Climate Change Modeling For Local Adaptation In The Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region: Volume 11

Armando Lamadrid and Ilan Kelman

COMMUNITY, ENVIRONMENT AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT

Climate-Change Modeling for Local Adaptation in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region

One of the most prominent changes currently being experienced around the globe, including in mountain regions, is contemporary climate change. In the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region of Asia, climate change is of increasing concern since rising temperatures threaten to melt mountain glaciers and snow while disrupting already variable monsoon precipitation patterns, both of which will impact downstream water supplies vital to the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people. Mountain ecosystems are also important to peoples of the region and face dramatic shifts in composition and distribution as temperatures rise and the water balance changes.

This book aims to examine how modeling can be applicable toward local adaptation to climate change, using the Hindu Kush-Himalayas (HKH) as a case study. This introductory chapter sets the stage by summarizing mountain systems and change in the context of the HKH, especially highlighting the importance of involving mountain peoples in any discussion and work. Then, each chapter is summarized. In the final section, limitations and extensions of the work here are reported, focused on developing, testing, and implementing solutions on the terms of the people most affected without losing sight of wider contexts. Modeling is one knowledge system among many that is needed for adaptation and other development work in the HKH and other mountain areas.

Mountains provide more than 40% of global goods and services. The ecosystem services arising from the Hindu Kush-Himalayas (HKH) in the form of water, biodiversity and niche products, hydroelectricity, timber, mineral resources, and recreation are enormous. The HKH region is enriched by a diversity of cultures, ethnic groups, and traditional knowledge systems. Thus, it is a paradox that, in spite of rich natural resources and cultures, poverty is rampant. Additionally, the HKH is a hotspot for climate change impacts, but the region has been identified as a data deficient during the 2007 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since then, some progress has been made to fill the data gap, specifically relating to biodiversity, cryosphere, and climate change. This chapter introduces the HKH region and elaborates the need for modeling in the context of dealing with climate change.

It is now established by the global scientific community that climate change is a hard reality but the changes are complex in nature and to a great extent uncertain. Global circulation models (GCMs) have made significant contributions to the theoretical understanding of potential climate impacts, but their shortcomings in terms of assessing climate impacts soon became apparent. GCMs demonstrate significant skill at the continental and hemispheric scales and incorporate a large proportion of the complexity of the global system. However, they are inherently unable to represent local subgrid-scale features and dynamics. The first generation approaches of climate change impact and vulnerability assessments are derived from GCMs downscaled to produce scenarios at regional and local scales, but since the downscaled models inherit the biases of their parent GCM, they produce a simplified version of local climate. Furthermore, their output is limited to changes in mean temperature, rainfall, and sea level. For this reason, hydrological modeling with GCM output is useful for assessing impacts. The hydrological response due to change in climate variables in the Amu Darya River Basin was investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The modeling results show that there is an increase in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, potential evapotranspiration, surface runoff, percolation, and water yields. The above methodology can be practiced in this region for conducting adaptation and mitigation assessments. This initial assessment will facilitate future simulation modeling applications using SWAT for the Amu Darya River Basin by including variables of local changes (e.g., population growth, deforestation) that directly affect the hydrology of the region.

The paper looks at local experience and concerns in environmental disasters in the upper Indus Basin, widely thought to become more serious due to climate change. Emphasis is on the lives and livelihoods, responses, and concerns of those most affected. Several events and their contexts are examined. They highlight socially distributed and differentiated risks, losses, adaptive capacities, and available or absent protections. Cases at the village level underline problems relating to aspects of women's work and health; and how, while traditional practices are being enforced to ensure their continued seclusion and subordination, the villages and men's work are increasingly drawn into the modern economy and modernizing developments. Often these trends undermine traditional risk-averse practices but fail to provide alternatives. Some larger disasters reveal a disconnect between research and official responses, and expose the needs of local communities, whether in villages or mountain towns. This study examines how exposure and vulnerability to environmental dangers are a social construct. It leads to an argument for the “professional ear” in these contexts, finding ways to listen to those rarely heard, and translations that respect their concerns. Such work looks at conditions essentially invisible to climate models, and differing in character and approach. Arguably, it should come ahead of attempts to use model results to propose adaptive responses in these contexts.

