-0-230-01954-6,$42.00,www.palgrave-usa.com/catalog/product.aspx?isbn=0230019544

Would not it be nice if we could predict the future? If this were possible the world would be such a different place. We would always know when to carry an umbrella. We count on our stockbrokers to know which stocks will go up in the coming year. Economists could tell us what the economy is likely to do. As the current financial meltdown demonstrates, however, the ability to predict the future is a rare talent. If someone tells me they can predict the future I instinctively hold onto my wallet.

Technology's Promise: Expert Knowledge on the Transformation of Business and Society, by William E. Halal, predicts future technological developments in seven major categories of technology and their impact on society with accuracy of plus or minus three years. These predictions are based on a large group of experts in the seven technological areas. This effort is part of the TechCast Project at George Washington University and at William E. Halal's company, TechCast LLC. The seven areas are: energy and environment, information technology, e-commerce, manufacturing and robotics, medicine and biogenetics, transportation and space.

Predictions include men on mars by 2030, a cancer cure by 2025, smart robots by 2020 and artificial intelligence by 2025. The second half of the book predicts the changes that will take place in society as a result of technology. For example, one cited change is the creative destruction of institutions.

In an earlier book by William A. Sheridan (1998) titled The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions a history of technology forecasting is presented along with attempts to predict the weather, the stock market, population growth, economic growth as well as corporate forecasting. The author states in his chapter devoted to technology forecasting: “Analysis of the track record of forecasters over the past several decades shows that their long-term technology predictions have been wrong about 80 percent of the time” (p. 169).

Unfortunately, Technology's Promise does not present any evidence showing its track record in making successful predictions. It seems that this evidence would be necessary to take this book seriously.

William Sheridan quotes MIT Professor James Utterback for having said regarding technology forecasts: “The illusion of knowing what's going to happen is worse than not knowing.” (p. 191).

This book is an interesting read for anyone interested in technology or forecasting. I would take the actual predictions, however, with a grain of salt.

H. Donald HopkinsFox School of Business and Management, Temple University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA