Prelims

Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling

ISBN: 978-1-80262-062-7, eISBN: 978-1-80262-061-0

ISSN: 0731-9053

Publication date: 18 January 2022

Citation

(2022), "Prelims", Chudik, A., Hsiao, C. and Timmermann, A. (Ed.) Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling (Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 43A), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. i-vi. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0731-90532021000043A016

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2022 Alexander Chudik, Cheng Hsiao and Allan Timmermann


Half Title Page

ESSAYS IN HONOR OF M. HASHEM PESARAN

Series Page

ADVANCES IN ECONOMETRICS

Series editors: Thomas B. Fomby, R. Carter Hill, Ivan Jeliazkov, Juan Carlos Escanciano, Eric Hillebrand, Daniel L. Millimet, Rodney Strachan

Recent Volumes:

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Volume 24 Measurement Error: Consequences, Applications and Solutions – Edited by Jane Binner, David Edgerton and Thomas Elger
Volume 25 Nonparametric Econometric Methods – Edited by Qi Li and Jeffrey S. Racine
Volume 26 Maximum Simulated Likelihood Methods and Applications – Edited by R. Carter Hill and William Greene
Volume 27A Missing Data Methods: Cross-sectional Methods and Applications – Edited by David M. Drukker
Volume 27B Missing Data Methods: Time-series Methods and Applications – Edited by David M. Drukker
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Volume 33 Essays in Honor of Peter C. B. Phillips – Edited by Thomas B. Fomby, Yoosoon Chang and Joon Y. Park
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Volume 40B Topics in Identification, Limited Dependent Variables, Partial Observability, Experimentation, and Flexible Modelling Part B – Edited by Ivan Jeliazkov and Justin L. Tobias
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Title Page

ADVANCES IN ECONOMETRICS - Volume 43A

ESSAYS IN HONOR OF M. HASHEM PESARAN: PREDICTION AND MACRO MODELING

EDITED BY

ALEXANDER CHUDIK

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, USA

CHENG HSIAO

University of Southern California, USA

and

ALLAN TIMMERMANN

University of California, USA

United Kingdom – North America – Japan – India – Malaysia – China

Copyright Page

Emerald Publishing Limited

Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley BD16 1WA, UK

First edition 2022

Editorial matter and selection © 2022 Alexander Chudik, Cheng Hsiao and Allan Timmermann

Individual chapters © 2022 the authors

Published under exclusive license by Emerald Publishing Limited.

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ISBN: 978-1-80262-062-7 (Print)

ISBN: 978-1-80262-061-0 (Online)

ISBN: 978-1-80262-063-4 (Epub)

ISSN: 0731-9053 (Series)

Contents

Introduction
Alexander Chudik, Cheng Hsiao and Allan Timmermann 1
PART A1 PREDICTION
Chapter 1: On the Evolution of US Temperature Dynamics
Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch 9
Chapter 2: Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity
Kajal Lahiri, Huaming Peng and Xuguang Simon Sheng 29
Chapter 3: Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth Using Bayesian Quantile Regression
James Mitchell, Aubrey Poon and Gian Luigi Mazzi 51
Chapter 4: Multi-step Forecasting with Large Vector Autoregressions
Andreas Pick and Matthijs Carpay 73
Chapter 5: Gains from Switching Between Forecasts
Allan Timmermann and Yinchu Zhu 99
Part A2 Model Instability and Breaks
Chapter 6: Efficient Combined Estimation under Structural Breaks
Tae-Hwy Lee, Shahnaz Parsaeian and Aman Ullah 119
Chapter 7: Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts
Andrew B. Martinez, Jennifer L. Castle and David F. Hendry 143
Chapter 8: Finite Sample Forecast Properties and Window Length under Breaks in Cointegrated Systems
Luca Nocciola 167
Part A3 Macro Modeling and Policy Analysis
Chapter 9: A Meta Model Analysis of Exchange Rate Determination
Chrystalleni Aristidou, Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields 199
Chapter 10: Dancing Alone or Together: The Dynamic Effects of Independent and Common Monetary Policies
Povilas Lastauskas and Julius Stakėnas 217
Chapter 11: Measuring Productivity Growth and Technology Spillovers through Global Value Chains: Analysis of a US–Sino Decoupling
Weilin Liu, Robin C. Sickles and Yao Zhao 243
Chapter 12: Checking if the Straitjacket Fits
Adrian Pagan and Michael Wickens 269
Chapter 13: An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies
Alessandro Rebucci, Jonathan S. Hartley and Daniel Jiménez 291
Chapter 14: Government Debt, Deficits and Interest Rates 1870–2016
Ron P. Smith 323
Index 341

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