Ladakh is an isolated arid environment in the Western Himalayas whose population relies mainly on glacial melt water. If the predicted adverse impacts of climate change occur, rising temperatures would accelerate the retreat of glaciers and place immense stress on the traditional Ladakhi agriculture and way of life. Very few studies in hydrology and glaciology currently document physical processes happening in Ladakh and only one project has combined climate data based upon measurements of temperature and precipitation, collected by the Indian Air Force in Leh town, and perceptions of local communities in order to explore the potential impacts of climate change in the area. This information constitutes the basis for climate change-related interventions of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), both local and international, and could help inform any future climate modeling. However, the quality of this data can be questioned on several points, it terms of accuracy, availability and, most importantly, usefulness. Moreover, this chapter discusses the relevance of this kind of data when the focus is placed upon the adaptation of local communities to global environmental changes where climate change may not be the primary cause. For instance, the region is also currently undergoing a rapid transition from subsistence farming to a market-based economy due to the integration of Ladakh into India and the growing influx of tourism. When addressing the broader context of environmental change, reliable, accurate, and available climate data and models could be useful only if used as part of a holistic approach. This approach requires research and interventions to combine scientific information with local knowledge and perceptions about the impacts of climate change to root the physical data in a “real world” context. It must also acknowledge other drivers of environmental changes such as unsustainable development.

This chapter presents a preliminary discussion of potential impacts of climate change on nomadic pastoralists on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Both climate model projections and observations suggest that (1) the QTP is becoming warmer and (2) precipitation is increasing. Evidence also suggests that (3) glaciers on the QTP are declining and (4) the permafrost is degrading. Nevertheless, little is known as to how climate change will affect nomadic pastoralists although environmental variability is likely to increase, which may again exacerbate production risks. Pastoral risk management strategies, such as mobility, may thus increase in importance. It is, however, difficult to translate changes in important climate measures like precipitation and temperature to effects on pastoralists and livestock since they mainly affect livestock indirectly via their effect on vegetation productivity. Consequently, to increase our understanding of climate change-related effects on pastoral adaptations, satellite-based measures directly linked to both vegetation characteristics and climatic variables should be utilized in future studies rather than, for example, overall changes in precipitation and temperature. Finally, official policies that constantly introduce reforms that reduce pastoral flexibility represent a far more significant threat for nomadic pastoralists on the QTP than climate change because they may result in the wholesale extinction of the pastoral culture.

Climate change data and predictions for the Himalayas are very sparse and uncertain, characterized by a “Himalayan data gap” and difficulties in predicting changes due to topographic complexity. A few reliable studies and climate change models for Nepal predict considerable changes: shorter monsoon seasons, more intensive rainfall patterns, higher temperatures, and drought. These predictions are confirmed by farmers who claim that temperatures have been increasing for the past decade and wonder why the rains have “gone mad.” The number of hazard events, notably droughts, floods, and landslides are increasing and now account for approximately 100 deaths in Nepal annually. Other effects are drinking water shortages and shifting agricultural patterns, with many communities struggling to meet basic food security before climatic conditions started changing.

The aim of this paper is to examine existing gaps between current climate models and the realities of local development planning through a case study on flood risk and drinking water management for the Municipality of Dharan in Eastern Nepal. This example highlights current challenges facing local-level governments, namely, flood and landslide mitigation, providing basic amenities – especially an urgent lack of drinking water during the dry season – poor local planning capacities, and limited resources. In this context, the challenge for Nepal will be to simultaneously address increasing risks caused by hazard events alongside the omnipresent food security and drinking water issues in both urban and rural areas. Local planning is needed that integrates rural development and disaster risk reduction (DRR) with knowledge about climate change considerations. The paper concludes with a critical analysis of climate change modeling and the gap between scientific data and low-tech and low capacities of local planners to access or implement adequate adaptation measures. Recommendations include the need to bridge gaps between scientific models, the local political reality and local information needs.

Bhutan is the smallest country in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region and one of the least developed countries in Asia. The most imminent threat to the country related to climate change is that of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) – floods resulting from a breach in the moraine dam walls of glacial lakes that can release millions of cubic liters of water within seconds. Given the topography of the country and the stark differences in altitudes between the northern mountains and south-central plains, a GLOF event could devastate downstream communities.

The Royal Government of Bhutan (RGOB), with help from other countries and the Global Environment Facility (GEF), has undertaken several projects to prepare the country for GLOF events, recurring floods, and landslides. These projects are creating an adaptation model for the country, and based on the implementation of the pilot projects, the activities would be replicated in other parts of the country. The pilot projects are aimed at developing three broad types of resilience: infrastructural, institutional, and community resilience. The modeling of the glaciers and glacial lake system has provided the authorities with measures for structural mitigation that can help delay a major catastrophe, reduce risk, and increase infrastructural resilience. The use of modeling techniques, glacial surveys, and the development of hazard zoning maps is only one side of the coin – only half the story. It has been coupled with the development of institutional resilience to manage disaster events and community resilience to cope with and adapt to changing circumstances.

