Leadership and uncertainty: complexity and the lessons of history

Citation

(2006), "Leadership and uncertainty: complexity and the lessons of history", Strategic Direction, Vol. 22 No. 1. https://doi.org/10.1108/sd.2006.05622aaf.008

Leadership and uncertainty: complexity and the lessons of history

Leadership and uncertainty: complexity and the lessons of history

Artigiani RFutures, (UK), Sep 2005 Vol 37 No 7, Start page: 585, No of pages: 19

Purpose – To evaluate techniques for dealing with the limits of knowledge. Design/methodology/approach - Looks at how military planning offers an opportunity for studying how well social systems operate with limited knowledge. Reviews the associated literature, before exploring the evolution of social systems from the perspective of military societies which have to evolve or perish. Examines two naval leaders, Lord Nelson and Admiral Moffett, showing how they anticipated much that new science advises. Explores the constrictive top-down command and control which Nelson over-rode in his efforts to destroy the French ability to invade through a strategy of decimation and the building of a fleet he did not need to command or control. Investigates the social system aspects of Nelson’s strategy, suggesting that Nelson created a system that could read its own environment, detect threats and opportunities, and quickly respond with local initiatives. Moves on to the US Navy under Admiral William Moffett as a societal system operating under values, ethics and morals – social constructs communicating the incoming of actions to individuals – through the mediation of which, individuals rise above their status as component parts and glimpse societal wholes. Discusses the ethical implications that arise from combining complexity theory and the limits of knowledge, how behavior can be guided by the use of knowledge of how ethics emerged, and the social dimension of survival in dynamic environments. Argues that the convergence between the science of complexity and successful cases of social evolution suggest that the limits of knowledge extend the frontiers of understanding. Originality/value – Delivers a lesson in which success emanates from adaptability and flexible response, rather than prediction, planning and control.Classification(s): Top Management – InformationStyle: Conceptual paperISSN: 0016-3287

Keywords: Knowledge management, Leadership, Armed forces, History, Social factors