Three conclusions are established in this chapter. First, numerous climate change impacts are affecting the least developed countries in the region, and Bhutan is a pertinent example of countries and communities already at risk to a changing global climate. Second, it is important to choose the “right” models that can actually provide benefits to communities at risk. The projects in Bhutan demonstrate that adaptation activities work best when they blend different forms of resilience. Third, there are numerous barriers to successful implementation of adaptation projects. These barriers remind us that no matter how great the benefits of adaptation may be in specific communities, accomplishing those benefits in practice will take time, effort, and targeted public policy intervention.

Bangladesh has a long history of dealing with seasonal changes resulting in droughts and floods. Three major rivers, the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) come to a confluence, forming the GBM floodplain. There is a specific time window (June to September) when most of the runoff occurs and over 90% of their combined flow is discharged into the Bay of Bengal. As a result, the seasonal monsoons result in wet and dry seasons, making Bangladesh vulnerable to both floods and droughts. Climate change will likely alter characteristics such as timing and intensity, therefore increasing the challenge of adaptation. Socioeconomic conditions and high-population density limit the country's ability to adapt to these hydro-meteorological extremes. Although climatic variability causes severe damage and loss of life in Bangladesh, examples of local adaptation to the annual rhythm of seasonal variation can be found in flood-prone areas. Scientific modeling has resulted in more robust and efficient early warning systems that have greatly decreased the loss of life from climate hazards in recent years. However, positive impacts from models are limited by complex social concerns that are pervasive across the country.

A variety of stressors have been identified that threaten the sustainability of water resources. The availability and predictability of water resources are at the core of considering the role of climate for humans and natural ecosystems. The hydrological cycle defines available water resources in a river basin, but to ensure sustainability, it is important to examine other factors within river basin borders influencing the quality and quantity of water. Preparing for pressures and building adaptive capacity require a holistic assessment of the current status and possible future impacts on the freshwater resources.

This chapter describes a case study focusing on the Irrawaddy and Salween Rivers that form a major part of Myanmar's water resources. Despite their importance, these basins have been little studied. The basins were divided according to ecological zones and terrain slope into subareas, and a vulnerability assessment based on 22 indicators was conducted. Indicators represent publicly available global spatial data on temperature, precipitation, hydrology, glaciers, state of wetlands, population distribution, land cover, nitrogen load, and water use. Indicators were based either on model outputs or on land cover and land-use information, representing variably current situations or future projections.

Besides describing the case study, this chapter discusses the challenges and opportunities of linking large-scale spatial modeling results to local-level management and adaptation planning. Challenges arise first from the process of modeling and input data characteristics that manifest as questions of scale and uncertainty. Secondly, the process of distributing the results for the relevant stakeholders (if identified and reached) can turn out to be tricky. Opportunities exist if attention is given to impact of scale and unit of analysis in (especially spatial) data ensuring best applicability in local-scale management. Also improving information management with a systematic approach in identifying knowledge gaps and synthesizing existing information is crucial for improving linkages between researchers, policy-makers, and local decision-makers. Finally, modeling should be developed toward acknowledging the value of the process of modeling rather than the actual results. This would provide possibilities for translating the increasing amounts of information into understanding among the relevant stakeholders.

Hydrological and climatological modeling is increasingly being used with the intent of supporting community-based climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) initiatives in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH), as well as filling critical data gaps in a region that contributes significantly to the water resources and ecosystem diversity of Asia. As the case studies presented in the previous chapters illustrate, the utility of modeling in informing and supporting CCA and DRR initiatives depends on a number of criteria, including:•appropriate model selection;•ability to interpret models to local contexts; and•community engagement that incorporates and addresses underlying vulnerabilities within the community.

There are significant challenges to meeting all three of these criteria. However, when these criteria are met, we find:•There is a clear role for modeling to support CCA. The climate is changing now and will continue to do so for several centuries, even if carbon emissions were to stabilize tomorrow. Models, and other scenario development tools, provide our best insight into what the future climate might be and resulting impacts on dynamic social, environmental, political, and economic systems.•There is a clear role for local CCA. The impacts of climate change will be felt mostly at local levels, necessitating community adaptation responses. At the same time, most of the HKH communities and countries engaged in CCA initiatives have pressing, immediate development and livelihood needs. Making current development and livelihood initiatives incorporate climate adaptation considerations is the best way to ensure that the choices made today can set us on paths of increasing resilience, rather than almost inevitable disaster, for the future.•To achieve the best of both modeling and CCA requires thoughtful and patient application of modeling, tailored to local needs, conditions, and politics, with communities engaged around all stages of generating, interpreting, and applying the results. This requires a rare combination of technical skill, cultural sensitivity, political awareness, and above all, the time to continually engage with and build relationships within the community in order to foster resilient change.